Early RLM on a few games.....

linewiz · 10-19-10, 01:23 AM

Originally posted by ACCBlitz

Interesting to say the least on some of these.....

Syracuse/West Virginia - 4,000+ bets, 83% on WVU. Line goes from WVU -16.5 to -14.5
Michigan State/NWestern - 2,600+ bets, 80% on MSU. Line goes from MState -7.0 to -5.0
Marshall/East Carolina - 3,500+ bets, 85% on ECU. Line goes from ECU -13.5 to -12.5
SFlorida/Cincinnati - 4,900+ bets, 74% on Cinn. Line goes from Cinn -8.0 to -7.5
Oklahoma/Missouri - 6,000+ bets, 87% on Oklahoma. Line goes from OK -3.5 to -3.0
C.Michigan/N.Illinois - 3,700+ bets, 76% on N.Illinois. Line goes from N.Ill -10.0 to -9.5

Hey ACC. Appreciate this info. I know there is another big RLM thread. How much do you factor this info into your picks...these scenarios where one team is taking in most of the money but the line movement continues to invite you to take that team? Is it correct to assume that if Vegas is trying to keep the money coming in on one side that the other side is always the way to go? Also, what sites do you go to to get the type of info you show above?

Spend alot of time crunching numbers, but not RLM...wondering to what degree people think that increases their opportunity to win. Any input would be appreciated.

ACCBlitz · 10-19-10, 01:57 AM

Here's where I grab my info from: BetTracker.

That's a tough question. Of all the spreads I've wagered on, I didn't pay much attention to the line movement. Once I make a decision, I make a decision. My pick on a game I capped will NOT be based on "sharp money" or books moving lines for whatever reason. I may be crazy for doing it that way, but I guess I'm just overly-confident on my own judgment.

Now, for a game I haven't set in on, RLM is something worth watching. The Nevada/Cal game was a GREAT example earlier this year. Public was pounding Cal, yet the line continued to move the other way. I played Nevada based on some research, but mostly RLM - for experimental sake.

I think it can be valuable, but don't think people should bet based on just that. But to each their own ya know.

linewiz · 10-19-10, 02:20 AM

Thanks ACC. Definitely seems like a tool worth using. Seems like alot of people are crunching stats, trends, etc. that do not seem to bear much fruit when handicapping, particularly in the NFL. Seahawks at Bears would be prime example. Not sure what stats, trends, or comparisons would have led anyone to play Seahawks...other than the general profitability on dogs this year. Yet we know how that game turned out. Someone mentioned in another thread that sharps were on Seattle. Would love to know why, if just to gain more insight. Anyway, appreciate the response. If there is anywhere to go besides Bettracker let me know. Good luck going forward.

linewiz · 10-19-10, 02:30 AM

Take a look at this thread here on NCAAF format...
Applies to what we are talking about and very interesting

dume walker · 10-19-10, 04:51 AM

Thanks, ACC, for a great post. I too think RLM can be a good tool. A good cautionary tool. When you see RLM it should give you pause to ask "why is this happening" and investigate to see if there are reasons you should lay off a game or bet smaller than you normally would. This is not always necessarily the case. I remember reading in a pretty good book on football handicapping that a book can take in 250K worth of square action on a particular team and not budge their line at all. But if a sharp bettor they really respect bets 10K on a side they might move their line immediately. Point being that one sharp bettor might move one of these lines a half point or so. Maybe he's right, maybe he's wrong. But if a line RLM's 2 points or so throughout the week then I think you really need to question what's going on, dig deeper with your research.

The double red flag I'm learning to watch out for is when the line on what you would presume to be a heavy favorite opens lower than you thought it should and then continues to get lower throughout the week. Such was the case with Ohio State and South Carolina last week and with Alabama and Auburn the week before. One of the posters here -- Rudy Ruettiger -- mentioned that sharps he knew were calling for losses in one or both of those games each week. His post seemed on the money as the lines moved against each of those big public faves. Turns out 3 of them (Ohio State, South Carolina and Alabama) each lost in "shocking upsets" and Auburn did not cover (not last week but the week before against Kentucky). Well, those upsets weren't so shocking to the books that opened with lower lines on the favorites (inviting more action on them) and they weren't so shocking to the sharps who drove those lines even lower throughout the week. That double cautionary flag now seems to apply to MSU. A number of posters here were surprised to see that line on MSU open what they thought was so low. And now, not yet 48 hours later, it's dropped two more points. (Or 1.5 depending on if you pegged the opening at -6.5 or -7). These are games I've learned the hard way now to stay away from. Stay away from the fave, that is. Some might want to make a play on the dog that's getting all that respect.

gangeriver · 10-19-10, 05:03 AM

good job and beneficial thread. thanks ACC .I think RLM is more remarkable at college leagues.

ATS · 10-19-10, 05:35 AM

Thanks ACC good info

tripleblack1705 · 10-19-10, 09:03 AM

Reverse line movement

Certainly overrated

Books don't put on pads

Pete0 · 10-19-10, 09:21 AM

Thanks for the info ! I will keep an eye on how it goes :-)

goallinebob · 10-19-10, 11:52 AM

ATS Rankings on these teams,, for me its hard to play a dog that can't cover the spread,,but the ones that are close i can see playing the RLM,,, i think selecting the better teams along with RLM could be a better play what do you guys think ???????????

Syracuse,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4-2-0,,,,( ATS even Match,)/West Virginia ,,,- 4-2-0,,,, follow RLM ???
Michigan State,,,,,,,, 5-2-0 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,/NWestern -2-4-0,,,,,Play MSU
Marshal ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1-5-0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,l/East Carolina 4-2-0 ,,,,Play ECU
S Florida,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2-4-0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,Cincinnati 3-3-0 ,, follow RLM
Oklahoma ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3-3-0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,/Missouri -4-2-0,,,Lean Mizz???????
C.Michigan,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4-3-0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,/N.Illinois -5-2-0,,,Follow RLM,,,

Sean81 · 10-19-10, 12:04 PM

Thanks ACC, nice info

balls2wall · 10-19-10, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by dume walker

Thanks, ACC, for a great post. I too think RLM can be a good tool. A good cautionary tool. When you see RLM it should give you pause to ask "why is this happening" and investigate to see if there are reasons you should lay off a game or bet smaller than you normally would. This is not always necessarily the case. I remember reading in a pretty good book on football handicapping that a book can take in 250K worth of square action on a particular team and not budge their line at all. But if a sharp bettor they really respect bets 10K on a side they might move their line immediately. Point being that one sharp bettor might move one of these lines a half point or so. Maybe he's right, maybe he's wrong. But if a line RLM's 2 points or so throughout the week then I think you really need to question what's going on, dig deeper with your research.

The double red flag I'm learning to watch out for is when the line on what you would presume to be a heavy favorite opens lower than you thought it should and then continues to get lower throughout the week. Such was the case with Ohio State and South Carolina last week and with Alabama and Auburn the week before. One of the posters here -- Rudy Ruettiger -- mentioned that sharps he knew were calling for losses in one or both of those games each week. His post seemed on the money as the lines moved against each of those big public faves. Turns out 3 of them (Ohio State, South Carolina and Alabama) each lost in "shocking upsets" and Auburn did not cover (not last week but the week before against Kentucky). Well, those upsets weren't so shocking to the books that opened with lower lines on the favorites (inviting more action on them) and they weren't so shocking to the sharps who drove those lines even lower throughout the week. That double cautionary flag now seems to apply to MSU. A number of posters here were surprised to see that line on MSU open what they thought was so low. And now, not yet 48 hours later, it's dropped two more points. (Or 1.5 depending on if you pegged the opening at -6.5 or -7). These are games I've learned the hard way now to stay away from. Stay away from the fave, that is. Some might want to make a play on the dog that's getting all that respect.

good post

Timp · 10-19-10, 02:06 PM

So what does it mean n what does R L M picking then?

Uncle Harv · 10-19-10, 03:29 PM

Well RLM certainly wasnt overrated in Arizona/Iowa or Wash/Oregon St....nice post. I think the Northwestern RLM has serious potential this wk.

ferndog · 10-19-10, 03:44 PM

Public is always on favs...sharps like dogs..... People sometimes forget that a team that is 6-0 SU playing a team that is 2-4 SU is not as easy a bet as you might think. Teams that have a good record might have been playing at a very high level during the streak & could have a letdown, especially vs a team that they are expected to win easily against. So sometimes sharps anticipate public action on what is perceived as the better team & pound the dog. There are times when the dog is just more motivated to win than the fav.

orangeheaven · 10-19-10, 04:31 PM

ACC thanks for the link and info.

balls2wall · 10-19-10, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by Timp

So what does it mean n what does R L M picking then?

i have read this like 5 times and may be more confused than when I read it the first time

ferndog · 10-19-10, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by balls2wall

i have read this like 5 times and may be more confused than when I read it the first time

I think it means what are you doing when you pick rlm games