Ncaa football - week 6 - apom's big card

apom12 · 10-09-10, 01:33 PM

Mid Day Games

MID-DAY GAMES

KENT ST -17 (1u)
ALA -7 (1u)
TCU -34 (1u)
CAL -8 (3u)
PITT +7 (1u)
FLA INT -10 (1u)
LA TECH -1 (1u)
OREGON -35 (3u)

UCLA @ CAL – Taking CAL -8 – UCLA beat Texas… However they did it by running for over 260 yards… They threw the ball 9 times all game. Passing isn’t their game, and California has had a pretty solid run defense so far this year – this will be a test. On the other hand, Cal has been dominant at home putting up 50+ points in both games – and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games at home. If they can stop the run this will be an easy win.
Predicting: UCLA 21 / CAL 35

OREGON @ WASH ST – Taking ORE -35 – Well there are several reasons why I am loving this play. First and foremost, Oregon is such a better team on all sides of the ball – Great offense vs terrible defense, and solid defense against a subpar Wash St offense. The last 3 meetings Oregon has won by 40+ points, and Wash St is 4-9 in their last 13 home games (0-4 in their last 4). Oregon needs a big win and they will get it.
Predicting: Oregon 56 / Wash St 14

apom12 · 10-09-10, 01:55 PM

Late Games

LATE GAMES

UTAH -6 (2u)
SOUTHERN MISS -8 (2u)
HOUSTON +5 (2u)
STANFORD -10 (1u)
HAWAII +11 (1u)
NEVADA -38.5 (1u)

Utah @ Iowa St – Taking Utah -6 – For me this is an easy one. Utah has scored 44 PPG and given up 12 PPG – they’re the 10th best team in the nation and are 22-0 in their last 22 games as a favorite. Iowa St is an average team, and beating them by a touchdown shouldn’t be a problem. Their last two games have been pushovers (SJ St and New Mexico) and have allowed them to get their offense in check. They have a SOLID defense and should be able to limit Iowa St’s ground game.
Predicting: Utah 34 / Iowa St 21

E. Carolina @ So Miss – Taking So. Miss -8 – Quite frankly E. Carolina’s defense scares me. They have been horrible especially on the road, and their ATS record on the road is just as bad (4-11 in last 15). While their offense is good, So Miss has a solid defense and will test them all game. E. Carolina’s last two games have been against NC and VT – both tough opponents, but Southern Miss is rolling right now after 4 straight wins. I don’t see E. Carolina getting back on track in this game.
Predicting: E. Car 24 / Southern Miss 42

apom12 · 10-10-10, 01:38 AM

Originally posted by apom12

Hey all - just wanted to share my picks / leans with you for this week. I don't post here often - way too much drama than I want to deal with - however I would like to post a thread each week that is open to discussions and opinion on my leans. I will post in sections. I'll break it down by the time frame of the games:

Early Games
MINN +22 (1u) - WIN
OHIO STATE -21 (3u) - WIN
NC STATE -9 (1u) - WIN
TEMPLE +3 (2u) - LOSS
FLORIDA -6 (1u) - LOSS
AIR FORCE -25 (1u) - LOSS
TEASER (5.5PT) OHIO ST -16.5 & FLA -0.5 +100 (2u) - LOSS

IND @ OHIO ST - The only thing Indiana has going for them is their passing offense. Impressive in the air, however Ohio State's defense will test them all day. Their ground game isn't anything to brag about and I don't see Ohio St giving up any ground game. On the other side, Ohio State will control the ball most of the game - going up against a terrible rush defense, they will be able to mix it up enough for Pryor to throw downfield when needed and score big points. Also - Ohio State is 5-0 in their last 5 meetings ATS...
Predicting: IND 21 OHIO ST 49 Final. And yes, I am on the Over.

TEMPLE @ NO. ILL - I am putting an extra unit on this only because I chasing atrend.. Yup... Chasing a trend... Temple has been awesome ATS on the road (7-1 in the last 8, and 10-4 as an underdog) while Northern Illinois has been less than stellar (0-8 ATS against teams above .500, and 4-7 at Home). It's going to be a close game, I bought a half point to make it Temple +3.5 (-120).
I see this one ending up as a 24-21 game either side

More to come later on...

Note: I added the Teaser today hence the reason the "extra" point on Ohio St. I got -21 on Wednesday on the game by itself.. It is now -22 on 5Dimes

EARLY GAMES = 3-4 (-1.4 UNITS)

Originally posted by apom12;6***163

MID-DAY GAMES

KENT ST -17 (1u) - LOSS
ALA -7 (1u) - LOSS
TCU -34 (1u) - WIN
CAL -8 (3u) - WIN
PITT +7 (1u) - WIN
FLA INT -10 (1u) - LOSS
LA TECH -1 (1u) - WIN
OREGON -35 (3u) - LOSS

UCLA @ CAL – Taking CAL -8 – UCLA beat Texas… However they did it by running for over 260 yards… They threw the ball 9 times all game. Passing isn’t their game, and California has had a pretty solid run defense so far this year – this will be a test. On the other hand, Cal has been dominant at home putting up 50+ points in both games – and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games at home. If they can stop the run this will be an easy win.
Predicting: UCLA 21 / CAL 35

OREGON @ WASH ST – Taking ORE -35 – Well there are several reasons why I am loving this play. First and foremost, Oregon is such a better team on all sides of the ball – Great offense vs terrible defense, and solid defense against a subpar Wash St offense. The last 3 meetings Oregon has won by 40+ points, and Wash St is 4-9 in their last 13 home games (0-4 in their last 4). Oregon needs a big win and they will get it.
Predicting: Oregon 56 / Wash St 14

MID GAMES = 4-4 (-0.6u)

Originally posted by apom12;6***461

LATE GAMES

UTAH -6 (2u) - WIN
SOUTHERN MISS -8 (2u) - LOSS
HOUSTON +5 (2u) - LOSS
STANFORD -10 (1u) - LOSS
HAWAII +11 (1u) - WIN
NEVADA -38.5 (1u) - LOSS

Utah @ Iowa St – Taking Utah -6 – For me this is an easy one. Utah has scored 44 PPG and given up 12 PPG – they’re the 10th best team in the nation and are 22-0 in their last 22 games as a favorite. Iowa St is an average team, and beating them by a touchdown shouldn’t be a problem. Their last two games have been pushovers (SJ St and New Mexico) and have allowed them to get their offense in check. They have a SOLID defense and should be able to limit Iowa St’s ground game.
Predicting: Utah 34 / Iowa St 21

E. Carolina @ So Miss – Taking So. Miss -8 – Quite frankly E. Carolina’s defense scares me. They have been horrible especially on the road, and their ATS record on the road is just as bad (4-11 in last 15). While their offense is good, So Miss has a solid defense and will test them all game. E. Carolina’s last two games have been against NC and VT – both tough opponents, but Southern Miss is rolling right now after 4 straight wins. I don’t see E. Carolina getting back on track in this game.
Predicting: E. Car 24 / Southern Miss 42

LATE GAMES = 2-4 (-2.5 units)

OVERALL = 9-12 (-4.5u)