The Value of Buying Points

emat · 10-05-10, 01:28 PM

Originally posted by Consistency

Hey Everyone-

I was just wondering how the books work the prices for buying points? Whenever I do buy them, I love buying them in games that are going to be low scoring (I look at the over/under). My theory is that the value of 10 points in a game where only 30 is projected to be scored is a LOT higher than the value of 10 points in a game where the over/under is sitting at 66.5, you see what I mean?

Is this priced into the costs for these points? Does buying 10 on a projected low scoring game cost more than buying 10 on a shootout?

Thanks for the feedback. I have made a LOT of money lately, but I think it comes as a result of luck and intuition. I'd like to become a more informed bettor.

In my opinion the only must is buying the 3.5 to 3. I will typically buy 7.5 as well, but my guess is that one costs you more times than not. Taking a 3.5 line though is flat out stupid especially in the NFL>

Spartan14745 · 10-05-10, 01:30 PM

C'mon man, pick a new avatar!

Consistency · 10-05-10, 01:49 PM

I feel like I'm talking to myself...

"Hey, I'm a child of divorce...give me a break!" - Patrick Bateman

chrisharvard01 · 10-05-10, 02:25 PM

buying always costs the same regardless.

it is a great tool for NBA and NCAAB, imo. Be advised, you cant buy in vegas with the exception to 1 point. If you try to buy they look at you like you are a fool and then offer you only one point. They told me "no one can afford to buy points".

Consistency · 10-05-10, 02:41 PM

So if buying 10 points costs the same regardless, then the intrinsic value goes WAY up in a defensive game. Look at it from a % standpoint:

In a 30 pt total ovr/und game, buying 10 points represents 33% of the total points scored (10/30 x 100%)

In a 60 pt total ovr/und game, buying 10 points represents 16.67% of the total points scored (10/60 x 100%)

So, buying points in a lower-scoring game generates a great deal more value for you (operating under the assumption that the cost of said points is the same in either game, the 30pt game and the 60pt game).

Doesn't this seem pretty rudimentary?

Indecent · 10-05-10, 02:44 PM

Your thinking is correct.

Originally posted by Consistency

So, buying points in a lower-scoring game generates a great deal more value for you (operating under the assumption that the cost of said points is the same in either game, the 30pt game and the 60pt game).

Doesn't this seem pretty rudimentary?

Yes

Consistency · 10-05-10, 02:53 PM

Okay, well who has a good site to backtest scores. I want to see what happens if we buy 10 points for every game that has an ovr/und of lets say 27-33?