NCAA Football Odds: Sooners host Seminoles

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  • Chance Harper
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 07-20-07
    • 788

    #1
    NCAA Football Odds: Sooners host Seminoles
    NCAA Football Odds: Sooners host Seminoles

    The second week of the college football schedule is awash in solid matchups, including the top-20 battle in Norman between the Sooners and Seminoles. Oklahoma has been tagged the betting favorite, with the line bet down from the opening 10 to 7½ at some shops. Florida State enters off a rout of Samford last week with OU off a close win over Utah State. ABC has the telecast starting at 3:30 p.m.

    Oklahoma has a 31-game SU winning streak on its home field at Memorial Stadium. It’s the longest home winning streak in college football. That doesn’t mean it’s going to cover the spread when it throws down with Florida State on Saturday afternoon (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC).

    Bettors are thinking along the same lines, too. In fact, they’ve moved the line almost three points since the number was released earlier this week.

    Oddsmakers opened the No. 10 Sooners (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) as 10-point favorites against the No. 17 Seminoles (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS), but public money has come in on the underdogs in a big way. According to consensus data, 64% of plays on the spread have been on Florida State for Saturday’s matchup.

    The ‘Noles are now getting 7½ points from the Sooners at most outlets. A few sportsbooks have Oklahoma as 8-point chalk, while one Vegas shop has the spread at 8½.

    The total has remained around the 57-point number, although 58 was available on the college football betting odds board as of press time.

    This is a tough game to handicap, if only because it’s difficult to gauge both teams’ performance in Week 1. Florida State was dominant in a 59-6 rout of Division II Samford, but how much stock can you put in that victory?

    Oklahoma, on the other hand, played a better opponent in Utah State, and it was reflected in a 31-24 score in favor of the Sooners. Bob Stoops’ team looked impressive in some areas, but was God awful in others for a school that’s ranked in the top 10 in the AP poll.

    Oklahoma got off to a good start last week, but it was exposed in the middle quarters before slipping out the side door at Memorial Stadium. The Sooners led 21-0 in the early going, but the Aggies scored 17 unanswered points to make a game of it in the third quarter.

    DeMarco Murray’s 63-yard touchdown run midway through the third period gave Oklahoma some breathing room, and Jamell Fleming’s interception with 4:12 remaining in the fourth sealed the deal.

    Still, the Sooners came nowhere close to covering as 34-point faves. Utah State actually outgained Oklahoma 421-412, and racked up 341 passing yards including five passes of 31 or more yards.

    Considering the opponent, the Sooners’ secondary was horrible last week, and it needs a fix in a hurry with a healthy Christian Ponder coming to Norman. Fleming, despite his late pick, was overmatched, while senior Jonathan Nelson allowed some big plays on his side of the field.

    If not for a few overthrown balls, Oklahoma could easily have lost last week. Stoops better get it together or there’s no way the Sooners cash ATS on Saturday.

    There were some bright spots for Oklahoma against Utah State, however. Murray finished with 218 yards rushing on 35 carries with two scores, while Ryan Broyles caught nine balls for 142 yards with two TDs for the Sooners.

    Oklahoma also needs a better performance from quarterback Landry Jones, who seemed to lack confidence in the pocket last Saturday. Jones completed only 17 of 36 passes against the Aggies, and had a pair of second-half interceptions to go along with his two TD tosses to Broyles in the first half.

    If we're going by last week’s games, Ponder is easily the best QB of the two starters on Saturday. Ponder is over the shoulder injury that sidelined him last November, and went 12-of-14 for 167 yards with four TDs and a pick last week.

    That said, the Seminoles did allow 300 yards offense agains a Division II school in their opener, so both defenses are questionable heading into Week 2. If anything, expect a high-scoring affair on Saturday that’ll threaten the 57-point total.

    Murray was a stud last week, and there’s little evidence Florida State and new head coach Jimbo Fisher can stop an elite runner. Last season, the Seminoles allowed an average of 6.7 yards per carry in four games against Florida, Georgia Tech, West Virginia, and BYU.
  • itchypickle
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-05-09
    • 21452

    #2
    I'm on the 'Noles + the points a few days ago.
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