There's no debating that Oregon has the ability to cover a 24 point spread versus a banged-up, one dimensional squad like UCLA. While I should be fairly comfortable laying that kind of number with Oregon, their recent flat performances at Wash St and Az State have me a little worried about a 17-20 point victory if UCLA comes in playing not to lose rather than playing with a nothing to lose mistake-prone attitude.
With this in mind, I started looking into playing quarters or halves. Immediately, the Oregon -14 1H line jumped out as a steal for me. How can a team with this much of a class advantage over UCLA not come out a jump ahead by 2 scores fairly quickly at home...To solidify my lean, I looked into the numbers and that seems to have had an adverse affect on my confidence.
UCLA 1H 64-68 (-4) 2H 72-86 (-14)
Oregon 1H 198-85 (+113) 2H 128-13 (+115)
Oregon 1H vs UCLA 1H = Oregon +117
Oregon 2H vs UCLA 2H = Oregon +129
These number say that Oregon, while dominant in the 1H, are a significantly better 2H team. The fact that theyve increased their margin of victory in the 2H while letting off the gas pedal offensively attests to that. The most obvious eye-popping stat here is the mere 13 points Oregon has allowed in the 2H, defeintely #1 in the NCAA. Meanwhile, UCLA is fairly consistent over 4 quarters...so theres not much to glean there.
Despite these numbers, I still love Oregon -14 1H. Thoughts?
With this in mind, I started looking into playing quarters or halves. Immediately, the Oregon -14 1H line jumped out as a steal for me. How can a team with this much of a class advantage over UCLA not come out a jump ahead by 2 scores fairly quickly at home...To solidify my lean, I looked into the numbers and that seems to have had an adverse affect on my confidence.
UCLA 1H 64-68 (-4) 2H 72-86 (-14)
Oregon 1H 198-85 (+113) 2H 128-13 (+115)
Oregon 1H vs UCLA 1H = Oregon +117
Oregon 2H vs UCLA 2H = Oregon +129
These number say that Oregon, while dominant in the 1H, are a significantly better 2H team. The fact that theyve increased their margin of victory in the 2H while letting off the gas pedal offensively attests to that. The most obvious eye-popping stat here is the mere 13 points Oregon has allowed in the 2H, defeintely #1 in the NCAA. Meanwhile, UCLA is fairly consistent over 4 quarters...so theres not much to glean there.
Despite these numbers, I still love Oregon -14 1H. Thoughts?
Typing up my resignation notice right now!!!