Forget all the indicators of which side the smart money should be on for the Illini/UofM game and just look at the teams. Anyone that watches Big 10 football, which sadly im forced to being from Michigan, knows that UofM should get murdered on saturday. Denard is a helluva running QB but is the worst passer in the big ten. Some how they keep being favored even though their 5 wins have been against awful teams including my irish. Illinois' defense will be the best Michigan has seen all year, and Michigan didnt have an answer for evan royster so i dont see how they stop Leshoure. The Illini being a dog doesnt scare me but the +3 (-100) does. Why would this be the case. What am i missing? thanks in advance.
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because they want you to question yourself.Comment -
even or 10 cents juice doesnt tell anything really.Comment -
People out there will bet Michigan just because of juice, which is crazy.Comment -
i guess sometimes you just have to bet the best team no matter what line or juice indicates. still kinda worries though lol I feel like Illinois has a flu bug going around or something that I dont know about. I want to bet this hard. Michigan is frigin awfulComment -
FYI there are definitely people betting Michigan. I am one of them. I bet Michigan -3 -110 as soon as it came out. Illinois is the "public" side, people looking for free money (it's not going to be found there)Comment -
Can you explain why you like Mich? They have no defense, their qb cant pass, 3 out of 4 plays are keepers. illinois is 12th ranked D in the nation, only lost to Mizzou, MSU and OSU. Common opponents arent even close either Illinois owned PSU.Originally posted by FlightComment -
the "public" side is why the even money scares me...Comment -
Everything you just said is absolutely true, yet they offered the illini at +3. So why?Originally posted by k3r3s
Cuz the play is Michigan.
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As an Illini fan, either don't bet this game or bet on ILL side...I can't figure any real reason why putting money on Mich is a smart move....but if anyone does have solid reasoning, please let me hear it...because, outside of Illinois turning the ball over several times (wont happen--Ill will call a conservative game and keep the ball in their stud RB Leshoure's hands), I just can't see Mich outscoring Illinois...Both teams may be in the 30's though.Comment -
i agree fishy lineComment -
Michigan isn't the play. These conspiracy theories are ridiculous. Michigan is favored because they're at home, these 2 teams have identical records, and people are all over Denard Robinsons cock.
Originally posted by BandoEverything you just said is absolutely true, yet they offered the illini at +3. So why? Cuz the play is Michigan.Comment -
Originally posted by BandoEverything you just said is absolutely true, yet they offered the illini at +3. So why? Cuz the play is Michigan.
I used to do this to myself a lot too. I think in the long wrong it's just gonna frustrate the hell out of you and make you lose money. I pic games the best when I do it casually. I still follow CFB closely but I don't study line and try to figure out with the books "want me to think". The books arent from the future. They don't know how the games are going to end. As much as people may want to think it's true all these games arent fixed.
In regards to this play Illinois is the most painfully obvious side. Anyone with a million bucks could make a lot of easy money playing Illinios moneyline. So the question is why is the line +3 +100? Because a lot of people are going to bet Michigan. A lot of people that don't follow football real closely might realize how much better Illinois is than Michigan. It's really not even close. If you keep the same players but switch Jersey's Illinois would be 10 point favorites easily. Michigan sucks plain and simple, theyve got a crazy quarterback that ran all over bad teams and then got talk for the heisman. That coupled with the fact that they are Michigan and playing in the Big House (which doesnt mean much anymore) coupled with the fact that people here Illinois and assume suck even though like you've said theyve only lost to 3 really good teams and played them all well. Theyve beat the crap out of bad teams as they should and beat the hell out of PENN STATE in Penn State.
Illinois defense is rock solid and they won't give up the kinds of points the Notre Dames and Indianas do. Keep in mind that this is a Michigan team that Illinois stood toe to toe with as they went touchdown for touchdown over and over. Illinois might not have the greatest offense, but it's damn good enough to put up at leat 30 Michigan and their defense wont give up more than that.
GO WITH WHAT MAKES SENSE, don't worry about what the bookies are thinking, worry about what makes sense. Easy money is easy if you understand the teams and their talents. You only have to worry about these obvious plays when there arent reasons (some outside of the actual talents of the teams AKA public perception) anyone would bet the other side. All the book cares about is that there is even money on all sides, they can't see the future unless a game is fixed and not many are IMO.
ILLINOIS IS SUCH EASY MONEY I ONLY WISH I HAD A LOT MORE TO BET
P.S.: I say Illionis is easy money tongue in cheek because after everything I said Michigan can obviously cover if Illinois is mistake prone which any college athletes can be on a given day. However this is an confident as I can possibly be on a sports bet.
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Originally posted by MendozaLine
I typed out that huge response only to see you summed it up in a couple sentences before me. HAHAHA
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It isn't a conspiracy theory, it is a well set line based on recent perceptions. Michigan can't beat an underwhelming PSU team, and Illinois crushed that same team. Illini are on a roll but when you look at it, they beat Purdue and Indiana. This line is begging for Illinois money and they are getting it, at a healthy clip.Comment -
The Big House is still worth a couple points.......
It's not like South Florida.
Look at Va Tech last night... they had no business winning that gameComment -
I like your avatarOriginally posted by JMUplayerComment -
Some people can have their fake maxim type pictures... gimme a girl in a jersey and jeans anyday.Comment -
Originally posted by JMUplayer
I agree the Big House is worth about 3 points....so Illinois should only be favored by about 4
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Vegas thinks otherwise.Originally posted by +EvenI agree the Big House is worth about 3 points....so Illinois should only be favored by about 4
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Originally posted by Intuitive_EdgeVegas thinks otherwise.
Vegas thinks they will get enough money on Michigan at -3 to make things even....there's a difference. Illinois is a far superior team and are the right play BAR FARComment -
This.Originally posted by Bando
The numbers I look at tell me to bet Michigan. Here is a quick sample:
Illinois OYPP 5.2 - DYPP 4.8 = 0.4
Michigan OYPP 7.7 - DYPP 6.1 = 1.6
If you were to make a line out of this overly simplified view you would get around Michigan -10. I have other methods that resulted in a similar line.
It is not a great play, in fact the more I look at the numbers, Michigan's defense is beyond pitiful. Luckily Illinois isn't that great offensively and defensively will be challenged to "keep up" with Michigan. I really don't analyze much beyond the numbers, so I do tend to miss intangible things, but I consider that to be noise anyway.
If it comes down to the last few drives in the 4th quarter, I like the chances in the big house with -3.
And back to the discussion about which side Vegas likes, it should be clear that they want as much money on Illinois +3 as possible. Some books have even moved to -3.5, with bets still poring in on Illinois.
I am not an "all-in gambler" like most on SBR however, so my perspectives tend to be conservative and slow. The edge is not significant in this game, and I would not bet Michigan at -3.5 (a 3 point win in the 4th quarter is very likely in my opinion).Comment -
I don't want to even persuade anybody here though. You may very well be right, and the easy pick is the right pick. Go with what you think is right and let's meet back in this thread after gametime.Comment -
I love Michigan, and I'll be wearing my Manningham jersey during the game---but I don't see how this game is even close.Comment -
Gotta go with Illinois.......Comment -
+3 even, means line is about to go to +3.5
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Michigan is a strong play imo.
1)Michigan in must-win bounce back spot at home. So they've sucked, therefore they won't ever play well again or??
2)Let down spot. Illinois coming off two blow-out wins vs. Indiana and Purdue at home, and are probably now soaring high with confidence. The problem is it's hard to go from destroying shit team(s) (especially young ones like ILL w/ not good leadership) at home to playing in big game on road against a better team than what they just faced. It's hard to keep focused and humble and to amp up intensity, cause playing at same level as they did in last two uncompetive games will get them beat in Big House.
3)Classic public perception "it's too good to be true" "trap".
Michigan's D is really bad though and Illinois' is pretty solid, but still say Michigan.Comment -
Michigan is now -4.5 at some books!Comment -
Two horrible head coaches going head-to-head.
I think Michigan wins; they "need" it more, even though Illinois is probably the better team. I like the Liuget kid a lot.Comment -
Illinois ML for me if I hear one more person say this is a must game for Michigan I will puke the only way Illinois loses this game is if Denard Robinson rushes for 200 yards and I dont see that happening! Illini have won last 2 games in this series and they are hitting on all cylinders right now this will be a big momentum builder for the fighting zooksters!Comment -
Over in total points is the safe play here.Comment -
Well I believe Michigan st is prolly a little better defensively then Illinois is. So Illinois defense is not the toughest defense they will play against. Also a lot of people think this game is do or die for rich rod. Really they have these next two weeks. Illinois and purdue to get a win to become bowl eligible. So this is there only home game since they will play at purdue. So they have a lot to play for today. And there last two are Wisconsin and Ohio st and everyone knows they can't beat them. So I am taking Michigan -3 and hopefully they play inspired. Gl allOriginally posted by k3r3sComment -
Wow that was a wild game.Comment -
Illinois covers the 3 in triple overtime?
Wow. Glad I didn't play that one, not sure my heart could have taken the beating.Comment -
i had the moneyline my heart is brokenComment
