There's alot of chatter about "this number is too big" in the Oregon game. Yes, it's a big number. Yes UCLA could cover it. Yes a downpour could slow the game to a crawl and keep Oregon from airing it out. Yes Oregon's QB could leave the game in the 2Q.
Alot of things COULD happen.
When you're betting, you have to ask: of all the things that COULD hapen, what is most likely to happen? In any given matchup, the best capper never has better than a 60-62% chance to win a straight sides bet. There are just too many variables to consider, and trust me I've looked at all of them (especially in MLB and NCAAB). I don't even post 2/3 of the shit I look at when capping a game. The post would be two pages long.
So back to the point: what is most likely to happen? You have to look at what has already happened (ignore history at your peril), and you have to look at team matchups. Do not allow that 48% of uncertainty to sway you away from the odds. Even if you only have 10-12% advantage, TAKE IT! Talk about "traps" and "this is a mid-week game, look out" etc, this is the language of people who are ruled by their uncertainty. Do Not be ruled by uncertainty. Pick what is most likely to happen, and then if you lose at least you can look at yourself in the mirror without second-guessing. Everyone will lose. You just have to win more than you lose.
Alot of things COULD happen.
When you're betting, you have to ask: of all the things that COULD hapen, what is most likely to happen? In any given matchup, the best capper never has better than a 60-62% chance to win a straight sides bet. There are just too many variables to consider, and trust me I've looked at all of them (especially in MLB and NCAAB). I don't even post 2/3 of the shit I look at when capping a game. The post would be two pages long.
So back to the point: what is most likely to happen? You have to look at what has already happened (ignore history at your peril), and you have to look at team matchups. Do not allow that 48% of uncertainty to sway you away from the odds. Even if you only have 10-12% advantage, TAKE IT! Talk about "traps" and "this is a mid-week game, look out" etc, this is the language of people who are ruled by their uncertainty. Do Not be ruled by uncertainty. Pick what is most likely to happen, and then if you lose at least you can look at yourself in the mirror without second-guessing. Everyone will lose. You just have to win more than you lose.
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