Wal's College Football Week #4

**sn00p** · 09-19-10, 02:43 PM

why does it have USC always by a wide margin that minnesota game vs usc was a close game they didn't cover the spread let alone 25 what it was set at

**sn00p** · 09-19-10, 02:44 PM

Boise st. was right on

**wal66** · 09-19-10, 03:06 PM

Snoop, due to USC's ranking in the poles and with Sargin's it will remain to have them being given more credit than deserved. I would never take USC and lay any substantial amount of points this season. I list all the games though even the ones I will not go near.

I have a variable which adjust the Sargin ratings but it's not designed to adjust enough to bring the USC lines within reason.

**bypp** · 09-19-10, 07:09 PM

lookin forward to your picks wal. i got my ass handed to me this past weekend

**wal66** · 09-19-10, 07:13 PM

Snoop, I plugged a number in wrong with USC, my line should have bee -21 but even at that they haven't earned enough respect to be laying 3 touchdowns.

**wal66** · 09-19-10, 07:15 PM

Originally posted by bypp

lookin forward to your picks wal. i got my ass handed to me this past weekend

I see some early plays I will be on. Some of them look too easy so maybe I am falling for something but I have lived by the program for 2 seasons so I'm not gonna abandon ship after one bad weekend. Fingers are crossed.

**wal66** · 09-19-10, 07:27 PM

Some games are still not available at my book but two were.

Stanford -3.5
Southern Miss -6

Will update full card when games are available.

**scarecrow717** · 09-19-10, 11:16 PM

wal,

my teaser cashed last week thanks to you and your epic program. i'm thinking about this for my weekly 7.5 point teaser:

NC state +16.5
Stanford +4
UL Lafeyette +10
Maryland -3

+200 payout or something

thoughts? cant wait to see your plays as always

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 09-20-10, 02:08 AM

Well, seeing as how I was raped by my early bird wagers on Cal & Iowa, I will not go off on games that I'm zeroing in on already, but I do love Stanford at anything below (-4) going into South Bend.

Though, (-14) is a bit much here on the road (I know this is your system, of course, and you are not saying this is what the line should be seen as). I had it capped at (-2), but the caveat here is that there are a select few teams that I will almost invariably back at any spread within a touchdown handicap in either direction. The Cardinal happen to be one of them with one of, if not, the most efficient offenses in the country, along with perhaps the best quarterback in the nation.

I'll probably bite on 'Bama if it stays at, or below '7' as well.

**bigcat1** · 09-20-10, 06:11 AM

as usual did a good job, last week, kinda of questioning the florida -10.5, really florida will pound the cats, i am the biggest homer in the world but i always make money with the cats v/s florida, i believe the line is -14.5 this will be my biggest wager of the year, taking florida -14.5, i actually look for the number to rise......miami, fl v/s pitt will be interesting game, don't know if i have enought guts to play it, Are you playing it, By the way really enjoy your thread, as you know been following for a few years now...

**wal66** · 09-20-10, 06:57 AM

Originally posted by scarecrow717

wal,

my teaser cashed last week thanks to you and your epic program. i'm thinking about this for my weekly 7.5 point teaser:

NC state +16.5
Stanford +4
UL Lafeyette +10
Maryland -3

+200 payout or something

thoughts? cant wait to see your plays as always

I am happy you managed to find a winner out of the program lines. I appreciate the points but seriously I don't know what I will do with them other than give them away.

NC State, Stanford and UL Lafayette will most likely be on my card and 2 of the 3 would have been there already if they were available at my book.

Maryland worries me. I over-valued them after the Navy game last week against West Virginia. They are pretty solid (not great) against the run but have real issues in pas coverage. I wish you all the best but I think Maryland might be the wink link there. If you are happy with them then go for it.

**wal66** · 09-20-10, 06:59 AM

Originally posted by Joe_Shabadoo

Well, seeing as how I was raped by my early bird wagers on Cal & Iowa, I will not go off on games that I'm zeroing in on already, but I do love Stanford at anything below (-4) going into South Bend.

Though, (-14) is a bit much here on the road (I know this is your system, of course, and you are not saying this is what the line should be seen as). I had it capped at (-2), but the caveat here is that there are a select few teams that I will almost invariably back at any spread within a touchdown handicap in either direction. The Cardinal happen to be one of them with one of, if not, the most efficient offenses in the country, along with perhaps the best quarterback in the nation.

I'll probably bite on 'Bama if it stays at, or below '7' as well.

Last week myself and plenty others saw the ECU line open and were like "Hell's yeah" and that didn't go so well. This week most everyone will see this Stanford opening line and it will be the same "Hell's yeah" and we just hope it goes better.

One thing for sure though, this line should only increase.

**wal66** · 09-20-10, 07:06 AM

Originally posted by bigcat1

as usual did a good job, last week, kinda of questioning the florida -10.5, really florida will pound the cats, i am the biggest homer in the world but i always make money with the cats v/s florida, i believe the line is -14.5 this will be my biggest wager of the year, taking florida -14.5, i actually look for the number to rise......miami, fl v/s pitt will be interesting game, don't know if i have enought guts to play it, Are you playing it, By the way really enjoy your thread, as you know been following for a few years now...

Cat, hows it going my friend?

I'm not trying to change your mind so don't read it as such but even though I'm not playing the game I like Kentucky to at least cover here.

It could be just enthusiasm of playing for a new coach, it could be just the early schedule but Kentucky looks to be playing better right now. Certainly Florida has the ability to go off on the Wildcats but they haven't yet shown it. Mistakes can only continue for so long until they eventually catch up with you. There are mistakes everywhere, from performances on the field to plays being called on the sidelines.

Personally if you are taking Florida I hope they play their best game this season thus far cause they will have too.

Best to you and your wife Cat's.

**bigcat1** · 09-20-10, 07:31 AM

mr. wall, you are correct about the cats schedule, it has been very weak, i always take your advice very seriously...and think about the wager, my wife is great finally graduated, now getting her masters in nursing...cost a fortune, we need to win me some money lol

**bigcat1** · 09-20-10, 07:34 AM

by the way she finished 16th at the arnold classic, in columbus ohio, there was about 40 girls in her class,

**The DiB** · 09-20-10, 09:45 AM

Originally posted by bigcat1

as usual did a good job, last week, kinda of questioning the florida -10.5, really florida will pound the cats, i am the biggest homer in the world but i always make money with the cats v/s florida, i believe the line is -14.5 this will be my biggest wager of the year, taking florida -14.5, i actually look for the number to rise......miami, fl v/s pitt will be interesting game, don't know if i have enought guts to play it, Are you playing it, By the way really enjoy your thread, as you know been following for a few years now...

One thing to keep in mind about the UK/UF game is the timing. Florida just had a brutal matchup at Tennessee, while UK basically had a bye last weekend. Florida also has their game of the year @ Bama next week. Can't help to think that Florida may not be 100% into this game. I like UK + the points here. GL to you either way.

**wal66** · 09-20-10, 01:10 PM

Toledo is getting 13 on the road at Purdue. My program suggests Purdue should win this game but shouldn’t be favored by more than 5.5 points. This gives me 7.5 points of value and I will take my chances.

NC State offensively looks pretty good and while it is a young defense it is a physical one. They will have their hands full trying to contain the running of Georgia Tech and while this is a risky play I have plenty of value according to my program as it say NC State should be a 1 point favorite. If this were a home game I would run the risk with the moneyline but since it’s on the road I will accept any and all points available.

Stanford is a 3.5 point favorite at Notre Dame. History tells us 2 things here, you don’t bet on Stanford on the road and especially away from the west coast and you don’t bet on Stanford to beat Notre Dame. I’m bucking conventional wisdom and going with what I have seen so far as the better team here. My program says Stanford should be favored by 14 so I’m laying the 3.5 early cause this line will sure increase.

Idaho -7.5 at Colorado St. To be completely honest this is strictly a program play. I did see a little of Colorado St play but haven’t even see highlights of Idaho. Program says I have 4 points worth of value and while I should pass cutting it so close to what qualifies when I have no knowledge of the teams in play, I’m gonna just go with it.

Southern Miss is laying 5.5 on the road to LA Tech. Here again I have seen Southern Miss play and they are GOOD but I haven’t seen any footage of LA Tech. All I know is Southern Miss is fast and physical and if LA Tech isn’t this game could get ugly in a hurry.

LA Lafayette +1.5 at home against Mid Tenn St. Strictly trusting my program here. According to the program LA Lafayette should be favored by 6 so that’s good enough for me. This will make HoosierCatDaddy squirm as I have just jinxed his beloved team.

South Carolina +2.5 at Auburn. WOW! This game could be one huge epic battle at least I hope it is. South Carolina is my pick to win the SEC East as I wrote about before the season started so if I am a little biased here you’ll understand. I really felt they had a good team this year and that the timing was right for Garcia and Spurrier to be on the same page and the offense would click. I expected also that the defense would still be a solid unit even after losing some key players to the draft. On the flip, many expected Auburn to be the main competition to Alabama’s chance at winning the West and so far it all looks likely. Cam Newton is a serious dual threat for Auburn and any team playing them has to keep a dedicated spy on him. Even when this is done though there is no guarantee he still won’t burn them. This game has everything needed to make it a Game of the Week, I just hope it’s a winning game for me and those that agree.

Plays:

Toledo +13
NC State +8.5
Stanford -3.5
Idaho -7.5
Southern Miss -5.5
UL Lafayette +1.5
South Carolina +2.5

All to win 1 unit.

**THE PROFIT** · 09-20-10, 01:19 PM

wal, I use Sag power alot too, & they said Temple should have been fav by about 7 last week & they were catching 6, & we saw what happened, they rolled. It has been correct about 6 out of 8 times I think. I like to find a good dog who should be faved & I like to find a 8-10 point difference. This week UL Lafayette looks good, as they should be a 7pt fav & getting 2, maybe 2.5. But the best on the board as far a s a dog is Fresno getting 2 or 3 vs Mississippi when they should be a 10 pt fav even in Oxford.

A fav that looks great is FAU-7 over N.Texas. N. Texas is beat all to hell, QB,WR,C are now out & FAU just got news they will be starting construction this month on their new $45 mil stadium. And the fact that they should be a 20 point fav!!!

**wal66** · 09-20-10, 02:03 PM

Profit, Sargins is my base and then I do a little extra to try and sweetin' the pot a little and yes FL Atlantic and Fresno St were both on my initial card. I saw I had too many plays for me personally and pulled some off. I'm taking baby steps for another week with the program plays. Actually to be honest either of those teams would probably be a better spot than I have with NC State. I sometimes have a weakness for teams I have won with.

**Flight** · 09-21-10, 12:20 AM

Wal -

I love Stanford -3.5 this week. Wish I would've bet 2 units at the opener.

There are two plays I just don't know where you are coming from.

NC State +8.5 --- I don't know where you get -1.... Sagarin is -6, a quick yardage model gives -8.5, -7 feels about right for a GT home game.... can't understand why your program was so far off on this one and yet so accurate on the other market lines.

UL Lafayette +1.5 --- again the Sagarin is about right, as a PK, but the yardage model makes Middle Tenn St a huge favorite. The SOS could be the problem here (w UL-Laf playing Georgia), but I still don't see the value in the pick, as UL Lafayette has looked awful while Midd Tenn has put up good (average) numbers. I suppose I think it would be a no play since UL has only played 2 games and we're not sure what they'll do yet.

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 09-21-10, 12:34 AM

Wal, the over (58) in the Cardinal/Irish game may topped by nearly 20-points. I could see Stanford winning a 41-38-type-of-game.

**HoldEmHook!!** · 09-21-10, 12:38 AM

Wal, honestly how much does the "eye test" and "gut instinct" affect your plays

**madworld** · 09-21-10, 04:51 AM

Wal, I'm thinking about joining you on the Idaho game. Colorado St. sucks this year and will be beaten by UNLV by atleast 2 TD's. Idaho blew up UNLV last week and although Colorado St. game will be on the road, I just don't think Colorado St will keep it close. Good Luck

**wal66** · 09-21-10, 06:38 AM

Holdem, the “eye test” doesn’t affect the lines portion at all. It absolutely plays a huge factor in my final card though.

I use the programmed lines to find where I have value and then the rest is research, teams I have seen play and in some cases instinct but I REALLY REALLY try and use instincts to eliminate games off my card more than confirm plays.

Unless you are a straight model type of guy it’s almost impossible to take bias out of the evaluating process. I try to minimize it but that’s about as far as I can go. Even when looking at statistical data I think you would have people evaluate certain things differently.

I will always have a couple of plays on my posted card that have some “hunch” factor to them because I simply don’t have time to see video on every team but I try to limit the amount. Generally most of my hunch heavy plays might get bet on but not posted.

**wal66** · 09-21-10, 06:43 AM

Fight, I start with a Sargins base but then add to it and formulate a different number. There is a randomness factor that goes into the additional process. In that portion of the program it is possible to add a wrong value which throws the line out of whack. I try to run my numbers several times but I have been known to stare right at a mistake and never see it. It's possible I made an error but I can't for the life of me find it right now.

I did originally make an error on the USC line and found it after posting which should have made USC -21 on my programed lines.

**bypp** · 09-21-10, 06:56 AM

Definitely on you with Stanford and NC State so far. Good luck this weekend.

**Wrecktangle** · 09-21-10, 08:08 AM

Wal, I'm going to try to get selections out early this week. I have the model under control now.

**THE PROFIT** · 09-21-10, 08:16 AM

Originally posted by Flight

Wal -

I love Stanford -3.5 this week. Wish I would've bet 2 units at the opener.

There are two plays I just don't know where you are coming from.

NC State +8.5 --- I don't know where you get -1.... Sagarin is -6, a quick yardage model gives -8.5, -7 feels about right for a GT home game.... can't understand why your program was so far off on this one and yet so accurate on the other market lines.

UL Lafayette +1.5 --- again the Sagarin is about right, as a PK, but the yardage model makes Middle Tenn St a huge favorite. The SOS could be the problem here (w UL-Laf playing Georgia), but I still don't see the value in the pick, as UL Lafayette has looked awful while Midd Tenn has put up good (average) numbers. I suppose I think it would be a no play since UL has only played 2 games and we're not sure what they'll do yet.

I dont know whwre youre getting-6. Sagarin has them ranked the same so all GT should be giving is the 3pt HF.

**cappinthepigs** · 09-21-10, 08:20 AM

Looking Nice Wal!

**wal66** · 09-21-10, 09:42 AM

Originally posted by Wrecktangle

Wal, I'm going to try to get selections out early this week. I have the model under control now.

Looking forward to it, cool.

**daprospecta** · 09-21-10, 10:02 AM

Toledo +13
Stanford -3.5
Idaho -7.5
South Carolina +2.5

I'm already leaning on these already as well.

**MikeZaW** · 09-21-10, 12:27 PM

I'm on Southern Miss. this week too. Good Luck!

**wal66** · 09-23-10, 08:47 AM

Bad things happening.

I locked Southern Miss in early as I thought the line would be around 7 by game day. I was WRONG. Line is getting hammered down. Granted the sites I have available for looking at actions aren't actual number but they have given me a good prespective in the past and I am seeing 72% action on Southern Miss and a line that is down to 3.5. This isn't good.

If you haven't played this yet I would AVOID IT!

**iwantcougars** · 09-23-10, 09:15 AM

bol wal, following you with idaho