Lsu/unc middle?

**CBASS** · 09-03-10, 05:34 PM

I like your thinking on this, however, I don't think it is the right game for it.
UNC is going to be without 10 starters in this game vs. a solid SEC team.
I personally believe that LSU will win by double digits given the circumstances.

**SportsPicks3434** · 09-03-10, 05:45 PM

Yes that is a middle opportunity for you and I would do if if I were you in this situation...BOL

**JDUB07** · 09-03-10, 05:46 PM

Not going to be much of a better scenario then that.

**gryfyn1** · 09-03-10, 05:48 PM

Ive been pondering the same as I have LSU at +1.5, but honestly Im dont think i really have enough on it to make it worth it.

**richyrich8478** · 09-03-10, 05:56 PM

Originally posted by CBASS

I like your thinking on this, however, I don't think it is the right game for it.
UNC is going to be without 10 starters in this game vs. a solid SEC team.
I personally believe that LSU will win by double digits given the circumstances.

are they without only 10 starters... i thought it would be more than that....well thats why i went on LSU and i got a great spread on that game... gonna be a low scoring game either way

**B1GER1C828** · 09-03-10, 05:59 PM

if you got lsu -103 ml then you absolutely should middle...no questions asked.

**sharpcat** · 09-03-10, 06:11 PM

Bad answer

**B1GER1C828** · 09-03-10, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by sharpcat

ABSOLUTELY NOT!!!!! If you have LSU at -103 when the current no-vig line is -286.16 suggesting that LSU has a 74.10% chance of winning where you only need to win 50.74% of the time to break even. You have a 46% edge on this play kelly would recommend betting up to 46% of your bankroll at the odds you currently have. By accepting a middle you are only paying extra juice and sacrificing a lot of value.

but seeing as he didnt account the line moving to -7.5, wouldn't middling be smarter here?

**sharpcat** · 09-03-10, 06:43 PM

Originally posted by B1GER1C828

but seeing as he didnt account the line moving to -7.5, wouldn't middling be smarter here?

Actually I apologize I completely miscalculated the value of the middle I accidentally only accounted for 1 bet winning.

B1GER is 100% correct the middle has way more value.

**fury** · 09-03-10, 06:45 PM

The line is at UNC +8.5 now, wait and see if it keeps moving before you middle.

**B1GER1C828** · 09-03-10, 07:01 PM

Originally posted by sharpcat

Actually I apologize I completely miscalculated the value of the middle I accidentally only accounted for 1 bet winning. B1GER is 100% correct the middle has way more value.

**cakasmaloy** · 09-03-10, 07:13 PM

Thanks a lot for the help guys. This may be a dumb follow up question, but i assume I want to middle with the exact same amount as I originally laid right?

**B1GER1C828** · 09-03-10, 07:25 PM

Originally posted by cakasmaloy

Thanks a lot for the help guys. This may be a dumb follow up question, but i assume I want to middle with the exact same amount as I originally laid right?

pretty much, normally if you get a line say, -5 -110, you'd lay 110 to win 100, then you took the other side +8 -110 110 to win 100..so since you took ml initially, 103 to win 100, you'll still want to lay 110 to win 100(i believe).

**fury** · 09-03-10, 08:14 PM

It's available for +10 now

**cakasmaloy** · 09-03-10, 08:20 PM

Wow... Guess I'll just hold off until tomorrow morning

**LT Profits** · 09-03-10, 08:24 PM

I would NOT middle unless you think UNC + whatever the current spread is has value on its own merit. Otherwise, why dilute the SICK +EV ticket you are holding by hedging it with a coin flip?

**SBR_John** · 09-03-10, 08:30 PM

If it was me I would take some NC Moneyline at +345, at least make sure I couldnt lose. +Even is fun to talk about but cash in your pocket is hard to trump.

**cakasmaloy** · 09-03-10, 08:33 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I would NOT middle unless you think UNC + whatever the current spread is has value on its own merit. Otherwise, why dilute the SICK +EV ticket you are holding by hedging it with a coin flip?

That's a good point.. Would hate to middle and see an LSU blowout and make nothing

**cakasmaloy** · 09-03-10, 08:34 PM

Originally posted by SBR_John

If it was me I would take some NC Moneyline at +345, at least make sure I couldnt lose. +Even is fun to talk about but cash in your pocket is hard to trump.

Hmmmm I like this idea

**LT Profits** · 09-03-10, 08:37 PM

Originally posted by SBR_John

If it was me I would take some NC Moneyline at +345, at least make sure I couldnt lose. +Even is fun to talk about but cash in your pocket is hard to trump.

I think he already has cash in his pocket given the current ML on LSU, hedging with -EV bets will only lessen your profit in the long run unless you intentionally overbet your lead bets with the intention of hedging back later.

**B1GER1C828** · 09-03-10, 08:37 PM

now only if you anticipated the 9 point movement...

id still middle, but this is a weird situation because the huge spread change...so im not sure you could go wrong with whatever you do.

**LT Profits** · 09-03-10, 08:40 PM

Originally posted by cakasmaloy

That's a good point.. Would hate to middle and see an LSU blowout and make nothing

This ^^

You have to examine whether you would play UNC at the current line if you did not already have a play on the game, If the answer is no, just let it ride.

**LT Profits** · 09-03-10, 08:42 PM

Originally posted by B1GER1C828

now only if you anticipated the 9 point movement...

id still middle, but this is a weird situation because the huge spread change...so im not sure you could go wrong with whatever you do.

As he mentioned, he would go wrong if he really doesn't like the UNC play on its own and then LSU blows them out.

**mtneer1212** · 09-03-10, 08:43 PM

If the line goes to 13 or 14, I think he almost has to do it. It has already drifted to 10

**B1GER1C828** · 09-03-10, 08:45 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

As he mentioned, he would go wrong if he really doesn't like the UNC play on its own and then LSU blows them out.

true, but i think too much credit is given to LSU right now...-10 for a decent offense, or am i underestimating their offense(possible, i dont follow it much but i didnt think it was too good)?

and i agree, it comes down to what you said whether to let it ride or not. Which this is where it becomes opinion based no? I personally see a 10 point difference in lines(ml to +10) and just find it hard not to middle this game given LSU's offense.

**LT Profits** · 09-03-10, 08:48 PM

Originally posted by mtneer1212

If the line goes to 13 or 14, I think he almost has to do it. It has already drifted to 10

Yes, everything I said goes out the window if this line keeps rising to the point where UNC becomes +EV.

Could set up the rarest situation of all, having +EV bets of both sides of the same game.

**LT Profits** · 09-03-10, 08:50 PM

Originally posted by B1GER1C828

true, but i think too much credit is given to LSU right now...-10 for a decent offense, or am i underestimating their offense(possible, i dont follow it much but i didnt think it was too good)?

and i agree, it comes down to what you said whether to let it ride or not. Which this is where it becomes opinion based no? I personally see a 10 point difference in lines(ml to +10) and just find it hard not to middle this game given LSU's offense.

The +10 has more to do with UNC playing their third-stringers, water boy and a couple of cheerleaders than it has to do with LSU offense.

**B1GER1C828** · 09-03-10, 08:52 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

The +10 has more to do with UNC playing their third-stringers, water boy and a couple of cheerleaders than it has to do with LSU offense.

lol. Well i didnt play this game, so whatever he chooses to do, i wish him the best of luck.

**sharpcat** · 09-03-10, 09:04 PM

I think you would find that the middle would likely have more value because he is crossing several key numbers here and should he find UNC at -105 he is basically getting 40-1 on his money and I am sure that the middle has far more than a 2.44% chance of winning when crossing the 3 and the 7. It would be important to know the probability of the middle hitting with access to a historical database using games with a similar total score to asses the value of the middle.

**cakasmaloy** · 09-03-10, 09:05 PM

I do appreciate all the insight guys. Not really sure I understand +EV concept as well as I probably should... Either of you guys mind giving me a quick lesson?

**George7904** · 09-03-10, 09:13 PM

Why on Earth would you try to middle??? Ask yourself this question- if you could get more of your LSU bet would you take it? Of course you should. You have a great +EV play and you want to reduce your edge by making a -EV bet??? Unless you have an insane amount of money on your LSU bet- leave it alone.

EV= expected value.

**LT Profits** · 09-03-10, 09:20 PM

Originally posted by sharpcat

I think you would find that the middle would likely have more value because he is crossing several key numbers here and should he find UNC at -105 he is basically getting 40-1 on his money and I am sure that the middle has far more than a 2.44% chance of winning when crossing the 3 and the 7. It would be important to know the probability of the middle hitting with access to a historical database using games with a similar total score to asses the value of the middle.

This game is unique though in that line move is 100% due to suspensions. If the suspensions were known before the opening line came out, the opener would have been a lot closer to the current number. You are almost forced to just dismiss the real opener here and treat the first line after the suspensions were known as the "true" opener, not unlike a baseball pitching change from Roy Halladay to Ed Whitson.

**sharpcat** · 09-03-10, 09:26 PM

Hypothetically speaking when this thread was started and the line was at 7.5 he had a 76% chance of winning a bet at -103 which would have given him roughly a 46% EDGE.

Now if he got UNC at -105 +7.5 he would either lose $5 or win $200 (40-1) at 40-1 the break even point is 2.44%, now assume the middle was likely to land 10% of the time he would have a 310% edge on this play.

Sure he only has a 10% chance of winning but if he were to make each of these plays 100 times he would find that the middle would be far more profitable.

a quick look at the half point calculator tells you that the push rate of the 3 in NCAAF is 6.39% and the 7 is 5.28%, now these push rates do not necessarily fit with the game total of 43 but I am sure that with the 1/2/3/4/5/6/7 that this middle has at least a 10% chance of hitting.

**sharpcat** · 09-03-10, 09:29 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

This game is unique though in that line move is 100% due to suspensions. If the suspensions were known before the opening line came out, the opener would have been a lot closer to the current number. You are almost forced to just dismiss the real opener here and treat the first line after the suspensions were known as the "true" opener, not unlike a baseball pitching change from Roy Halladay to Ed Whitson.

I agree LT but the no-vig ML when the game was at 7.5 suggested a 75% win probability for LSU with his bet being at -103.

All that is important now is the new line, the question is what is the push frequency of the 1/2/3/4/5/6/7 on a games with a projected total of 43 and a spread of 7.5???