WASHINGTON STATE + 23 1/2 WILL not LOSE

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  • nobs
    Restricted User
    • 08-31-09
    • 4216

    #1
    WASHINGTON STATE + 23 1/2 WILL not LOSE
    Mark this down, Washington State + 23 1/2 will cover and this spread is just staight out nutty.

    Yes its true that the Cougars are not a great team but they are vastly improved from last year. This team comes in with a 1-4 record this year but they have been playing some very good competition and they have at least been putting up some resistance.

    In the last 3 weeks, the Cougars have played USC, UCLA, and Oregon. They did manage to put up 67 points in those 3 games for an average of 23 points per game. I know that they will be able to score enough against Arizona that there is no way the Wildcats are going to cover this huge spread.

    2 weeks ago, the Cougars held the lead late in the 3rd quarter on the road at UCLA. This team can play on the road, and in my opinion this game against Arizona is the easiest game they have had in a month.

    QB Jeff Tuell comes in with a 128.22 passer rating, He has thrown for 1478 yards and 9 touchdowns on nearly 60% passing. Last week, against a very good Oregon defense, he went 25-40 for 245 yards. Do you really think this Wildcats offense is going to totally shut the Cougars down ? NO.

    The Cougars are also balanced with a decent running game. Running Backs Montgomery and Mitz are both averaging over 4 yards per carry and this will open up the passing game for Tuell.

    The Widcats are so overrated it is sick. This team started off the season 4-0 without a real impressive victory and were thus ranked near the top 10 before last weeks loss to Oregon State. A 39 point win against Toledo and a 46 point win against Citadel have made Zonas stats look way better than they actually are.

    This team is not that good, and during their last 3 games when they have started to play decent competition they have been in trouble each game. Now they did beat Iowa after getting thrashed in the second half, and held on for a 1 point win against California, then they loss to a not very good Oregon State team. Trust me, this Arizona team is madly overrated and they will not cover 23 1/2 points on Saturday.

    I think the biggest thing that convinces me the Cougars will cover this is the fact that no team all year long has shut this offense down. The Cougars just scored 23 points against an Oregon team that was only allowing 15 points per game. They also held the Ducks #1 in the nation scoring offense to well below its average.

    The Cougars also got 28 against UCLA and have scored at least 16 points against every team they have faced this year. The Wildcats are the softest defense that the Cougars have faced in a month. Now I know everyone will say, but Wa State is 1-4 and Arizona is 4-1. This has nothing to do with records. The Wildcats will probably win, thats not what is at debate. The question is, will they win by 24 points and I think its clear that they wont.

    Wa State has been losing game all year long, but what is different this year is that they are putting up points on every team they play. They are also holding teams to reasonable scoring outputs. Gone are the days where the Cougars were losing 40-7 every week, but yet this line is still reflective of what we would have expected to see last year.

    Washington state is better than their record indicates and Arizons is less than their record indicates and Arizona will not win by 24 points on Saturday.
  • PeePee
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 10-08-09
    • 619

    #2
    GL, nobs. Will look into this play. thx
    Comment
    • dodgerblue
      SBR High Roller
      • 09-14-10
      • 232

      #3
      Good write up man. This one requires some extra pondering.
      Comment
      • Snevens88
        SBR Sharp
        • 12-04-08
        • 405

        #4
        while i appreciate the effort that surely went into your write up. Arizona is comin off the most stinging loss you can really have during a season. A double digit loss to end their undefeated streak, and it was AT HOME. that is a lot of the basis for this line being so low. what also goes into it, is that people just saw last week that wash st covered against a top 5 ranked opp. ( who i think has no business being ranked that high) and you can tell vegas knows people still have that fresh on their minds. hear me when i tell you that Arizona is a more quality opponent than oregon. Arizona beat this team by 40+ last year IN washington and if you ask me, coming off that big loss, arizona layin the chalk has a lot of value right here
        Comment
        • zephyr
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 09-19-10
          • 516

          #5
          Thanks for the good write up, nobs. I like this play.
          Comment
          • M.W.
            SBR MVP
            • 09-07-08
            • 1668

            #6
            The Widcats are so overrated it is sick. This team started off the season 4-0 without a real impressive victory....
            A win over Iowa impresses me.
            Comment
            • Jon825
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 01-06-10
              • 744

              #7
              a lot of good analysis. hope it pays off my man
              sbr
              Comment
              • InTheRed
                SBR Sharp
                • 12-25-09
                • 455

                #8
                Originally posted by Snevens88
                while i appreciate the effort that surely went into your write up. Arizona is comin off the most stinging loss you can really have during a season. A double digit loss to end their undefeated streak, and it was AT HOME. that is a lot of the basis for this line being so low. what also goes into it, is that people just saw last week that wash st covered against a top 5 ranked opp. ( who i think has no business being ranked that high) and you can tell vegas knows people still have that fresh on their minds. hear me when i tell you that Arizona is a more quality opponent than oregon. Arizona beat this team by 40+ last year IN washington and if you ask me, coming off that big loss, arizona layin the chalk has a lot of value right here
                I have to agree with you here in regards to the ZONA/Wash St. game. Zona is going to be playing this game hard. They lost to a very underrated Ore. St. team and they need to bounce back big to salvage their season here. They need to stop the bleeding in terms of voter opinion. A close game against the worst BCS conference team could knock them even lower and possibly out of the top 25.

                On the Wash St. side. Yes they covered against Oregon last week. But the spread was 36! They still lost by 20 and probably could have lost by a lot more. When you look at the other games they've played, regardless of the quality. Be it Oregon, UCLA, USC, or SMU, this team gives up points like a sieve. They avg. 43 pts against a game. You assume they give that up to a good Arizona team, they would need to score 20 pts to cover. They're avg. 21 for the season.

                But they haven't played against a defense like Arizona yet, who has only let up 10 or more pts twice to extremely good teams in Iowa and Oregon St. Their avg. against is only 14 but if you take out those two games, its UNDER 6!

                Arizona is going to outright shut this team down. It'll be over by the half. It will be ugly by the 4th and its only a matter of mop up points in the end.

                I see it as Arizona only needs about 30 pts to cover this game. They've done that in 3 of their 5 games this season with the Ore. St. game scoring 27.


                Nobs: You should have written this up as a blog post. Could have made the front page with it.
                Comment
                • aman86
                  SBR MVP
                  • 08-29-09
                  • 3115

                  #9
                  Interesting angles I'm too confused though
                  Comment
                  • DrunkHorseplayer
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 05-15-10
                    • 7719

                    #10
                    Agree with the play; the Cougars finally have a respectable offense and apparently the bettors haven't figured that out yet.
                    Comment
                    • Uncle Harv
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 09-30-09
                      • 238

                      #11
                      Did someone in this thread really say that Arizona is better than Oregon???
                      Comment
                      • Boscoe
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-08-10
                        • 2811

                        #12
                        Nice writeup! Nobs... you've been solid with your big dog picks!
                        Comment
                        • Terrapin Station
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-05-10
                          • 2583

                          #13
                          Completely agree with you, definitely think they'll cover.
                          Comment
                          • BigDofBA
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 09-30-09
                            • 19313

                            #14
                            Washington state is still a horrible team. I would never put money in them. They are one of the worst teams in division 1a.
                            Comment
                            • nobs
                              Restricted User
                              • 08-31-09
                              • 4216

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Snevens88
                              while i appreciate the effort that surely went into your write up. Arizona is comin off the most stinging loss you can really have during a season. A double digit loss to end their undefeated streak, and it was AT HOME. that is a lot of the basis for this line being so low. what also goes into it, is that people just saw last week that wash st covered against a top 5 ranked opp. ( who i think has no business being ranked that high) and you can tell vegas knows people still have that fresh on their minds. hear me when i tell you that Arizona is a more quality opponent than oregon. Arizona beat this team by 40+ last year IN washington and if you ask me, coming off that big loss, arizona layin the chalk has a lot of value right here


                              Wa State offense is playing much better this year. It is greatly improved over last season. It has scored on everyone at least 16. Last season it was held under 10 like half the games I believe.
                              Comment
                              • nobs
                                Restricted User
                                • 08-31-09
                                • 4216

                                #16
                                Originally posted by DrunkHorseplayer
                                Agree with the play; the Cougars finally have a respectable offense and apparently the bettors haven't figured that out yet.

                                100% agree with this post
                                Comment
                                • nobs
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 08-31-09
                                  • 4216

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by PeePee
                                  GL, nobs. Will look into this play. thx

                                  bet this one peepee. This will be good like Sj ST last week. Wa State will score enough to cover
                                  Comment
                                  • nobs
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 08-31-09
                                    • 4216

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Boscoe
                                    Nice writeup! Nobs... you've been solid with your big dog picks!

                                    Thanks man and I think this one will continue the winning streak. I say Zona by 7-10
                                    Comment
                                    • harlee71
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 12-02-09
                                      • 7202

                                      #19
                                      When you play shit teams, shit happens to you. I try to stay away from shit teams. Either play the fav or dont play.

                                      This is what I have learned.

                                      BOL either way you go!
                                      Comment
                                      • madworld
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 08-08-08
                                        • 251

                                        #20
                                        Love the write up, but can't lay any money taking Washington St. However best of luck.
                                        Comment
                                        • CappinTerp
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 11-26-09
                                          • 9650

                                          #21
                                          Nice write up buddy.It may be worth a shot but one thing worries me is that last week they played their hearts out vs. the Ducks. Do they have a let down/anything left.?? GL
                                          Comment
                                          • nobs
                                            Restricted User
                                            • 08-31-09
                                            • 4216

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by harlee71
                                            When you play shit teams, shit happens to you. I try to stay away from shit teams. Either play the fav or dont play.

                                            This is what I have learned.

                                            BOL either way you go!

                                            Yeah heard the same thing last week about SJ ST, then won by 15 1/2 points

                                            Heard the same thing about Hawaii, then won by 36 points

                                            Heard the same thing about Toledo, then won by 22 points

                                            I have won 6 plays in a row by a total of over 100 points ( all plays were posted and they were all "shit teams" )

                                            These bets are not straight up pick ems they use a handicap and the handicap is generally too hight because most people are like you and would rather play Nevada -40 than San Jose State + 40, because after all Nevada was ranked, and at home, and it was homecoming, and Sj State had injuries. There were so many reasons people gave why my SJ State play was a shit play at +40, never mind the fact that Nevada had pretty much no chance of covering the 40, they were ranked so hell why not bet them -40 points

                                            Comment
                                            • harlee71
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 12-02-09
                                              • 7202

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by nobs


                                              Yeah heard the same thing last week about SJ ST, then won by 15 1/2 points

                                              Heard the same thing about Hawaii, then won by 36 points

                                              Heard the same thing about Toledo, then won by 22 points

                                              I have won 6 plays in a row by a total of over 100 points ( all plays were posted and they were all "shit teams" )

                                              These bets are not straight up pick ems they use a handicap and the handicap is generally too hight because most people are like you and would rather play Nevada -40 than San Jose State + 40, because after all Nevada was ranked, and at home, and it was homecoming, and Sj State had injuries. There were so many reasons people gave why my SJ State play was a shit play at +40, never mind the fact that Nevada had pretty much no chance of covering the 40, they were ranked so hell why not bet them -40 points


                                              There is not enough room here to list the loses. Sure shit happens, but it is usually bad.

                                              Again BOL!
                                              Comment
                                              • nobs
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 08-31-09
                                                • 4216

                                                #24
                                                Nope, I havent posted a losing play since August 17. The last 6 plays that I posted have all won, all by at least 10 points, all by a total of over 100 points and they were all supposed "shit" teams. Of course, 4 of the 6 won outright and the 2 who didnt beat the line by at least 1o points.

                                                There are no "loses" to list.

                                                and there really is no "favorite". The handicap is supposed to take care of that and the handicap is usually too high. You sound like one of those guys who just goes around betting the favorite whether they are favored by 5 or 45. Thats a recipe for diaster
                                                Comment
                                                • nobs
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 08-31-09
                                                  • 4216

                                                  #25
                                                  Wa State has scored on every team it has faced this year. They scored on USC and Oregon and UCLA. All much better D's than Arizona. They will score against the Wildcats. Arizona will win but it sure wont be close to 24 points.

                                                  Harlee you are going to just keep burying yourself blindly betting Arizona -24 and other huge favorites like this. You are never going to be able to turn it around and start winning until you look at more than records. Sure, Wa State is 1-4, but they have played great teams and they have put up points.

                                                  the question here is not who is going to win the game, it is who is going to cover the spread. The answer to those 2 questions is not the same my friend
                                                  Comment
                                                  • nobs
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 08-31-09
                                                    • 4216

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by CappinTerp
                                                    Nice write up buddy.It may be worth a shot but one thing worries me is that last week they played their hearts out vs. the Ducks. Do they have a let down/anything left.?? GL

                                                    They played UCLA tough too leading late 3rd quarter. Didnt get the break on that turnover call late 3rd quarter otherwise they would have probably beaten UCLA and Arizona would be favored by 13 1/2 instead of 23 1/2.

                                                    Wa State is going to cover this outrageously overstated line.

                                                    just like San Jose State last week. San Jose State may not be that good but you cant give them 40 points in a spot that they end up losing 35-13
                                                    Comment
                                                    • nobs
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 08-31-09
                                                      • 4216

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by harlee71
                                                      I try to stay away from shit teams.
                                                      I try to stay away from laying stupidly huge points that cant possibly be covered just so I can be betting on the higher ranked team. I guess we are just different that way.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • harlee71
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 12-02-09
                                                        • 7202

                                                        #28
                                                        Nope, it is a no play for me. I dont disagree with what you said at all. I just dont like to put my money on shit teams. I play a lot of dogs, but I know they have a +ev chance to cover. What I am saying is WA St is a shit team and they can lose by alot of points real quick and their track record proves it.

                                                        I hope you win your play!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • surftex
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 09-23-10
                                                          • 125

                                                          #29
                                                          One thing I don't like about this pick is that Wash St. played both UCLA and Oregon in let-down situations; UCLA coming off the Texas game and Oregon off of Stanford. In addition, I don't consider UCLA to truly be a high quality team, and Washington St. is getting too much credit for playing them tough. Arizona will be highly motivated and pissed off, unlike UCLA and Oregon. I have a feeling Arizona takes some anger out on on the Cougars this week.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • zephyr
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 09-19-10
                                                            • 516

                                                            #30
                                                            I like the dog in this one.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • nobs
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 08-31-09
                                                              • 4216

                                                              #31
                                                              Me too.

                                                              23 1/2 points is way way too many
                                                              Comment
                                                              • M.W.
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 09-07-08
                                                                • 1668

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by surftex
                                                                One thing I don't like about this pick is that Wash St. played both UCLA and Oregon in let-down situations; UCLA coming off the Texas game and Oregon off of Stanford. In addition, I don't consider UCLA to truly be a high quality team, and Washington St. is getting too much credit for playing them tough. Arizona will be highly motivated and pissed off, unlike UCLA and Oregon. I have a feeling Arizona takes some anger out on on the Cougars this week.
                                                                Good points. And WSU's other cover was against SMU in a total lookahead situation (TCU on deck).
                                                                Comment
                                                                • chaz63
                                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                                  • 10-06-10
                                                                  • 9

                                                                  #33
                                                                  I agree with ya on this one bud!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • bobby boucher
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 07-22-10
                                                                    • 240

                                                                    #34
                                                                    were are you getting those odds?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • bobby boucher
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 07-22-10
                                                                      • 240

                                                                      #35
                                                                      sorry BetFair havent put up prices for the 17th yet thanks for the tip
                                                                      Comment
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