Wal's College Football Week #7 (Entertainment Purposes Only)

rhymenocerous · 10-10-10, 11:25 AM

One note on UNC - they haven't won in Charlottesville since Reagan was president.

M.W. · 10-10-10, 02:51 PM

Thanks for posting these.

PoweRay · 10-10-10, 04:26 PM

Good luck!

MartinBlank · 10-10-10, 08:01 PM

Wal, these are your projected lines?

Some large differences between your lines and the actual numbers...

KSU (-3.5) versus your (-14.5)

ND (-22) versus your (-11)

Do you pick the games with the largest deviation from your numbers?

Purdue and Syracuse are others you have.

wal66 · 10-11-10, 09:42 AM

Martin, normally I only use games with at least 3.5 minimum value as potential games. I then cap those games out from there. The problem this year is I haven't spent as much time on my end doing the research. There are still winners being suggested and for whatever reason I am not zeroing in on them.

I've been lazy and took for granted that my program was well. Then once it started out poorly I began scrambling trying to find the answer with the program and ultimately the problem was with me.

There is still time to get some of my losses back but reaching 60%+ this year would be a miracle. At this point I would be happy with getting the problem with my capping solved and breaking even.

svenodds · 10-11-10, 11:52 AM

BOL this week

naloboy · 10-11-10, 12:31 PM

good start for the ak. i do the same and narrow it down during the wk. thanks alot.

wal66 · 10-12-10, 10:48 AM

I am trying desperately to devote the proper amount of time into selecting a card. Problem is now I am doubting my program and myself and even though it is known to stay the course when it's going bad that is difficult to do.

One game does stand out though so far and it's not due to the program either. Also it is a total and I'm generally not very confident in totals but I really like this one.

I like the over 52.5 (depending on where you look) in the SMU/Navy game. I really think SMU will be able to attack Navy's secondary and even though Navy isn't having the same success this year as in recent years with the running game I still see them moving the ball and putting points on the screboard. Personally I like SMU here winning the game but not sure if they will make the card but still se them getting in 35+ points here and Navy staying right on their heels.

So SMU/Navy over 52.5 will definately be a play and I would feel comfortable with this line past 55 even.

wal66 · 10-12-10, 12:50 PM

There are 2 games that aren’t on my radar as plays per the program is concerned that are worth mentioning. They are doing some serious RLM, not the only games but these 2 stand out more than some of the others in my mind at least.

Pittsburgh @ Syracuse. Personally I liked Syracuse when the lines came, I mean my program had them as a 3.5 point favorite and they opened as a 1.5 point dog and soon after were getting 2.5. I hesitated when the line was going up to pull the trigger blindly because I was hoping it would continue to climb. The percentages of wagers indicated and still do that publicly Pitt is the play which I liked and re-enforced my decision to hold off. Today though the line has flipped and while the public number still show Pitt as a popular side the money has spoke loudly and I may very have well waited myself out of a play.

Air Force @ San Diego. State Now this game was never really even a thought. If asked I would have said Air Force without giving it any thought at all. The line action indicates that I would have been thinking in a very public way. This line has continued to drop even though it remains as one the heaviest games on the ticket for one sided action.

I haven’t decided to make either of these plays just wanted to bring them to your attention in case anyone wanted to discuss or has information to share.

RudyRuetigger · 10-12-10, 02:40 PM

Originally posted by wal66

Rudy, that's 1 and not 4 or 5 and as stated in this thread I acknowledged this particular post already and also went on the say that I later admitted I was wrong because I thought you were another ghost of Herman.

Rudy, since we are pointing out one anothers flaws one that I don't have is admitting when I am wrong or going so far as to apologize for being wrong. Might one of your flaws not being able to accept that you're not always right, impartial or completely objective? Oppps that is more than one, I apologize.

See what I did there.

Wal, again the insult to common sense for anyone that believes the Landers thing. That is 2 in 20 seconds. And when exactly did you admit it was your bad thinking I was Herman (that doesn't matter anyway) because the shot was taken by saying irrelevant.

Everyone has mistakes and errors. Are you also saying my title is contradicting? Wal this is a case of semantics.

wal66 · 10-12-10, 03:42 PM

Welcome aboard Rudy. You might be the first former book owner to ever find his way into these threads. Feel free to help those that may browse here with some insights into the common mistakes us amateurs make when viewing the lines. Maybe you could shed some light on the realities or misconceptions we have about traps.

You will find that the guys that come in this thread are enthused and enjoy their craft. So pull up a chair and stay a while Rudy and get to know the guys.

RudyRuetigger · 10-12-10, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

Wal, again the insult to common sense for anyone that believes the Landers thing. That is 2 in 20 seconds. And when exactly did you admit it was your bad thinking I was Herman (that doesn't matter anyway) because the shot was taken by saying irrelevant.

Everyone has mistakes and errors. Are you also saying my title is contradicting? Wal this is a case of semantics.

Waiting for a response here pal.

wal66 · 10-12-10, 06:20 PM

Oh Rudy, Rudy, Rudy.
Rudy this thread is for college football talk but just this once since you are new I will oblige.

Right or wrong I’ll not take back what I said about Brock’s stories being an insult to common sense. While they might all be true I just don’t buy into them. I make no apologies for what I said Rudy.

As for when did I admit I was wrong about you being Herman, I can’t exactly recall the exact thread but I know Shari had been accused of it and I spoke up and said, I actually thought I did it first. The comment about your relevance was made thinking you were Herman. It was an attack on Herman not you so doesn’t count.

Did I think your title was contradicting? I understand what your title says and what your thread says. I also understand how ngates can stand by his argument because it could be interpreted differently. You know what you meant so you have the advantage.

Rudy in the future we discuss football in this series of threads. Things other than football we try and keep over in Players Talk.

RudyRuetigger · 10-12-10, 06:30 PM

Originally posted by wal66

Oh Rudy, Rudy, Rudy.
Rudy this thread is for college football talk but just this once since you are new I will oblige.

Right or wrong I’ll not take back what I said about Brock’s stories being an insult to common sense. While they might all be true I just don’t buy into them. I make no apologies for what I said Rudy.

you already have made an apology about it and changed your stance on it as of right now i guess. Nina believes them also, so go tell your her she has no common sense as well.

Originally posted by wal66

As for when did I admit I was wrong about you being Herman, I can’t exactly recall the exact thread but I know Shari had been accused of it and I spoke up and said, I actually thought I did it first. The comment about your relevance was made thinking you were Herman. It was an attack on Herman not you so doesn’t count.

thats because you didn't, and if you did...it was pretty obvious you weren't saying it to herman, you were saying it to the poster.

Originally posted by wal66

Did I think your title was contradicting? I understand what your title says and what your thread says. I also understand how ngates can stand by his argument because it could be interpreted differently. You know what you meant so you have the advantage.

No, he was wrong and then tries to play semantics to save face.

Originally posted by wal66

Rudy in the future we discuss football in this series of threads. Things other than football we try and keep over in Players Talk.

Wal, my thread is listed in the college football forum, whether by choice or not. I believe you came over wanting to argue about this in my thread after i spoke my peace on it....so i might leave after 2 or 3 pages..

I like your threads wal, I think I will find myself entering them now more often, especially since you told me not to. (isnt that what you told me

)

wal66 · 10-12-10, 06:49 PM

Rudy, your thread started in Players Talk and that is where I started addressing it at. I never said anything in your thread nagative, simply asked if you would care to expand a little.

You haven't been asked to stay out just explained to that in these particular threads we discuss football related topics for the curent week.

I respect the people that take time in my college football thread and have done so for 3 years now. I'll not likely change anytime soon.

wal66 · 10-13-10, 01:05 PM

Air Force @ San Diego St

We often get too wrapped up in RLM movements and start to over evaluate the situations. I, myself have already laid off a game this week due to RLM in the Central Florida/Marshall game. What determines valid concerns for RLM and over reactive reactions to RLM I can’t answer, it’s most likely an individual thing.

There was some initial RLM in the Air Force/San Diego St game, in fact it was pretty drastic. The line opened at 4 and the bottom fell out for 2 days moving down to 1 before leveling off and starting to climb back up. I remained concerned but capped through the game anyways.

Both teams have played BYU, Air Force won at home 35-14 while San Diego St lost at BYU 21-24. So even though the games were played with different advantages there is still an edge to Air Force. Air Force also has the edge in recent meetings although I don’t personally put a lot of stock in that but it can make a difference to some.

When you look at the year to date averages for offense and defense these 2 are carbon copies of one another. Air Force averages 34.5 ppg and allows 18.2 while San Diego averages 34.8 ppg and allows just 15.8. Compare that to the strength of schedule though and Air Force is stacking these numbers up against better opponents. Not by a lot but enough to register.

There are no significant injuries to speak of that require serious consideration. San Diego has a slight edge in returning players but it’s only an edge on the offensive side. Obviously San Diego St has home field advantage and they are an improved team this year.

When I can’t find substantial reasoning to go against or stay away from what my program indicates as value in the listed line and the generated line I tend to go with it. That is the case with this game, even though there was some early RLM everything else points to Air Force and I am willing to go with it.

Official Play:

Air Force -1.5

blackbeSSt · 10-13-10, 01:25 PM

wal, are those picks in the first post for this week? tons of the lines aren't matching up? or were those the lines you were expecting sunday when you posted it?

wal66 · 10-13-10, 01:29 PM

Originally posted by blackbeSSt

wal, are those picks in the first post for this week? tons of the lines aren't matching up?

Yes those are this weeks adjusted lines. Even by my requirements there are 18 games this week that meet my differential. Generally after the 5th or 6th week there are more games that qualify do to sorting out their ratings and having more to factor in with games played and all.

Personally even though I have way more options due to my funk I am in I am cutting back on the number of games I am playing. Some people think differently but I have to do what I trust is best for me and my money.

jackpot269 · 10-13-10, 01:33 PM

Thanks for all your work wal this is 1st time i have had a chance to check in this year Ive been very busy GL pal this week and rest of year !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

wal66 · 10-13-10, 01:40 PM

jackpot, you've missed a few laughs if you haven't been checking in reguarly, my win percentage this year is a complete JOKE.

I am trying to get re-focused and apply more time. I have been slacking and it has shown in my record and bankroll.

I love the game and I care about the peeps that have been here the past couple of seasons though and I need to be respectful of them and put in the best effort.

wal66 · 10-13-10, 03:50 PM

Kent @ Toledo

For whatever reason I tend to play more of these smaller school type games than others. I would like to think that I select games that may not get as much attention publicly which in turn has a better chance of value from the books. Is this true, I really don’t know but in my mind it is and that’s what I go with.

Toledo probably shocked a few with an impressive win against Purdue earlier this season. I’m not sure how impressive it actually was but it did catch my attention and enabled me to play on them the following week as they laid an egg at home against Wyoming. They have played Arizona and Boise State as well this season and have a dramatic advantage in terms of strength of schedule compared to Kent. Here again this is a personal preference type thing and some may not put as much stock in that as others.

As far as key injuries are concerned Kent will be without RB Eugene Jarvis due to a groin injury. Toledo’s QB Austin Dantin is listed as questionable due to a concussion but most likely will get to play. I tried to factor this game in the event that Austin can’t play and Terrence Owens gets the start and I still would give a slight edge to Toledo.

I hope I am not under-valuing Kent too much here. I have in previous years picked my spots with them and had success. This time I am playing against them though and we’ll have to see if that read is as good.

Technically this game doesn’t meet my usual minimum differential to constitute a play but when factoring in the strength of opponents, being at home and several other reasons plus that little instinct that sometimes kicks in, it’s enough to make them one of my plays this week.

Official Play:

Toledo -3

HoldEmHook!! · 10-13-10, 09:48 PM

Wal, I see....um....smell the money in the air......I am loving a few games and they are favorable to your program as well, thanks for your posting I use your info to adjust and add to my capping.

Kan st -1.5
Utep +2.5
Idaho -1.5
Cal +2.5
are some of the games I like ALOT. as always...Best of Luck my friend. Hit'em straight and always draw to the inside sraight.

wal66 · 10-13-10, 10:02 PM

Holdem, I'm still in the process but I also like Idaho and UTEp right now. Not sure if they make the final cut but they look appealing.

Tonights game is a sure sign I have lost faith in my program lately. If this had been last year and the program showed a line difference like this UCF game it would have made the list without question. Being that I've been in a funk I looked for reasons to avoid the game rather than reasons to support my program.

wal66 · 10-15-10, 10:50 AM

Vanderbilt @ Georgia

Last week at 1-4 Georgia was an 11.5 point favorite against Tennessee after coming off a loss to Colorado. Many thought the line didn’t make sense because even though the Vol’s are still struggling they certainly could stay in the game against a very down Georgia team. That didn’t happen and Georgia dominated the Vol’s throughout.

This week the Bulldogs are again a double digit favorite at home against another SEC team in a 2-3 Vanderbilt. The Commodore’s are one of those teams I like to pick my spots with. They are never very good but they are often better than the credit they are given by way of the lines. I think this week is just one of those spots. Vandy is by no means a great team and really aren’t even that good of a team but they do like to control the clock and they generally play pretty good defense.

I fully expect Georgia to win this game and I also look for AJ Green to have a fairly decent day but I can also see Vanderbilt having some success running the ball and sprinkling in enough passes that the Dawg’s can’t just pin their ears back and load the box all day. I think Vandy keeps this game within 10 points and since Georgia only rates as a 4.5 point favorite according to the program that allows me a comfortable margin of value here.

Official Play:

Vanderbilt +14 (-110)

wal66 · 10-15-10, 11:01 AM

Official Card:

SMU/Navy over 52.5
Air Force -1.5
Toledo -3.5
Vanderbilt +14

dchecks · 10-15-10, 11:09 AM

Originally posted by wal66

Official Card:

SMU/Navy over 52.5
Air Force -1.5
Toledo -3.5
Vanderbilt +14

Good Luck Wal!!! Love the Air Force play..

rhymenocerous · 10-15-10, 11:14 AM

The reason for the line movement on SDSU is that RAS released it as one of his plays. The line went from +4 to a pick almost immediately. I grabbed AFU wjen it was a pick and love the play. Thank you RAS!

sn00p · 10-16-10, 12:12 PM

your system isn't what it is last year, please change what ever you made changes to from last year and have it like last year you're giving teams with weak schedules to many points. and same with teams with harder schedules

sn00p · 10-16-10, 12:40 PM

vanderbilt sucks

wal66 · 10-17-10, 07:02 AM

For 2 seasons I wore my 60%+ badge proudly for college football. This year it appears I will yet again reach 60%+ only it will be losers. I would simply call it quits but it appears that I have taken on a different role now, that of fade material.

Wrecktangle · 10-17-10, 08:18 AM

Wal66, why don't you try out our SBR weekly College handicapping contest? Fun and cheap: 20 SBR points.

wal66 · 10-17-10, 10:21 AM

Originally posted by Wrecktangle

Wal66, why don't you try out our SBR weekly College handicapping contest? Fun and cheap: 20 SBR points.

Got a link Wreckage? I'll forget to go look it up but I am willing to donate to your cause.