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looks like you had a good weekendComment -
Dropping a bomb tonight. Going for the Jugular down the stretch. Huge game for the NFL season, and definitive for me as well. Let's get it.
12/6/10 NFL TOP Play
DONK 5* New England Patriots ML -195Comment -
Just some insight since I don't feeling like doing Financial Management homework:
Okay, a bunch of little intangibles from player/team angles and a pointspread perspective that I like about this game. Vegas set the total at 47.5 to open and the public jumped all over the under and bet it down to 44.5.. The pats are also strong -3.5 point favorites, that's the strongest bet in football right in front of a strong -7.5 line.. Hitting near 80% the last couple of years and has done well in the past. For the Pats to win, and win comfortable, they're gonna have to score some points, and Vegas is betting that they do, while the public is falling for the trap taking under such a high number as the 9-2 Jets have a great defense. The fact that the line is a strong -3.5/4 and not a weak -3 or even -2.5 is awesome for the Pats who are giving more than a field goal to a team they lost to by 2 TDs this year.
The game is in Foxboro. Brady is going for an all-time record 26th straight home win. The Pats lost to the Jets 28-14 and were handled easily in the 2nd half of that game. They lost the turnover battle 3-0 in that game. NO WAY that happens again tonight. Brady and Bellicheat on revenge, at home, against a divisional opponent, possibly deciding the division and home field advantage in the playoffs. Somewhat of a similar ring to the NE-PIT game earlier this year. You saw what happenned there. Pats have also had 10 days to prepare for this one. Sure, the Jets have, too, but look what they did off their bye against Green Bay. Shut. Out. Gonna be freezing and breezy in Foxboro tonight, an environment oh-so-natural for Brady and the Boys. California boy Sanchez has done well so far, but this is the most important regular season game of his young career. I think the Pats pick him off at least once tonight.
The Jets are without their starting safety/returner and with the changes the Pats have made, Revis should not have a huge impact in this one. No Randy Moss to key on. It's gonna take an entire defense. Deion Branch is back, Danny Woodhead is here (and he was cut by the Jets, so he's probably hungry). It takes a scheme, not a player. Brady is so efficient in this offense with the speed and talent around him that is so dangerous and well-coached. Quick passes, check downs, screens, and a few shots over the middle for the Pats tonight will get the job done. I really think they will be able to move the ball on the Jets D. I expect Danny Woodhead to have a great game.
The Pats defense is a liability, but has been playing better. The 10 days of preparation will be a huge help. They have given up big yards, but to guys like Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Brett Favre, Ben Roethlisberger, all of which were defeated, with a ton of those yards coming in catch up. The Pats D will take some risks tonight, get some sacks, and force some mistakes. Even if they do surrender their fair share, I expect Brady and Co. to be able to answer at home.
Jets have played a pretty weak schedule and have had some close games. They can't afford to bank on a miracle win in Foxboro, because those games always go the way of the Pats. I think the Pats can cover the number, and wouldn't be surprised to see a 7-10 point win, but this is a game where teams are just gonna do all they can to simply win. There will be some strategy late, and Bellicheat won't be worrying about getting backdoored, but he'll be doing everything he can to get the win. I like the fact that there is hope for an easy Pats win, something like 31-13, but I see no chance the game plays out that way in favor of the Jets.
Quite simply, it's the Patriots doing their thing tonight, and getting the win. I'm willing to risk over a quarter of my NFL profits this year and bank on that. Big game tonight. BOL, let's get it boys.Comment -
u da manComment -
NCAAF YTD: 34-36-2 -$2,203.50
DONK Plays: 16-16-2 -$1,507.50
NFL YTD: 51-29-6 +$4,131.50
DONK Plays: 37-21-3 +$3,776.50
OVERALL YTD: 85-65-8+$1,928
DONK OVERALL: 53-37-5 +$2,269
(29-12-3 +$4,733 on plays of 3* or larger)
(3-1-1 +$650 on only Top Plays of 5* or higher)Comment -
Coming right back with a big one. No, I'm not just picking a game (and the next one, at that) because I cashed NE big last night, I really do love this. I am a Colts fan and know the team, and may have a slight homer mentality, but I try not to let that affect my betting, and use it to my advantage. I bet against the Colts with the Chargers and Chargers TT last Sunday night and went 2-0. This time, I love the Colts to stomp a hopeless Titans team. Will probably give another write up for this game at a later point in time. (Got a lotta projects/papers and finals week is next week.) Anyways, here we go:
12/9/10 NFL TOP Play
DONK 7* Colts ML -150
I want to win on a FG, and -2.5 is -135, so I'll lay the ML. Do I think Peyton gets it done 60+% of the time in this game? Uh, YES. Let's cash another huge play.Comment -
Here's my insight on the Colts:
Okay. So I see this line open at Colts -2.5 and I think: "WOW! That's gotta be a trap." Looking a little closer, I tried to rationalize what I thought to be such a low line. What could Vegas be thinking here? With the Titans, we have a divisional, home underdog that is hungry for a win. With the Colts, we have a VERY banged up, struggling team in their Super Bowl hangover with a quarterback who is going through the worst stretch of his career as the team struggles to stay at .500. The Colts are far from the team they used to be. The streak of 12 win seasons will end this year, and missing the playoffs is a real possibility. The Titans, however, are absolutely atrocious. Vince young is done for the year, and with Rusty Smith and Kerry Collins, they have not scored an offensive touchdown in 13 quarters. Ew. The Titans have lost 5 straight games and Coach Fisher may not be in Tennessee much longer. I just can’t think of any reason for the Titans to get fired up at all.
In my opinion, the most important matchup in this game is the Titans run game vs. the Colts run D. Chris Johnson and crew versus the 30th ranked run defense that surrenders over 140 per game on the ground. However, Tennessee has not had such a dominant run game recently. The entire Titans team has been held to 75 rush yards or less in 4 of the team’s last 6 games. The reason I believe the Colts will be able to prevent a CJ explosion and if not shut down, at least contain the Titans on the ground is because of the horrific pass game of the Titans. This is also the reason I believe the Titans have been struggling on the ground against all other teams. Lack of Balance. Without a passing threat, teams are able to stack 8 or even 9 in the box to stop the run. I know Randy Moss is here now and should keep the defense honest, blah, blah. No. Stop. I love Randy Moss, I think he may be the most talented WR ever and the best right next to Jerry Rice, but c'mon. You think the dude is amped to be playing in Tennessee on a 5 game losing streak with this joke of an offensive scheme after all his success due to his rebirth in New England? No chance. Since arriving in Tennessee, Moss has 5 catches in 4 games for a whopping 62 yards and 0 touchdowns. Yeah, that'll keep a defense honest... NOT. Kenny Britt is expected to return, but after being completely held out of the Jax game on Sunday, is he really 100% 4 days later? I doubt it. The Colts actually have a solid pass defense, and should be able to get stops even after placing Jerraud Powers, our best CB, on the IR on Tuesday after his arm surgery. Another thing that works to the Colts favor in this matchup is the speed of their defense. Overall, they are a fast team. I'm hoping with the added pressure on the Titans run game the Colts will be able to set the edge and contain CJ. If they are able to stuff some rushes for losses or a small gains throughout the game, they could bring up long passing situations on third down, and with ‘Ol Man Collins back there, the Colts speed rushers, Freeney and Mathis, will be drooling over a chance at a strip sack. They'll get hits on Collins, get their hands in there and maybe redirect a ball right to a Colts defender. I'm not expecting a shutout, and I'm not banking on the Titans streak of quarters without an offensive touchdown to reach 17, but I mean.. It's possible? Haha. Regardless, I think it will take more than 20 for the Titans to win this one, and I can't see them getting much more than that.
On to the Colts and Peyton Manning. Wow. A 3 game slide? Manning throwing 11 interceptions in his last 3 games? Not very Colt-like. Look. I'll put this out there. I honestly, 100% believe that Peyton Manning is the best quarterback to ever pick up a football. He is easily the smartest and most dedicated football player in history. The guy knows football. The guy studies his ass off and works his ass off. The guy is DETERMINED and HATES failure, he can't STAND IT. He’s also unbelievably talented and can place the ball wherever he wants it. Let me tell you this. The man is not happy with what has been going on with his team. Not a little upset, genuinely frustrated. You can tell that this guy lives, eats, breathes and sleeps football, and genuinely cares about his team’s performance every single game. No one is more frustrated, yet hungry and determined in the NFL right now, than Peyton Manning. A 3 game losing streak is unacceptable. A .500 record is unacceptable. Yes, literally half of this team is injured, but that doesn't matter to Peyton. Sure, he loves his teammates and I bet he's great friends with a lot of ‘em. But on the field, it's all just a bunch of X's and O's. Just pawns in Peyton's chess game. Earlier in the year when the injuries started to pile up, the Colts ripped Blair White off the practice squad right before a game, and Peyton threw a TD pass to White in his first NFL game. Dallas Clark is absolutely unbelievable, but you almost can't tell the difference when Peyton hooks up with Jacob Tamme over the middle for a first down. This is a guy that took Brandon Stokley, who had about 1,100 yards and 10 TDs in his 5 year career, and turned him into a 1,000+ yard, 10 TD receiver in 2004. Since Stokley left the Colts he has less than 2,000 yards and 11 TDs in 4 years. My point is that whatever is in Peyton's arsenal, he is going to use. And he’s going to use it successfully, and he is going to win with it. Even so, he still has Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon, two very talented guys. On top of the fact that we have Peyton Manning and crew, the Titans secondary is nothing to rave about. They have given up 300 yards of passing in half of their games, including 358 to Washington, and 316 to Miami. Pathetic. Needless to say, they lost most of those games, so their opponents didn't even have to pass much late in the game. While the Colts run game is simply pathetic, I wouldn't be surprised to see it overachieve this week. I watched some of the Titans-Jaguars game on Sunday (Titans were my only loss in a 4-1 afternoon) and let me tell you. On the majority of his runs, Maurice Jones-Drew was not being touched by a single Titan defender until he was 3-5 yards deep in the defensive backfield. It was PATHETIC. I was completely wrong about the Titans in that game, and it seems almost as if they have given up as a team. There was a clear lack of effort, and pathetic tackling. If the Colts show any signs of a run game, look out. The Titans will be very hard-pressed to get stops against the Colts offense that, despite a lack of run game, is averaging just less than 27 PPG and 400 YPG. It will be cold and the game is in Tennessee, so I'm not expecting an offensive explosion, and we could see somewhat of a lower-scoring game, but I think the Colts will be able to put drives together and score on the Titans, and do so much more easily than the Titans will be able to. I feel that the Colts can still win this game even if they lose the turnover battle, but I can't see Manning throwing 3 picks this game. No way. To be honest, I will be surprised if he throws more than 1, and would not be surprised to see a "0" in the "INT" stat column.
Basically, I don’t think the Titans are that hungry. It’s gotta be hard to get motivated, and the team play has fallen off a cliff in the last 5 games. I KNOW Peyton and the Colts are starving, and Peyton will do all he can to help his team run the table and make the playoffs. This year, the bad teams in the NFL are terrible, and “square plays” have been cashing the ticket. Sometimes, if it looks that easy, it is! Square plays win, too. Otherwise, why would squares bet? They don’t win all the time, or even most of the time, but they’ve gotta win sometimes. This one will be a winner. This is a must win game for the Colts. With other teams, I wouldn’t be so confident, but I know how good Peyton Manning is and I know that he is a WINNER who will WIN this game on Thursday.
Last year, the line when the Colts went into Tennessee was Colts -3 and that resulted in a 31-9 Colts victory. I think what we are seeing this year is an overreaction to the injuries plaguing the Colts, along with Peyton Manning's struggles. I really think that is why we are getting value. It's that simple. That is why I am pounding this one. Vegas has already moved the line to a strong -3, and I could easily see this going to -3.5, and maybe -4 or higher by kickoff. As I explained, Manning works with what he's got, and he is a WINNER. It's what he does. He just finds a way, and he will on Thursday. Whether it is a 31-9 repeat of last year, or a thrilling 23-21 late, 4th quarter win, Manning will put his team in a position to win the game, and I am banking that on Thursday, the Colts seize the opportunity.
Rollin' with Peyton and Co. to bring home the NEW biggest bet of the NFL season on Thursday. GO COLTS!Comment -
Game Day.
I actually have an order in with some poker buddies to get Colts ML vig-free against other bettors for another 3*, potentially making this a 10* play for me if it gets booked. Basically, if I was a tout and had a "Game of the Year", this would be it. LET'S GO COLTS!Comment -
Wow Donk - that's a bold play. I love the Colts in theory, and hope you're right.
Just 94% of the bets coming in on Indy with no line movement scares me some.
Good luck!Comment -
I have 9* on it now, with the 10th pending. GL.Comment -
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM... great call on the ML instead of the spread like all the other hosersComment -
NCAAF YTD: 34-36-2 -$2,203.50
DONK Plays: 16-16-2 -$1,507.50
NFL YTD: 52-29-6 +$5,131.50
DONK Plays: 38-21-3 +$4,776.50
OVERALL YTD: 86-65-8+$2,928
DONK OVERALL: 54-37-5 +$3,269
(30-12-3 +$5,733 on plays of 3* or larger)
(4-1-1 +$1,650 on only Top Plays of 5* or higher)
(1-0 +$1,000 on only 10* play of the year)Comment -
Well done DONK!Comment -
And on we rollllllllll.....
12/12/10 NFL TOP Play
DONK 5* Eagles -3 (-135)Comment -
Working out a Bears/Chargers teaser. Currently have 2.2 units on a 7 point, ties win teaser with Bears +10 and Chargers -3 (Aka +10.5 and -2.5). Line instantly moved after I put the first portion in, so still working out the kinks. I plan on making this at least 3* total.Comment -
12/12/10 NFL Plays
DONK 3.5* 7 Pt, TW Teaser: Bears +10, Chargers -3 (-128)
DONK 2* Bills TT Under 20Comment -
I know I never post bets from other sports and most people around here never bet boxing but if you have been following my bigger plays you know they're money and I have a pretty big bet going tonight. I will not count it in my football record- Win or lose, just giving a heads up. I had a big bet on over 9.5 rounds for Pacman-Margarito with small on Marg for the upset, (Fight went to a full 12 round decision, Pacquiao won) and I made about 5* on that fight.. Also had Cain Velasquez in his upset of Brock Lesnar with that first round KO, which was my biggest MMA bet and netted around 6*.
My bet tonight is Amir Khan to win. I have bet it from -310 all the way up to -376. I have over 18* risked to win over 5*. GL.
The amount I'm risking is bigger than any football bet I've made this year, or in any sport for that matter, so I'm just giving a heads up to anyone interested. I have a buddy who I consider to be a legit MMA/Boxing sharp and if I told you how much he has on Khan, no one would begin to believe me. It's a hell of a lot more than me. Way more. Tail if you want but only what you can afford and if you would be able to accept a loss. BOL.Comment -
Khan gets it done. Very good fight, props to both fighters, but in the end, it's just another big play WINNER.
Comment -
12/12/10 NFL Play
DONK 3.5* Saints -9 (-105)
DONK 3.5* Bengals +9.5 (-117)Comment -
Full card Recap
12/12/10 NFL Plays
DONK 5* Eagles -3 (-135)
DONK 3.5* 7 Pt, TW Teaser: Bears +10, Chargers -3 (-128)
DONK 3.5* Saints -9 (-105)
DONK 3.5* Bengals +9.5 (-117)
DONK 2* Bills TT Under 20
1* 3 team, 9 Pt TW Teaser: Bengals +18.5, Saints -1, Chargers -1 (-104)Comment -
Adding:
12/12/10 NFL Play
1* 3 Team, 9 Pt TW Teaser: Falcons pk, Saints -1, Chargers -2 (-104)Comment -
Like it. Your 3* and higher record is awesome, nicely done and good luck.Comment -
Adding:
12/12/10 NFL Play
DONK 2* Eagles TT Over 27
Finally got the line I wanted. I think they drop 30+.Comment -
4-2 today heading into the Sunday night game. Adding 0.5* to the Eagles TT o27.Comment -
5-2-1 Sunday and I am very unsatisfied. 2 pathetic pick 6's from Palmer screws a phenomenal defensive showing by the Bungles. Shoulda had that one. Then Kitna turning into Vick on 4th and 8 for the game late in the 4th to get the push and rip 5* out of my hands left me wanting to vomit. Sigh. If some of my other games won luckily it'd balance out but they were all blowouts. Maybe I'm just spoiled.Comment -
NCAAF YTD: 34-36-2 -$2,203.50
DONK Plays: 16-16-2 -$1,507.50
NFL YTD: 57-31-7 +$5,332.50
DONK Plays: 41-23-4 +$4,777.50
OVERALL YTD: 91-67-9+$3,129
DONK OVERALL: 57-39-6 +$3,270
(31-14-4 +$5,733 on plays of 3* or larger)
(4-1-2 +$1,650 on only Top Plays of 5* or higher)
(1-0 +$1,000 on only 10* play of the year)Comment -
12/13/10 NFL Play
DONK 2.5* Giants -3 (-155)
Something new for me. Didn't wana lay -220 ML or 5 points even though I think they're not bad bets, but tryin' a heavy -3. Also Like Ravens ML and TT o24 or 23, wasn't sure what I wanted to do, and don't wana go overboard on a 2 game Monday night card, so this is it for me. Hicks and Smith are both playing. Favre is out and while I actually think Jackson gives that offense a better chance to put up points, I think we will see some turnover problems from him tonight against this G-men D. GL.Comment
