I think I just found a system to beat the bookies.

[cgjeon]

I hate to have kansas +3 as my 1 of the picks because i think Kstate will take it as well.
but here is one thing. Why is line still at +3 when 70 percent of pub are on Kstate? Just a thought.

[MaltedHopsFrenzy]

Trying out a system.

I will have filter A and B.

Filter A is a good/smart play but filter B is a MUST play.

I will experiment this filter A and B and keep records separately.

10/14

Filter A : none so far

Filter B : Kansas +3 (if the lines dont fluctuate so much, this is the play. Will confirm before game)

I think filter "B" might be clogged, you might want to clean that sh** before you make your "wager"

[spongerat]

why wont' you say what the parameters of your "system" is

[greva]

i really like kansas +3

gl with your system

[cgjeon]

I think filter "B" might be clogged, you might want to clean that sh** before you make your "wager"

Not making any wagers yet. Just experimenting.

[thebestthereis]

Many systems out there never lose and will never lose. It's all about your bankroll and your goal.

[DangerousOne]

I can't say every sport. I only checked hockey and ncaa.
NHL seemed most accurate though. and I dont think NBA works with this system either.
I will check more though. I've been only looking in for 3 hours.

Well "The Bookies" have no clue what they're doing and you have put 3 hours into it so I'm on board, but you broke rule #6.

[cgjeon]

For those of you who are curious of my system.
I will explain it. Here it goes. Please bear with me and my poor english.

System 1
This system only consist of looking at the Percentage line(what % of betters are on what side).
First you have to look at the Opening percentage line.
If the Opening Percentage Line is around 55%-75% and if it stays above 50% until Closing Line, then this is a play.

System 2
However if the Opening Percentage Line is around 10%-35%, you divide the exact Percentage Line by 2.
Let's say the Opening Percentage Line for Kansas is at 30%. Then you divide by 2 and it come out to be 15%.
Before the Line closes, if Kansas Percentage Line is above 45%(30%+15%) then this is a play.

You can do this with RL and ML Lines. However if RL and ML Lines have two different outcome, then check back with System 1.
If it is still confusing or nothing pops out in the line then just pass the game.

A bit hard to understand but let me know if you guys have any questions.
Feed backs more than welcome!

[Takethebooki]

system 1 is stupid and system 2 is stupider

[Thirsty P]

Seems you are all over the place....I believe you said that you developed this system only 3 hours ago. And then you had a thought on a total then hours later said that you didn't feel comfortable playing totals. Now you come out with Hockey totals and a NCAAF total???? I recommend you abandon this thread discussion and work on your system.

[cgjeon]

system 1 is stupid and system 2 is stupider

As long as you understood me. I am glad.

[cgjeon]

Seems you are all over the place....I believe you said that you developed this system only 3 hours ago. And then you had a thought on a total then hours later said that you didn't feel comfortable playing totals. Now you come out with Hockey totals and a NCAAF total???? I recommend you abandon this thread discussion and work on your system.

In the previous post, i have said that this system is more accurate on NHL than other sports.
I decided to throw in the NHL totals because its hockey not other sports.

I threw in a NCAAF totals as well because this play went well with my system.
I just made this a play to keep track if it was good pick or not. not to say "This is the Winning Pick!"

All these are experimental picks.
I want to see if i get a good percentage on my system thats all.

[xYoungGodx]

sounds interesting...cant wait to see how well it works

[spongerat]

how do you know its more accurate in NHL? what sample size could you possibly have?

system 1 is playing a side the sharp and square bettors are on.
system 2 is playing a side no sharps are on but the public bets later on if it increases by 50%

what is your reasoning behind this?

[cgjeon]

how do you know its more accurate in NHL? what sample size could you possibly have?

system 1 is playing a side the sharp and square bettors are on.
system 2 is playing a side no sharps are on but the public bets later on if it increases by 50%

My sample size is definitely not big that is why i am posting plays to see if this works with more samples.
Comparing from other sports with NHL, NHL plays were more accurate with this system play.
I definitely need a bigger sample size. now the experiment begins.

p.s. I think NHL is most accurate because their RL lines dont change like basketball, football or baseball. They are always fixed at +1.5 or -1.5 and as you know moneyline is moneyline.

[JW Cash]

I am ready to beat the bookies...............lets get going...........

[cgjeon]

system 1 is playing a side the sharp and square bettors are on.
system 2 is playing a side no sharps are on but the public bets later on if it increases by 50%

what is your reasoning behind this?

Reasoning for System 1

The first people to crack at the Virgin Lines are the "Big time Bettors." Usually they have researched and waited for the line to come out and pound it on the plays they like before the lines adjust to the public. Then the Pubs come into bet what they like(Usually from touts or just square betters). There are possibility when it will go 60 40, 70 30, or even 80 20 but usually the lines will be adjusted to 50 50. I am a person who dont take public opinion lightly. I think they do have reason behind their picks so if the big time bettors' pick and square bettors' picks combined dont go lower than 50%(the whole time) i think its a good play.

Reasoning for System 2

You can't always bet on the Sharp plays because there could be injuries and players are sometimes called out couple hours before the game. Obviously people who bet early did not know this info. They had stats but no further detail.

These are my reasoning. It may sound stupid to some people, but as long as it picks out winners i am fine with stupid system.

good luck to me and to all of you guys.

[Nellyinctown]

I am confused, doesnt system 1 contradict system 2?

[cgjeon]

I am confused, doesnt system 1 contradict system 2?

Yes it does contradict sometimes, but not all the time.
When it contradicts just toss out the game. Let me rephrase it. these are 2 filters not 2 systems.
You check both, if they contradict toss out the game. If they dont and one filter is significantly favored, take it.

[cgjeon]

Adding :

South florida +10

[Chimneyfish]

This thread just convinced me to take Kansas State -3 tonight.

[cgjeon]

This thread just convinced me to take Kansas State -3 tonight.

Dont get me wrong. My opnion play tells me Kansas State as well.
Good luck on your play. I wont be wagering so take the Win.

[kopite]

I just decided not to mess around with the over/unders for now. I think I would have to look more into it.
I will just stick with the side plays and if this goes through well then i will look into over/unders as well.
I just dont feel confident with over/unders yet.

There are 2 lines i can compare with for the side bets (RL and ML).
However there are only 1 line i have to depend on for the over/under.
I would rather go with the two.

Guys I need some feed back.
What do you guys think about my system plays for now?
Leaning :

NHL
Detroit Red Wings/Dallas Stars Over 5½
Florida Panthers/Calgary Flames Under 5
St Louis Blues Over Nashville Predators

NCAAF
South Florida/West Virginia Over 45
Kansas +3

Feeling real strong on the hockey plays.

BOL with it all but doubt you can post you WON'T be "messing" with O/U for all the reasons you stated, BUT THEN you post 5 plays and 3 of those are O/U and then ask for legit feedback

Or did I miss something

[jotoha]

I'm not sure about your system/filters, but my plays are . . .

NCAAF: S. Florida +10.5
This game is against the public with strong reverse line movement (Opening 11.5/12 and now at 10). Also, these two teams are in the same confrence and match up well together with USF covering ATS the last 4 years.

NHL: Nashville Preadators -110
This goes against your system/filter, but this team has been covering for me and I'm going to continue riding them. Also, smart money is coming in on this team.


Best of luck to all....

[cgjeon]

BOL with it all but doubt you can post you WON'T be "messing" with O/U for all the reasons you stated, BUT THEN you post 5 plays and 3 of those are O/U and then ask for legit feedback

Or did I miss something

Nah you didn't miss anything. I DID say i won't be messing with O/U.
But Hockey plays i previously said i feel good about it so i will keep posting their O/U and side plays.
One NCAAF totals went through my system and i just decided to throw it on here.

Good luck

[sweethook]

gl. man hope you do well

[uhuhahah]

Trying out a system.

10/14

NCAAF
South Florida/West Virginia Over 45
Kansas State/Kansas Over 49
Kansas +3
South Florida +10

this is my parlay 4.

[falconticket]

You betting on the lines moving one way or the other or on the football game? I only play the games, I didn't even know you could just bet on what the lines do. I have a system for the games. Look at teams, watch games , decide who might win by a certain amount of points. If someone is willing to bet you on that (ie Bookie), than make a play on your team. Lines don't make touchdowns, players do. Good luck, but this has been tried thousands of times before. It will not work any better than a coin toss. Again, do not let percentages and lines make a play for you, only look at the line you have and make a play on the game.

[cgjeon]

You betting on the lines moving one way or the other or on the football game? I only play the games, I didn't even know you could just bet on what the lines do. I have a system for the games. Look at teams, watch games , decide who might win by a certain amount of points. If someone is willing to bet you on that (ie Bookie), than make a play on your team. Lines don't make touchdowns, players do. Good luck, but this has been tried thousands of times before. It will not work any better than a coin toss. Again, do not let percentages and lines make a play for you, only look at the line you have and make a play on the game.

Thank you for your input. The only way to beat the bookies, i think is to do what they don't want us to do.
good luck on your plays today.

[cgjeon]

$10.00 to win $223.33
Pending6 Team Parlay
Pending10/17/10 1:00pm NFL Football 210 St. Louis Rams +9 -125* vs San Diego Chargers

Pending10/17/10 8:20pm NFL Football 233 Indianapolis Colts -3 -115* vs Washington Redskins

Pending10/15/10 8:05pm MLB Baseball 901 New York Yankees -1 -120* vs Texas Rangers (C Sabathia - L must Start C Wilson - L must Start)

Pending10/14/10 8:05pm NHL Hockey 55 St Louis Blues +1 -207* vs Nashville Predators

Pending10/14/10 8:35pm NHL Hockey 57 Detroit Red Wings/Dallas Stars Over 5½ -125*

Pending10/14/10 9:35pm NHL Hockey 61 Florida Panthers/Calgary Flames Under 6 -240*




Just for a teaser, I like this parlay a lot. what you guys think?

[falconticket]

Man u got to beat the other gamblers. bookies get theirs regardless.

[Chimneyfish]

This thread just convinced me to take Kansas State -3 tonight.

Nice call. Let me know if your system produces any more plays for me to fade.

[cgjeon]

Nice call. Let me know if your system produces any more plays for me to fade.

Sure. I will have plays for tomorrow before game time.
Leaning Yankees MoneyLine for tomorrow and under in Cinn/Louis.

[TheThreeKings]

This is possibly the dumbest "system" I have ever seen. Unbelievable that people throw away money on ideas like this.