http://sunde91.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/
As you can see, I encountered a minor speed bump of late in NCAAF, but I am very confident I will get back on a winning track today.
I like Army in this spot with a lot of angles all lining up almost perfectly. I am betting this play relatively big because of my confidence in it. NFL and other sports have left me more than well off overall, so definitely not chasing or on tilt or anything; I'm just confident and feel I need to play more on it (I probably won't find a play with stronger reasons all season tbh).
1)Temple Coming Off Tough Loss - Temple was leading Penn State in the 3rd Quarter in Happy Valley and ended up losing 22-13. Temple definitely put a lot into this game and were visibly excited on the sidelines when they had the lead, but totally drained and devastated after falling behind and putting up a thrilling 0 points after the 1st Quarter. This looked to be a promising year for the Owls, starting 3-0 (and still may be) with a big win over UConn, but now a potential upset, "biggest win ever" type game, escaped them and now they have to somehow rally themselves to get up for Army on the road; I don't see them coming out strong here.
2)Temple Star RB Doubtful - Bernard Pierce will more than likely not play Saturday after suffering an ankle sprain in the 3rd Quarter against Penn State. If he does not play, it is a catastrophic blow to the Temple Offense and team as a whole. As soon as he was taken out of last Saturday's game, the Owls did absolutely nothing offensively; Pierce scored their only 2 TDs for the game and Temple basically had two big rushing plays that accounted for most of their rushing yardage after he left the game. And even if he does play, he will be severely limited, as Temple still has the MAC title on its mind and won't risk anything against Army on the road.
3)Match-ups: Temple O vs. Army D - Temple depends heavily on the run, though they are just 69th in rushing with 146 ypg. As stated, their RB won't play or will be limited, so that already hurts. On top of that, they will face a 45th Army rushing D that gives up 125 ypg. Army simply needs to stack the box and they should be able to shut-down Temple's Offense completely; because Temple sure shouldn't be able to throw too well with a miserable 106th/139 ypg passing offense. Army is a very respectable 36th/310 ypg in total defense.
4)Match-ups: Army O vs. Temple D - Temple's piss poor 73rd ranked/160 ypg rushing D could struggle mightily defending against Army's 8th ranked/275 ypg rushing attack. Army averages 60 rushes a game (2nd in the country). Last week, Penn State ran the ball 46 times for 216 yards (4.7 ypc). Two weeks ago, UConn ran against them 42 times for 240 yards (5.7 ypc). There's every reason to believe Temple's run D will get completely run down on the road after taking such a beating for what will be 3 weeks in a row.
5)Other Stats - Army could have a big advantage in Turnovers. Army is 3rd in the country in turnover margin at 2.25; Temple is tied for 66th at -.25. Army also leads the nation in Time Of Possession; Temple is a mere 88th. TOP is HUGE at home for a team getting 6 points. Army will be able to dictate pace, manage game/control field position, run the clock, minimize turnovers, and keep it relatively low scoring. Army returns 18 starters overall (with QB). Temple also returns 18 starters (QB too).
6)Public Fade - About 65% of the action is on Temple here. Temple is like the new pet of the public or something ever since they beat UConn pretty good, which is funny, because the perception has basically always been that Temple is like the worst team in FBS, but now they're getting bet even when it should be common knowledge that their staple RB won't be playing. If they win here with Temple, I just may punch myself in the face and then force myself to vomit; that's how sick and disgusted I would feel.
One thing I don't like here is the line movement. Ok, the line is moving with the money, but it's still a big movement of about 2.5 points. I would be much more comforted if this line hadn't moved, to either give a sign that books are confident with Army against the public's Temple or "sharps" are on Army, w/e. At least hopefully I got a good closing number.
GL.
Great start Sunde, hopped on this one.
