Why is everyone so high on UCF?

[Godsmack]

if it is such an easy bet then why the line reversal on such a high public play?


opening spread of -6.5 and now -5.5 with 78% public backing.....


marshall it is

[kurt_06518]

i think it is very clear that where the majority is and how the line moves means absolutely nothing cause games with lines that have moved away from the majority have been a winner for the majority time and time again. here is a thought, put some original thought and research on the game and pick the team u like. I didnt know the line movers strap on the pads and play the games

[wal66]

On paper UCF is far better than the line this game opened with even if you factor in homefield advantage. UCF could have opened as a 10.5 -12.5 favorite and still there would be a public percentage advantage on their side.

When a line opens OFF and it trends as RLM it's generally a bad sign if you on the wrong side of the movement. Obviously it doesn't always play out like that and yes "whales", "sharps" or whatever you want to call them don't always win.

When a game doesn't make sense and something is triggering you to think something is wrong it is often best to just pass. If you are forced by lack of discipline to play because it's available why not consider teasing? That's just a suggestion, not an endorsment.

[SR]

Marshall is an interesting story. A less interesting real Fball team.

[agharah1]

Marshall is wildly inconsistent. Got trashed by an Ohio State team that everybody and their mother's brother's uncle's second cousin swears up and down on a stack of bibles doesn't run up the score. Then they come home and dominate West Virginia for about 58 minutes. Then they get obliterated by Southern Mississippi. Now comes Central Florida, arguably the most complete team in Conference USA, and they're on upset alert.

You can make money on upsets, but not on coin flips. I'm tempted but tonight I'll stick with Hell's Kitchen for my entertainment.

[hubie69]

I'm on the teaser, got UCF in a pick and under 51

[zanman822]

Yea it seems alot of people are on UCF cause of the big win they had last week.

[kurt_06518]

zanman, dont speak for me bro and i think ur speaking for a lot of people out of turn, u r giving some betters absolutely no respect in their research. UCF has a top tier defense and very strong running game, marshall will have no a nswer and is possibly starting their 3rd stroing qb tonight. Even if they started their top qb it will be tough for them to compete and score, onloy chance marshall has is if ucf turns teh ball over in their own redzone cause thats the only way marshall can score

[Romanov]

Line back up to 6.5. Analysis? that point isn't too important to me. If it goes to seven though, Marshall becomes value

[Ralphie Halves]

It's great how nobody on this entire board is making a case for Marshall as a football team and what they can do. The one singular argument for betting Marshall is "that line don't seem right". I need more than that. Vegas is smart, but not "magical wizard behind the curtain" smart. One unit on UCF.

[WorkHorse]

I like the fact that Central Florida is money on the road covering seven straight.

I have this game in the 32-16 range.

[hubie69]

The one thing I will say about Marshall, is that they've played much stiffer competition than UCF, so take that into account if you're going off stats alone

[kurt_06518]

ralphie, u answered your own question, the reason tehy cant make a case is because there is no case, marshall is that bad

[Vinnybagadonuts]

This game is all about focus. If UCF is focused, then they should cover. Marshall's offense is below average, even when you consider who they've played against. Marshall will be focused tonight, if for no other reason than they play better at home than they do on the road, and it's a televised event.

If UCF comes out flat, then this could be an interesting game. If they go up early (10 points plus), then UCF covers easily; Marshall doesn't have the capability to do well in a shootout.

That's pretty much what it comes down to. Everything else is really just over-analysis.

Marshall always plays tough against big brother WVU, so you can toss that one out. The only other game that was close was against Ohio. Hardly on par with the athletic ability that UCF can bring (I say "can" bring, because I have no idea if they'll be focused for the game or not.)

UCF has made it a habit of beating up on teams they're supposed to:

38-7 over S. Dakota
24-10 over Buffalo
42-7 over UAB

It lost two games, both against better opponents:

21-28 vs. NC State (5 turnovers really did them in)
13-17 at Kansas St. (K. St. scored at TD with :27 left to win)

If you look at Marshall, you could easily throw out the Ohio State game, and even the WVU game (WVU isn't very good this year BTW).

Marshall lost 28-44 to Bowling Green (who is 1-5 by the way, getting their only win against Marshall)
Marshall won 24-23 against Ohio (but do you even know why? Ohio scored a TD with no time left on the clock, and went for the 2-point conversion for the win, instead of going to OT!! They didn't get it, and lost.)
Finally...
Marshall lost 41-16 at Southern Miss. (It was 31-0 in the third, when Marshall ran back a kickoff for a TD. After that, So. Miss didn't try very hard, but still outscored them 10-9 for the remainder of the game.)

So, you asked why everyone is high on UCF tonight, and not Marshall. This is why.

I hope this helps.

[jeeves]

UCF has a top tier defense and very strong running game

[rockaflocka]

Marshall has played the top big ten team and hung with the top big east team (nobody thought they had a shot against them either ). Playing at home, under the lights, nationally televised- they will get it done, throw stats out the window.

[daprospecta]

I like UCF.

[jeeves]

Marshall has played the top big ten team and hung with the top big east team (nobody thought they had a shot against them either ). Playing at home, under the lights, nationally televised- they will get it done, throw stats out the window.

MARSHALL 2010
blowout loss @ OH. ST
close loss vs. WV
blowout loss @ Bowling Green
close win vs. OH
blowout loss @ Southern Miss

UCF 2010
blowout win vs South Dakota
close loss vs NC. ST
convincing win @ Buffalo
close loss @ Kansas ST
blowout win vs UAB

Both teams almost beat a ranked opponent at home.
Marshall's blowout loss @ Bowling Green is an outstanding exclamation.

UCF is ranked 8th in Points Allowed & 32nd in Rushing Yards
Marshall is ranked 108th in Points Allowed & 105th in Rushing Yards.

Looks good, right?

But, I now enter into evidence last week's UCONN @ RUTGERS game. A hot UCONN team (with great Rushing stats) walks into the nest of a struggling Rutgers team on a nat. televised game as 5 point favorites. Final Score 27-24, Rutgers

[Vinnybagadonuts]

This game is all about focus. If UCF is focused, then they should cover. Marshall's offense is below average, even when you consider who they've played against. Marshall will be focused tonight, if for no other reason than they play better at home than they do on the road, and it's a televised event.

If UCF comes out flat, then this could be an interesting game. If they go up early (10 points plus), then UCF covers easily; Marshall doesn't have the capability to do well in a shootout.

That's pretty much what it comes down to. Everything else is really just over-analysis.

Marshall always plays tough against big brother WVU, so you can toss that one out. The only other game that was close was against Ohio. Hardly on par with the athletic ability that UCF can bring (I say "can" bring, because I have no idea if they'll be focused for the game or not.)

UCF has made it a habit of beating up on teams they're supposed to:

38-7 over S. Dakota
24-10 over Buffalo
42-7 over UAB

It lost two games, both against better opponents:

21-28 vs. NC State (5 turnovers really did them in)
13-17 at Kansas St. (K. St. scored at TD with :27 left to win)

If you look at Marshall, you could easily throw out the Ohio State game, and even the WVU game (WVU isn't very good this year BTW).

Marshall lost 28-44 to Bowling Green (who is 1-5 by the way, getting their only win against Marshall)
Marshall won 24-23 against Ohio (but do you even know why? Ohio scored a TD with no time left on the clock, and went for the 2-point conversion for the win, instead of going to OT!! They didn't get it, and lost.)
Finally...
Marshall lost 41-16 at Southern Miss. (It was 31-0 in the third, when Marshall ran back a kickoff for a TD. After that, So. Miss didn't try very hard, but still outscored them 10-9 for the remainder of the game.)

So, you asked why everyone is high on UCF tonight, and not Marshall. This is why.

I hope this helps.

Not trying to sound cocky at all, but the analysis doesn't lie.

Hope you took UCF.

Peace,
Vin