Get on this before the line moves. Oregon is going to get in dat ass. 
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What I like about this game is that it's being played in Autzen and Oregon is coming off a bye week. Time for its injured players to heal. Also being played on a Thursday night. Opportunity to show off solo in front of a national audience.
What makes me apprehensive is I don't believe Oregon's ever been ranked #1 before. That can do strange things to you. Two #1 teams just went down in successive weeks.
Also both QB Darron Thomas and RB Kenjon Barner were injured last game. Barner was taken off the field in an ambulance and hospitalized.
Add to that Oregon did not beat the spread that game against perennial patsy Washington State and they've got USC looming the week after.
Maybe UCLA will shoot itself in the foot and never threaten, but with all those other factors I'm not sure how much Oregon will be willing to keep its foot on the gas and hold that spread. Might be content with a two TD win. Much the same way they did with AZ State with Stanford looming.Comment -
I see this as a let down spot for oregon...they didn't use the bye week focusing just on ucla. They'll win but I see it by 17-21Comment -
ShutupwiggeruclacoversyousquarefukComment -
UCLA covers the first half.Comment -
naw i like ducks 1st halfComment -
turnovers turnovers turnoversComment -
I like Oregon for a small play here.Comment -
The line has moved to -22.5 already. Vegas is scared.
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I like the play. Key is the defense if they cover the big number.Comment -
Ucla mlComment -
Oregon will be looking ahead to the USC game while UCLA will be treating this like the super bowl. UCLA covers.Comment -
I like oregon in this one by at least two touchdowns. but i do see ucla playing it close in the first half before oregon get their offense rollingComment -
this good be a spot where oregon is looking ahead and is thomas playing.Comment -
guys, they're not number 1 in the bcs. if you don't think they will destroy ucla and get mad style points you're mistaken.
oklahoma number one is a complete smack in the face to oregon. just keep this in mind. i'm not saying i will lay over 3 tds on them, but i would never even consider ucla or that oregon will be looking ahead to usc.Comment -
Respect your opinion, Tex, but disagree on part of this. Boise and TCU need style points to get into championship game. Oregon does not and they know it. All they need to do is win out. BCS analysts on ESPN basically confirmed this. So that means they need that W for each game, not a big spread win. Which, in turn, means they won't risk injuries to get or maintain big spreads. Thomas may be starting but how long will they keep him in there if they get a 2 TD lead? They won't risk re-injuring that shoulder with USC coming up. Same thing Ohio State did in the Indiana game. They had Pryor pass from the pocket. Never let him run once. Did not want to risk reinjuring his leg with Wisconsin coming up. (Irony is they still beat the spread against Indiana and lost outright to Wisky.) Yeah, the Ducks backup did well last week but that was against WSU. Also doubt if they start Barner. I just keep remembering that Az State game where they could have scored every 2 minutes and nearly the whole second half they just kept giving James the ball to run out the clock.
I'm with you on not going with UCLA, but I'm also with you on not laying 3 TD's on Oregon for this game.Comment -
very good post dume. i just think there are too many instances that could arise with unbeatens vying for spots 1 and 2 (or if alabama plows over their schedule, which is way more difficult than oregon's) that a stylish win over a team that beat texas will earn them major points with the computers. i don't know how the computers think though. i can see them being psyched for this game and not looking ahead to a nobody like usc who hasn't beaten anyone.
you know your shit dume. nice to see your side.Comment -
Take the over Oregon will score 60 pts themselves
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Great post, Dume. I still think they pull starters, play to run game clock and still cover the 20.5. Just my opinion and we'll find out. BOL!Comment -
Oregon does not do this chip kelly preaches "win the day" and has the words painted all over the damn stadium. Yes Thomas started practicing full speed as early as last friday and stated his shoulder was 100%.
Haha maybe not quite by themselves but over should certainly cash. Oregon TT over (whatever the number-should be like 40-45ish) will be gravy.Comment -
over 60,5Comment -
One more point on this regarding Tex' comment on "not knowing how computers think". (And thanks for the props, Tex and Surf. I appreciate them.) I'm not certain either of all the programming that goes into them, but another comment was made on College Football Live today while they had their BCS expert on the set. One of the guys mentioned that Margin of Victory is not part of the computer programming. And I do seem to remember this point being made a few years ago. That they would no longer factor it in because too many of the power programs were beating the hell out of weaker teams to improve their computer numbers. This same analyst mentioned that for non-AQ teams like Boise and TCU (and I think we should start adding Utah into the mix) these big win style points did matter -- not for the computers -- but for the poll voters who determine how high they go in those rankings. If one of these non-AQ teams begins having narrow escapes against the softer teams on their schedule they'll drop in the polls which will effect their overall BCS ranking.
I mention this again in regard to Oregon because -- IMO -- they have to know that now that they're ranked #1 all they have to do is win out. And when you know that you have to be ready to yank less-than-100% starters from the game once it appears in hand. As to Thomas saying he's 100% I've come to look at these injury reports with a very skeptical eye. College football injury reports are not like company earning reports where they have to tell you the whole truth or they're in trouble. A college football coach and player have a different agenda -- and it is not giving accurate information to gamblers. It is to make it as difficult as possible for the opposing coaches to game plan for them. Which might mean saying key players are in better shape than they are. This is another lesson I learned the hard way a couple weeks ago taking Florida against LSU. All week I tried to track injury reports on QB Brantley. On media day he said nothing about injuries. One of the assistant coaches said he was doing great. Then just before the game starts they show him on TV with his freaking throwing hand in a bandage and the sideline announcer stating how he also had 4 broken ribs and had also injured his throwing shoulder from having to adjust his delivery because of all his injuries. They also showed Demps -- who had been listed as 80% and ready to go -- on the sideline, benched for the game. LSU won that game outright at the Swamp.
One final note on how this affects game strategy -- when you're ranked #1 -- and I think it's similar to what I heard said about Saban this week when his team was beating Ole Miss but not covering the spread. That Bama's game philosophy is to get ahead and then close out the game as soon as you can. Running the ball and throwing only when you need to. Which lessens the likelihood of covering big spreads. Again, the agenda shifts when you're #1. Oregon got what they wanted with their big wins. They got to #1. Now they're in the driver's seat. So their agenda now might -- and I state "might" (who knows what these guys are really thinking) be the same. Get the lead and close that game out as soon as you can. And protect your key players along the way. Which works against running up and maintaining big spreads.
Okay, that's far more than my 2 cents worth. I'm laying off this game. I do wish BOL for all you who are putting your money on it.Comment -
I look at betting against Oregon at home on a thurs night as a rule to some extent much like betting against Peyton on Primetime or Cliff Lee in October .. just not a good idea ... Oregon is healthy, off a bye, needs to put up style pts (not knowing what the weekend will hold for the other top5 teams) .. boise is on bye i think? and oklahoma has a tough matchup ... orgeon will not play down to them no matter how gassed up the bruins are IMO ..
45-17Comment -
dang, line up to 24 now.Comment -
oregon to coverComment -
Didn't I say this was too easy? Easy money, baby!Comment -
nice early call shroom.Comment -
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