NCAAF Week 3 Blowjobs (68% +10.00x)

[GiveMeaBJ]

NCAAF Week 1: 18-8 (+9.40x) (69%)
NCAAF Week 2: 10-5 (+0.60x) (66%)
NCAA 2010 Season: 28-13 (+10.00x) (68%)

Going to start digging into these lines now. Good luck to everyone on whatever they choose.

[GiveMeaBJ]

North Carolina State ML +110 (1x)
The books opened this line at Cincinatti -3 and judging by the early line movement they have booked decent sharp action on NC State bumping this line down to -1.5. These two teams are really hard to get a feel for this early in the season. It's tough to tell which direction these teams are going to go in this year. To me though, I still feel like Cincinatti is being overvalued. They showed their true colors playing @ Fresno and after leaping out to a 14-0 lead lost 28-14. I think Cincy is going to struggle to run the ball in this game, much like they did against Fresno in what was really just a pathetic performance on the ground. If they struggle on the round again it is going to be a rough go-around. This game reminds me a lot of the game last year here Pittsburgh came to NC as one point dogs and NCSt came out with a 38-31 win. I like Russel Wilson and I think this line is providing value as two evenly matched teams are going against each other and the home team from the better conference is getting points.

[rhymenocerous]

Tailing you again this week.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Tailing you again this week.

Good luck.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Games are tough this week. Not finding much I like.

[ACCBlitz]

Games are tough this week. Not finding much I like.

Take a read
http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/669507-one-line-keep-eye.html

Worth at least looking at. I'm in the same boat - not a lot of plays this weekend.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Take a read
http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/669507-one-line-keep-eye.html

Worth at least looking at. I'm in the same boat - not a lot of plays this weekend.

For sure some nice info in there. Keep up the good work and good luck on your plays.

[blowseq]

so far so good, BOL

[rhymenocerous]

Games are tough this week. Not finding much I like.

Don't force it. Just do what you've been doing.

Thanks for the money this past weekend.

[GiveMeaBJ]

so far so good, BOL

Don't force it. Just do what you've been doing.

Thanks for the money this past weekend.

Any time! Just waiting on some of these totals.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Arkansas +3 (1x)
Georgia didn't play terrible last week against South Carolina but the loss proved to me quite a bit about them. In years past they would have made that comeback and broken the hearts of SC fans. It just shows that they are on a bit of a decline. Don't get me wrong, they will still be tough this year but teams like Arkansas and South Carolina who have been seemingly unable to beat Georgia in the past, may be able to finally grab a win. SC did it last week and I think Arkansas gets a big road win here. Don't sleep on the Razorbacks this year. With Mallet behind center and the way this team is capable of playing they should be right with Alabama and LSU as an SEC powerhouse this year. Let's not forget Mallet lit this Georgia defense up last year. He completed 21 passes for 408 yards, 5 touchdowns, and no picks. They put up 41 points on them in that effort, one problem though. Georgia stung this defense for 52 points. I think this Arkansas offense should be able to move the ball against this defense, maybe not to the tune of 41 points but I don't think they will struggle to score. The question is can Georgias offense keep up? I don't think so personally. This offense looked lost last week against South Carolina, 3/11 on 3rd downs just won't cut it. I think they miss Joe Cox quite a bit, Murray is a good quarterback but in my opinion he is going to need some more experience before he starts making big plays and winning big games. I also think AJ Green is a bigger loss then anticipated. Gone is the guy they can rely on to make a play when needed and gone is the guy who burnt Arkansas for 7 catches, 137 yards, and two touchdowns last year. I think Georgias offense will show its true colors in this game and will allow Arkansas to build a lead.

[GiveMeaBJ]

North Carolina -1.5 (1x)
In the loss to LSU we found out a ton about UNC. Coming into the year with high expectations, going into the game with a decimated defense, and falling behind a great team early they never gave up in that game and had two cracks at the endzone to win the game. Even the 2nd team defense showed great team speed. With two weeks to prepare for this game and the status of the suspended players still uncertain these guys will be ready again. That is the thing with stopping this Georgia Tech offense, you need to be extremley fast on the edges of your defense in order to contain this option attack. Over the past six years Georgia Tech is averaging just 17.5 points per game against the Tarheels over six meetings and just 9 points per game when playing @ UNC. I feel like UNC should win this game regardless, if the suspended players end up playing, it's just icing on the cake.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Kansas St/Iowa State u50 (1x)
Was expecting this line to open a few points lower. Really feeling the under in this one. Iowa State is 9-1 in it's last 10 games to the under. Kansas St isn't going to light up scoreboards this year. 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two have gone under. Not expecting Iowa State to move the ball much and as long as Kansas State doesn't have a crazy explosion on offense we will be ok. Don't want to talk about an under anymore, unders are boring. Hopefully it will make some money though.

[Tomato]

Why not make it NCSU +150 as long as we're making up numbers?

[GiveMeaBJ]

Penn State -20.5 (1x)
Since the start of the 2004 season the Nittany Lions have built a reputation of absolutley beating the shit out of the non-BCS opponents they face. In 13 games against these opponents they are outscoring teams by 36 points. Only one team has come within 20 points of Penn State and that was Akron several years ago who lost by 18. Too be fair, if you take out the non-fbs teams you have 10 games where PSU is outscoring opponents by an average of 33 points. This game was scheduled so that after a tough game against Alabama they could go out and gain some confidence beating up on a lesser team. I think that is exactly what happens. Penn State is too big and this running game will wear down Kent State. On the flip side Kent State has been beaten by an average of 37 points in it's last 7 meetings against Big Ten opponents. The closest they came was a 22 point loss to PSU back in 2003. I think PSU rolls.

[GiveMeaBJ]

West Virginia -10 (1x)
We have seen a strangley run-heavy offense from Maryland this year. They have ran the football almost 80% of the time this year. Sure they padded the stats with five touchdown passes against Morgan State but two games into the year, neither quarterback has thrown the ball for over 100 yards combined. That strategy may work against Morgan State and Navy but against a defense like West Virginia I don't think it is going to have good results. Geno Smith was really impressive. He may not be a huge threat to run but he has the best arm WVU has had in years. As long as Bill Stewart doesn't blow this game (always possible) I don't think WVU will have much trouble moving the ball. Noel Devine and Jock Sanders are big plays waiting to happen and without Maryland being able to throw the ball I think we might see some real good WVU field position all day. It's not like Marylands defense is crazy good, they struggled against Navy but were bailed out several times in the red zone. Look for the speedsters of WVU to make big impacts and walk out with a 3 score win.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Washington +3.5 (1x)
Not really much statistics too back up this one. Nebraska is clearly the better team here, but the better team doesn't always win. Washington is such a tough stadium to play in and the crowd is always wild, bring in the #8 team in the country and give this team a chance to prove themselves as contenders and I think this crowd has a chance to be one of the best of the year. Throw in the senior quarterback Jake Locker who seems to get better and better each game and I think Nebraska will have their hands full. While Nebraska was beating up two cupcakes in the opening weeks, Washington was busy playing against a good BYU team on the road where no one wins and hosting a Big East team. They played well in both games in my opinion. Not to mention Nebraska is bringing a freshman QB into this hostile enviornment. It's going to be a very tough game for Nebraska.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Texas -3 (1x)
Some people have mistaken Texas' conservative, run-heavy offense to mean this team isn't going to be anywhere near as good as last year. But, I think it just shows a change in gameplan. They are relying on a very, very good defense and a very good running game to get things done. It may not bring many style points with it but it will bring in a lot of wins. I think they will run the ball well in this game as well and what better to slow down a fast paced offense then a great defense and grinding offense? Texas has won 8 of the last 10 meetings and expect Taylor Potts to make some mistakes against a scary-fast defense. Garret Gilbert hasn't been impressive but his ability to throw down the middle of the field will come in handy when those safeties begin to creep into the box to help with the run. I think Texas will walk out with a 10 point win.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Oregon State -19 (1x)
Love this team. They were really impressive against TCU in Week 1 and with two weeks to get settled for their home opener expect them to be ready to do some damage. Louisville has been bad ever since Brohm left and I don't think the defense is ready to take on the Rodgers brothers. OSU QB Ryan Katz wasn't too efficient but boy does he show some skills. I love his arm and as each practice goes by he will get better and better. He can make throws all over the field. I think this one gets ugly quick.

[sideline36]

I really like NC State and Arkansas, good luck to you sir!

[agharah1]

I don't know how people can be so sure about Arkansas vs. Georgia. Georgia is better than that loss to South Carolina, and Arkansas always has one problem or another. Either their defense doesn't show up or Ryan Mallett has a bad game.

[jarvol]

Georgia is better than that loss to South Carolina

Based on what?

[GiveMeaBJ]

I really like NC State and Arkansas, good luck to you sir!

Thank you and to you as well.

I don't know how people can be so sure about Arkansas vs. Georgia. Georgia is better than that loss to South Carolina, and Arkansas always has one problem or another. Either their defense doesn't show up or Ryan Mallett has a bad game.

I'm defintiley not "so sure" I just feel like this line presents value. Arkansas really has a shot to be special this year. As for them having problems putting it all together in the same game, I said I don't think the Georgia offense will be able to keep up. Good luck.

Based on what?

I agree with him. You could just tell watching the game they aren't that bad. They miss Cox and Green a lot but you could see the defense is still good enough to win games. I think they will be better then they showed in that game.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Minnesota +12 (1x)
My opinion of USC has drastically changed since last week. I was drinking some of the USC punch after the game at Hawaii but after watching them last week against Virginia, I don't know about this team. They looked flat, very little motivation and maybe that front they put on (F the world, we are going to blow you out) held no water. This team looked very undisciplined so far this year and even though I still love this offense, it seems like they are going to struggle. Last year, let's remember they were a very average team. At this point going into a Big Ten stadium and giving 14 points seems like too much. The big money seemed to agree as this line keeps sinking despite public backing USC. I was able to watch Minnesota against MTST and they looked pretty good in that game. Last weeks bad loss doesn't concern me because I think a lot of that had to do with looking ahead to this game right here. I like Adam Weber and I think Minnesota may be able to move the ball enough to stay within these 12 points. Just 4 of USC's last 16 games have resulted in a USC win by 14 points or more and one of those was a 53 point win over San Jose State.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Michigan State -3 (1x)
Just don't see the hype about Notre Dame this year. It's amazing how year in and year out these guys get pre-season hype because everyone saw Rudy. Michigan State should dominate this game on the ground, Notre Dame's run defense looks very soft. They have allowed 195 rushing yards against per game through the first two games. MSU is rushing for 250 per game, no doubt against week opponents but if this team decides to pound the rock all year behind this line they should have good success. I just don't see the playmakers on the Notre Dame side to be able to get those explosive plays to get big leads in games. If they don't hop out to a big lead MSU I think will grind them down and get a win. This match-up has alternated wins and losses over the last 9 meetings. ND won last year, MSU should avenge the loss.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Iowa -1.5 (1x)
I learned my lesson on Iowa last year, this team may be boring but they will win games and beat the shit out of teams. Stanzi is very impressive and if while I like this Arizona team I don't think they match-up well with teams like Iowa. Look what happened when they played a similar style team in Nebraska last year. They got absolutley blasted. This defense is too good to get lit up by Arizona and I don't think Arizona will be able to completley shut down this Iowa offense. Arizona allowed 10/19 Iowa 3rd downs in the meeting last year and Arizona was able to get just 8 first downs all game last year. Arizona also didn't find much success through the air (just 10/26 for 105 yards). I think Iowa sets the tone for another good year with a win.

[ACCBlitz]

Man that Iowa game is tempting, but a no play for me.

[GiveMeaBJ]

seems like everyone likes ark, i just cant drink that kool-aid for some reason...true most years the Dawgs would have won the game sc was trying to give to them (i was on sc and nervous the whole time as they refused to put uga away) but that was also a young qbs 1st road test w/o his leading wr (yes i know greene still gone) and as much as the Dawgs struggled to score i liked what i saw from the kid....guess one of us will be happy and maybe after this i will start to believe a little more in the razorbacks (doubtful)......

giver you crack me up you say "not many games" then reel off about 10 or so like nothing i do agree much smaller card for me as well this week....gl giver

Banker, agree with you on Arkansas. Everyone is drinking the kool-aid. While I am willing to back them in this spot against Georgia I am not willing to risk more then a unit on this one while most seem to think this is a no-brainer.

As for not many games, here is what I do. I look at each line, anything that sticks out I research and make my play accordingly. Not many games stuck out. Then around Tuesday/Wednesday I begin to go conference by conference and research each and every game. Whatever sticks out, if I find some things I like, I play. So that is why the plays will have been coming heavy. I always seem to have a ton of plays but I consider myself a volume player.

Gl and why all the name changes? Are you not welcome?

[GiveMeaBJ]

Man that Iowa game is tempting, but a no play for me.

I feel like I am getting trapped. I am always aware of the "traps" each week but I feel like if you play or lay off of teams just based on the trap theory you are going to cause yourself more mental trouble then it's worth. So now, if my research and thoughts back it up I play, if I get trapped it's just another loss. I see so many people on the board talking "trap this" "trap that" and let it get in their heads. This line is so tempting to go big on but I have a rule that I don't go big on road teams anymore, it's just not worth it.

[GiveMeaBJ]

ECU +20 (-115) (1x)
No reason this line should be this high. Va Tech will come out pissed and all but ECU isn't this bad that they get absolutley trashed. We all know ECU has given Va Tech trouble over the past three years and there is no reason they won't come into this game confident looking for an upset. Do I like the fact that ECU has gone from a defensive team to more of a high scoring team? No, but that being said what has Va Techs defense proven thus far? Hell what has Va Techs offense proven thus far. There is no reason ECU can't come out and lose this game by 10. This line is just too high. Will Va Tech win? Yes. Will they win comfortably? Probably. Will they need to backdoor this spread to cover? I think they will. ECU is better then this line is giving them credit for. Va Tech wins by 13 and everyone is happy.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Ok State -7 (1x)
Looks like Ok State planned out the schedule for three easy wins at home. They got their scare last week against Troy, won't happen again against a very weak Tulsa defense.

Nevada +3 (1x)
Just do it.

Alabama/Duke u57.5 (1x)
I don't think Alabama scores 40 and I don't think Duke scores 10. This is about 5 points too high.

Auburn/Clemson u55 (1x)
Rivalry type of game, don't think Clemson will light up the scoreboard. Auburn showed there offense is stoppable.

LSU/Miss St o44 (2x)
The lowest this matchup has gone was 42 in the last 10 years. Landed on 44 once, went over 44 the other 8 times. I'll play the trend.

[GiveMeaBJ]

NCAAF Week 1: 18-8 (+9.40x) (69%)
NCAAF Week 2: 10-5 (+0.60x) (66%)
NCAA 2010 Season: 28-13 (+10.00x) (68%)

Week 3 Card

Thursday
(7:30) NC State ML +110 (1x)

Friday
(10:30) Nevada +3 (1x)

Saturday
(12:00) Penn State -20.5 (1x)
(12:00) North Carolina -1.5 (1x)
(12:00) Arkansas +3 (1x)
(12:00) West Virginia -10 (1x)
(12:00) Kansas St/Iowa St u50 (1x)
(1:30) ECU +20 (-115) (1x)
(3:30) Alabama/Duke u57.5 (1x)
(3:30) Minnesota +12 (1x)
(3:30) Washington +3.5 (1x)
(5:30) Oregon State -19 (1x)
(7:00) Auburn/Clemson u55 (1x)
(7:00) Ok State -7 (1x)
(8:00) LSU/Miss St o44 (2x)
(8:00) Texas -3 (1x)
(8:00) Michigan State -3 (1x)
(10:30) Iowa -1.5 (1x)

[thebestthereis]

love blowjobs

[GiveMeaBJ]

love blowjobs

Everyone does.

[nbarlotta3]

Nice picks. How do you feel about Houston -3?