Blitz Pickz: Week 8.....(29-17-1 YTD; 26-13 Spreads)

Smithers-Jones · 10-21-10, 11:10 AM

You're very quiet this week, anything other than Oregon?

ACCBlitz · 10-21-10, 01:15 PM

Yeah, think I'm having a week where I'm over-thinking instead of just capping and picking like I normally do.

I'll tell you now, I won't have more than a few picks. And this is likely the week to just watch mine for entertainment purposes only. But I'll have my other picks up tonight anyways.

The only game I'm confident on (and jumped on early for -21) was the game tonight.

UCLA (3-3, 1-2 PAC 10) at Oregon (6-0, 3-0 PAC 10)
Line: Oregona -21
Play: 1 Unit
Normally, lines 20 and up tend to make me stay away. I'm only (7-4) this season when betting on the favorite at -20 or higher. This one's a little different though.

The Bruins are one of the most bi-polar teams in America and their on the road against a juggernaut (in one of the harder places to play mind you) on national TV on a Thursday night. It will be LOOOOOUUUUUD tonight.

UCLA is 4-10 all time against #1 teams, and their last win was a while back - years before I was born actually, in 1976.

From an emotional standpoint, UCLA is dealing with off the field issues left and right. Oregon is riding high being #1 now, and motivated to stay in the Top 2 of the BCS.

Personnel wise, not only are the Bruins without Josh Smith and Morrell Presley, they might not have their starting QB (Kevin Prince). On the flip side, Ducks QB Darron Thomas is good to go ("We had a nice week to rest and (the shoulder) got better. Now I'm ready to go," he said).

I'm extremely confident on UCLA not back door covering because Oregon hasn't allowed a single fourth-quarter point this season, 13 total 2nd half points. 13 TOTAL.

Statistically speaking, it's a complete mis-match. Oregon is averaging 54 a game while UCLA allows almost 26. The Bruins average 23, and the Ducks only allow 16.

The weather is worrying me a little. I believe it's at a 60% chance of rain. But if it does rain, and this turns into a ground game, Oregon holds a MAJOR MAJOR advantage. They're running for almost 315 yards a game and UCLA allows 182. They gave up over 300 to Cal in their loss, and over 200 to Stanford. This Duck rushing attack is light years ahead of both of those squads. I'd be a lot more confident sans the rain though, so Oregon can really open up the run with a decent passing attack.

Oregon rolls. I can easily see 45-17 being the final.

udlock4life · 10-21-10, 02:06 PM

BOL

ACCBlitz · 10-21-10, 02:27 PM

Originally posted by udlock4life

BOL

Thanks lock.

Play #2

Colorado State (2-5, 1-2) at Utah (6-0, 3-0)
Line: Utah -30.5
Play: .5 Unit
I know, 31 points is a LOT to cover. Originally, I decided to steer clear of it but after diving even further into this in the last hour, I'm actually really liking Utah here.

They beat Wyoming on the road last week 30-6 to move to 5-0-1 ATS this year. Impressive to say the least. And that score looked a lot closer that it actually was. Utah QB Jordan Wynn threw 3 INT's and the Utes were stuffed on a 4th and goal from the 2 with 7 minutes left. That's at LEAST 2-3 TD's left on the field right there. 44-6, 51-6 would have likely been the total minus those uncharacteristic turnovers by Wynn. The total yardage showed how dominate Utah truly was: 431 - 183.

This is a night home game, and the Utes should be looking for another blowout, statement win.

Statistically, Colorado State is outmatched almost as much as UCLA is (mentioned above). Utah should be able to throw and run all night while possibly pitching a shutout defensively.

There are two factors making me a bit hesitant though: 1)The weather. Currently the forecast calls for a 50% chance of rain. Utah will still roll, but we all know games can go from blowout to just a big win because of weather. 2)Utah's game next week against Air Force. I can't help but wonder if the starters will be pulled early after getting a big lead. Surely Coach Whittingham realizes at this point in the season, it's more important to get the 'W' than win fashionably.

Despite the those two concerns, I'm still seeing Utah winning 35-3, 42-10.

ACCBlitz · 10-21-10, 04:05 PM

Play #3

Connecticut at Louisville
Line: Louisville -2.5
Play: .5 Unit
This one was low on my radar at first because of how balanced a game this really is. The nations #3 and #4 rushers are squaring off. Both teams score close to the same, and allow close to the same. No Big East stadium really has true SEC/ACC/Big 12/Big Ten type of home-field advantage. Louisville's ATS record at home. Too many things said this could go either way.

Then came the news of Connecticut starting QB Cody Endres being kicked off the team.

The Cardinals will get a chance to hone in on red-shirt freshman QB Michael Box, who will be making his first career start.

Despite their 3-3 record, Louisville has really impressed me this year. They display an incredibly balanced and potent offensive attack, averaging 220 on the ground and 237 through the air. Their total offense is ranked #19 in the country. It's matched up against a Connecticut defense that's mediocre at best. They'll be tested by Cardinal RB Bilal Powell, who's coming off back to back 200 yard games.

On the other side, Louisville will have its hands full with Conn RB Jordan Todman, the nations #3 rusher. Problem is, if they can't get solid QB play Todman won't get a chance to change the game and this ones over by the end of the 3rd quarter.

On a side note, the Louisville athletic department announced 2 days ago that this game is a sell out. Packed stadium, crucial conference game, and ESPN coverage will only add to a slight home field advantage.

The only thing I don't like is Louisville being 1-3 at home ATS this season.

Either way, a minimum field goal win by Louisville is a great play. I like it to be closer to 10 points though.

Louisville 34, Connecticut 24

ACCBlitz · 10-21-10, 04:06 PM

So, thus far:

Week 8
Oregon -21
Utah -30.5
Louisville -2.5

North Carolina +7.5 was going to be a big play, but now that they have lost a few more guys, it's a no play. If anything I'd lean to Miami -6.5 but I really don't like betting against a coach that use to coach for the team he's playing (Butch Davis).

ACCBlitz · 10-21-10, 04:39 PM

Play #4

Oklahoma at Missouri
Line: Oklahoma -3
Play: .5 Unit
I know I'll catch hell from all you RLM guys (I'm one as well, but just like Nebraska at Washington earlier this year - I had this one capped a lot higher than OK -3).

The one glaring thing that's jumping out at me is the fact that everyone is jumping on the Tigers 6-0 start. But take a closer look. Who have they really played? One could argue Texas A&M, but they've lost 3 in a row and look like garbage. San Diego State? They lost to a BAD BYU team and beat an Air Force squad that's not as good as originally thought and Missouri needed a 60+ yard TD with a minute left to beat them. Their offense is clicking but it hasn't been truly tested. Obviously the Sooner D is not the best this year, but from an athletic standpoint, it will be Missouris toughest test.

The Sooner offense is bringing an attack the Tigers haven't seen this year. They're rolling up over 300 yards passing and over 150 on the ground behind RB DeMarco Murray. QB Landry Jones has been ON this year, passing for nearly 1,800 yards and 14 TD's to only 3 INT's.

Also, you have to take into consideration the mental aspect. Oklahoma has won 7 straight against Missouri and 19 of 20.

I'll give Missouri this - home field on a nationally televised game against the #1 team, they will have that place ROCKING. A field goal cover is rather low, although I can see Missouri being up enough to keep it within 7-10 points.

Maybe Oklahoma 38, Missouri 31

ACCBlitz · 10-21-10, 04:44 PM

Week 8
Oregon -21
Utah -30.5
Louisville -2.5
Oklahoma -3

Still toying with Georgia Tech +7, LSU +7 and Northwestern +7 if I can get them there.

TO9 · 10-21-10, 05:00 PM

nice job last weekend.. like the card again this weekend, gl

ACCBlitz · 10-21-10, 11:14 PM

Originally posted by TO9

nice job last weekend.. like the card again this weekend, gl

Thanks TO.

Third week in a row starting (1-0). Let's hope the other games follow suit. Sitting at (10-2) the last 3 weeks on spreads alone (won't mention the TT's). Like I said earlier, likely won't see anything but spreads from now on

Week 8 (1-0)
Oregon -21
Utah -30.5
Louisville -2.5
Oklahoma -3

Won't update my sig until AFTER this weekend, but here's the YTD:
(30-17-1) 63.83% - Spreads (27-13); O/U (2-1); TT (1-3-1)

SportNut · 10-21-10, 11:38 PM

Like all plays...not sure Oklahoma I like...overall pretty looking card..bol

ACCBlitz · 10-21-10, 11:51 PM

Originally posted by SportNut

Like all plays...not sure Oklahoma I like...overall pretty looking card..bol

Thanks. Originally I was staying away from it b/c of the RLM, but I don't like others dictating my play. Really bugs me. I completely understand people playing RLM though, I do.

I could be wrong on this, but I personally had it capped at more than -3 for OK, so I'm going with it.

ACCBlitz · 10-23-10, 03:40 AM

Late addition to the mix: Virginia Tech (-14.5) 1st Half. Don't like that hook but I'm confident the Hokies will be up 3-4 TD's by the half. Other halftime lines that were tempting: Virginia (-14.0) and San Diego State (-14.0).

Week 8 (1-0)
Oregon -21
Utah -30.5
Louisville -2.5
Oklahoma -3
Virginia Tech -14.5 (1st Half)

ACCBlitz · 10-23-10, 12:32 PM

Virginia Tech leading 27-0 at the half, covers (-14.5) first half bet. Saw this one late late last night on my book, couldn't pass it up. Week 8 at (2-0) now.

Really should have pulled the trigger on Northwestern, but I have a feeling Michigan State will mount a comeback.

Week 8 (2-0)
Oregon -21
Virginia Tech -14.5 (1st Half)
Utah -30.5
Louisville -2.5
Oklahoma -3

iMxth3xbossx5000 · 10-23-10, 02:27 PM

Love all the picks cept Missouri. Got to go against you on that one today

SamAceRothstein · 10-23-10, 02:31 PM

GL Blitz!

ACCBlitz · 10-23-10, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by ACCBlitz

Virginia Tech leading 27-0 at the half, covers (-14.5) first half bet. Saw this one late late last night on my book, couldn't pass it up. Week 8 at (2-0) now.

Really should have pulled the trigger on Northwestern, but I have a feeling Michigan State will mount a comeback.

Week 8 (2-0)
Oregon -21
Virginia Tech -14.5 (1st Half)
Utah -30.5
Louisville -2.5
Oklahoma -3

Glad I followed my gut on that Northwestern one and no played it. Spartans made that comeback.

On a side note, pretty happy - predicted the exact score of the Maryland - Boston College game in my Week 8 previews

- Week 8 Previews and Predictions

ACCBlitz · 10-23-10, 05:26 PM

Louisville with an easy cover, bringing Week 8 to (3-0)

Week 8 (3-0)
Oregon -21
Virginia Tech -14.5 (1st Half)
Louisville -2.5
Utah -30.5
Oklahoma -3

Won't update my sig until AFTER this weekend, but here's the YTD:
(32-17-1) 65.31% - Spreads (29-13); O/U (2-1); TT (1-3-1)

ACCBlitz · 10-23-10, 06:22 PM

Adding one more play to the card: San Diego State (-14.0) First Half.

Week 8 (3-0)
Oregon -21
Virginia Tech -14.5 (1st Half)
Louisville -2.5
Utah -30.5
Oklahoma -3
San Diego State -14.0 (1st Half)

ACCBlitz · 10-23-10, 08:10 PM

Utah with a blowout win tonight (59-6), bringing Week 8 to (4-0)

Week 8 (4-0)
Oregon -21
Virginia Tech -14.5 (1st Half)
Louisville -2.5
Utah -30.5
Oklahoma -3
San Diego State -14.0 (1st Half)

ACCBlitz · 10-23-10, 10:29 PM

Not too surprised if OK loses now, I felt they'd win it but Missouri is better than I thought. It's the San Diego State 1H spread that my jaws on the floor from. They held New Mexico to BARELY 80 total yards in the first half, but had 2 turnovers. We know they'll end up blowing it open in the 2nd half but since BetUs is God awful, I have no way of catching a 2H bet

Week 8 (4-1)
Oregon -21
Virginia Tech -14.5 (1st Half)
Louisville -2.5
Utah -30.5
Oklahoma -3
San Diego State -14.0 (1st Half)