Mind Blowing Lines

[Giant Rebels]

2 Lines that I need some input on.

1- Mich St -4.5 at Northwestern. What am I missing because normally when I love a line like this I lose. Mich St should be favored by 13? Please help bc I am about to put my house on it.

2- Kansas St +6.5 at Baylor. I can see this one a little but I like K state to win outright?

[thebestthereis]

wrong thread

[Giant Rebels]

I like posting in this forum bc the readers are the ones who actually wager on these events. Everyone else post anything bc they dont back it with CASH like we do. If its not supposed to be posted here then I can move it?

[thebestthereis]

college football forum, usually you'll get a good comment or opinion as long as your question isn't stupid which deserves a stupid answer...which is common. just be honest and ask an honest question.

[bucsfan]

I gotta agree with you Giant, as soon as I saw this line I circled Michigan State. I cant figure it out either other than Michgan State visits Iowa next week and maybe they think M State is gonna get caught looking ahead

[BigdaddyQH]

Michigan State goes to Iowa next week. That is why the line is so low. Your classic away team in a "look ahead" situation playing against a pretty good team scenario. I agree. This line is too low. 7 would be a better line.

[Harry N. Lloyd]

Boyz, They didn't build those huge casinos in Vegas by putting out soft lines. Michigan State is the better team but the situation favors the Wildcats. Sparty is coming off three big conference games and now have to take to the road and face a 5-1 Northwestern team, with a week's worth of rest. State is 7-0......someone is gonna bust their cherry. They've also covered 4 straight.....that never lasts for long. It's not as though Sparty is getting points in this one....they're laying well over a field goal. Gimme the points going in.

[Holdin Aces]

Boyz, They didn't build those huge casinos in Vegas by putting out soft lines. Michigan State is the better team but the situation favors the Wildcats. Sparty is coming off three big conference games and now have to take to the road and face a 5-1 Northwestern team, with a week's worth of rest. State is 7-0......someone is gonna bust their cherry. They've also covered 4 straight.....that never lasts for long. It's not as though Sparty is getting points in this one....they're laying well over a field goal. Gimme the points going in.

I agree I got this at 6.5 and bought the half to 7 when it came out. I will take Northwestern at home with 7 points. Fitzgerald will have his boys ready to play.

[Giant Rebels]

10-4. What I have strongly considered in the past is to fade myself when I feel this strong. I would have worked everytime, which is usually about 4 times a full season.

[steve18]

Northwestern got Iowa last year. It's very possible they could win here.

[aman86]

I think vegs is hat trying to trap people into thinking msu is too ez so automatically they take nw, happened a few times in the past two weeks and it turns out to be a pseudo trap!

[Sportsnut1968]

The Michigan St game looks to good to be true.....Wouldn't be surprised if NW wins this game

[docvinny]

Do you guys think the line will climb back up closer to 7? I see it at most books at 5

[kurt_06518]

if you want to win go the otehr way on both those games, baylor is one of my favporite picks of the day

[kboiler]

yeah, that MSU line is mindblowing. wow.

[TJHotpicks]

The Michigan St game looks to good to be true.....Wouldn't be surprised if NW wins this game

Totally agree with this one. MSU goes down becuase they will overlook the wildcats.

[Uncle Harv]

Posted originally by Dume Walker and I agree...

[COLOR=#000000 !important]Careful, guys...

Northwestern is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 against MSU.

Coming off 2 big wins (especially beating Michigan) and with Iowa looming next, MSU is in a perfect letdown spot.

Home team is 4-1 in this series and they're playing at N'Western.

N'Western is coming off a bye week.

MSU is now 7-0. Last time they started out 6-0 (under Nick Saban) they got trounced their next 2 games.

These are all possible reasons this line seems lower than one would expect.[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#000000 !important][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#000000 !important]Sharps pounded the line to -5 immediately when it came out. The play is Wildcats or nothing.[/COLOR]

[22dsnyd22]

im thinking of putting a lot on Mich ST... but I lost my last big bet. I love this though. Not sure if that is a good thing or a bad thing at this point

[LT Profits]

I am surprised no one has mentioned the fact that this is Michigan State's first game all year outside the state of Michigan.

[d2bets]

I am surprised no one has mentioned the fact that this is Michigan State's first game all year outside the state of Michigan.

Right. MSU hasn't done much on the road, except beat a faltering and overrated Michigan bunch. Northwestern is feisty. Line looks spot on to me. MSU is not the 8th best team in the country either.

[clarkd32]

have to agree with bigdaddy's logic... a look ahead game for mich st with iowa on deck is part of the reason why imo.

[rochestertitans]

nw wins outright dont get fooled

[GatorTD]

2 Lines that I need some input on.

1- Mich St -4.5 at Northwestern. What am I missing because normally when I love a line like this I lose. Mich St should be favored by 13? Please help bc I am about to put my house on it.

2- Kansas St +6.5 at Baylor. I can see this one a little but I like K state to win outright?

I think the Michigan State line has been talked about, but Ill bring it up plus add a nice juicy tidbit or two.

#1. MSU is starting to get in the public eye. Wins over Michigan and Notre Dame, despite how they may actually be do catch casual gamblers attention. Not only that, but now you have Michigan State having on their record a win over Wisconsin, who just punished a #1 team in the land. Casual bettors will ride teams that have that kind of resume in this point in the season and for books, its like smelling blood.

#2. MSU is coming off 2 weeks of very physical football. Wisconsin is a physical team. Illinois has been making their living with a good running back who keeps it between the tackles. Being beaten up by these physical teams week after week starts to take its toll.

#3. MSU did not play very well last week against Illinois. I had MSU -7 and was able to watch it. Illinois was the better team in the first half, even leading at the break 6-3. The offense was stagnant, but some Illinois turnovers (and the fact they are Illinois) got them going in the 2nd half to get the win.

#4. And most important, if youre a better. Remember the 'smelling blood'? When books smell blood, sharps go the other way. Whoever said it should be a 7 point spread...Well it was. This game opened at 7. Its now at 4.5 despite 82% of the bets going the way of MSU via Pregame and 78% via TheSpread. RLM can give you some damn good plays (Arkansas State vs Indiana last week comes to mind). I dont like betting against the people who do this for a living.


To go on the Baylor front..

Given the state of things, Robert Griffin may be the Big XII's best quarterback. You saw what Taylor Martinez did as a dual threat QB. UCF's QB ran for 100 yards as well on the K-State defense. Griffin is just as capable and is a much better thrower as both of those guys. My guess is this spread is sitting where its at because because K-State's win against a rather toothless Jayhawk team doesnt really mean much in the grand scheme of things. At least thats my take on it.

[GT Hoosier]

Dang, I feel like when it's a reverse trap with everyone "knowing better" and thinking NU will pull the upset. Small play on MSU for me or pass I guess.

[RibbedTrojan]

Like Nw and Baylor. GL to all

[gafl]

Game sets up nicely for NW. Having a week off won't hurt.

[THE PROFIT]

True line should be MichSt-9, but its not & theres a reason

[THE PROFIT]

The last 8 games theyve played outside of Michigan they have lost 6 SU

[THE PROFIT]

The Baylor line has me puzzled also. The L6 games these teams have played Baylor has been DD dogs, some BIG DD dogs. They have a horrible defense, they are 5-1 somehow, but it will come to an end. They havent been to a bowl in years. Winning 6 games is a problem for this team, I dont see it happening right now. KST got flogged by Nebraska, then laid a fukin on Kansas. I can see this team being very pissed off at the thought of being an underdog to BAYLOR?????


my mistake, in 2006 KST stunk & were a 1pt dog & lost to Baylor that year, but have been 20-30 point favs the others. KST is too good to be getting 6 IMO

[JayTrotter]

This is the first time either of these teams go on the "road".. First game out of state for both. Beating Kansas by nearly 50 is becoming a routine..

Baylor beat them 55-7, K state 59-7.. I would pose a question, who is a better QB, T Magic from Nebraska, or Robert Griffin III? We saw what Nebraska did to K State with their running QB... what happens when they face Griffin on the road?

[Jnas]

The Baylor line looks correct. K state is 5-1 but I think Baylor is a bit better. Baylor got smoked by TCU which is understandable and played a close one with Tex Tech.

[MadTiger]

Michigan State goes to Iowa next week. That is why the line is so low. Your classic away team in a "look ahead" situation playing against a pretty good team scenario. I agree. This line is too low. 7 would be a better line.

Excellent observation.

[jazzyj7]

yeah something is def. fishy here. I bet on them win they were at -7 with a teaser to get them at -1, but something isin't adding up. 78% of the bets are going MS way, yet the line is going down. This people that are making the lines must have insight that northwestern will win or the game will directly hit a 3 or 4. I think they have a way to see into the future or something. I might put a bet on northwestern now, so I won't lose either way.

[Giant Rebels]

WOW. i stayed away but would have hit big on a lucky finish.