Joe_'s '10 College Football Thread

**kboiler** · 08-24-10, 03:31 PM

BOL man, should be an exciting season!

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 08-24-10, 03:38 PM

O.K., so, the season opener: Souther Mississippi at South Carolina; I have crunched the numbers and factored in what each team returns, a meager, 3-game set of game film for the teams, respectively, and good old subjective prognostication.

What I've come up with is a base spread of my own that will surely (hopefully) improve in its proposed accuracy as additional, significant data if logged.

If you will, the projected score:

Southern Miss. - 24.08 [+14]
South Carolina - 33.3

There will be a write-up to follow later on, but, for now, I will continue with some other match-ups on September 2nd.

Marshall - 4.0
Ohio State - 48.35 [-29.5]

Southern California - 53.83 [-21]
Hawai'i - 15.12

And, on Saturday September 4th, one game so far:

U-Conn - 34.6 [+3]
Michigan - 31.3

Feel free to discuss. I'm sure there will be disagreement, as these numbers may be off (notably on the totals) from what's represented in the opening lines, but I'm trying to continue my late-season success from '08/'09.

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 08-24-10, 04:56 PM

Originally posted by Joe_Shabadoo

Southern California - 53.83 [-21]
Hawai'i - 15.12

Now, there are more filters and analysis to do on this, though I have done quite a bit on this game as it jumped out on paper when I calculated the projected spread.

I can see Lane Kiffin and co. set at full-go, every series, for 35-40 minutes of possession to make a statement about the future of U.S.C., as was done last year against Western Kentucky in his debut with Tennessee. He's going to sell his brand here.

**kalamity85** · 08-24-10, 05:49 PM

i live in hawaii and have followed USC extensively during the offseason so i know a decent amount about hawaii and a lot about USC. i didn't think USC would score that much points but that score is pretty darn close to what i was projecting (USC - 45, UH - 17)

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 08-24-10, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by kalamity85

i live in hawaii and have followed USC extensively during the offseason so i know a decent amount about hawaii and a lot about USC. i didn't think USC would score that much points but that score is pretty darn close to what i was projecting (USC - 45, UH - 17)

This will be a good litmus test of Lane's demonstrable control.

Either this team will have fvcked around too much during the whole time after arrival, or they'll be locked-in, treating this game as test of consummate execution, and an opportunity for intense "conditioning".

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 08-24-10, 08:31 PM

Monday, September 6th:

Boise State - 27.02
Virginia Tech - 27.3 [+3]

Maryland - 22.3
Navy - 32.9 [-7]

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 08-26-10, 03:37 AM

Added projections:

Pittsburgh - 25.43 [+2]
Utah - 25.27

L.S.U. - 16.16 [+1]
North Carolina - 15.17

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 08-26-10, 03:39 AM

Many, many write-ups to follow in the coming days so one can put a pin into what I'm mulling over.

Good luck.

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 08-26-10, 03:45 AM

Edit: There was a mathematical error on the S. Miss./S. Carolina matchup.

The fianlized projection:

Southern Mississippi - 19.08 [+13]
South Carolina - 28.3

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 08-31-10, 04:39 AM

Originally posted by Joe_Shabadoo

Southern California - 53.83 [-21]
Hawai'i - 15.12

9/2/2010: U.S.C. [-21 / -110] ($550.00 to win $500.00)

YTD: +$3,530.00

The PITT/UTAH is just driving me crazy; the more I research it and simulate, the more it seems that I can't get a feel for it in terms of what constitues significant value.

I have a strong lean towards Utah, but I'm staying away and will just enjoy watching it.

Additionally, I'm looking over the 'under' in the Marshall/Ohio State, and it may turn into my 2nd play.

Good luck.

My only official play on Thursday will be the aforementioned wager on U.S.C.

**MartinBlank** · 08-31-10, 06:02 AM

Originally posted by Joe_Shabadoo

Now, there are more filters and analysis to do on this, though I have done quite a bit on this game as it jumped out on paper when I calculated the projected spread.

I can see Lane Kiffin and co. set at full-go, every series, for 35-40 minutes of possession to make a statement about the future of U.S.C., as was done last year against Western Kentucky in his debut with Tennessee. He's going to sell his brand here.

Joe. That is a solid angle concerning USC. Kiffin's need to "show" he can win and win big at SC. GL.

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 08-31-10, 08:02 PM

Originally posted by Joe_Shabadoo

9/2/2010: U.S.C. [-21 / -110] ($550.00 to win $500.00) YTD: +$3,530.00 The PITT/UTAH is just driving me crazy; the more I research it and simulate, the more it seems that I can't get a feel for it in terms of what constitues significant value. I have a strong lean towards Utah, but I'm staying away and will just enjoy watching it. Additionally, I'm looking over the 'under' in the Marshall/Ohio State, and it may turn into my 2nd play. Good luck. My only official play on Thursday will be the aforementioned wager on U.S.C.

O.K., the degernate gambler in me has consciously taken over; I'm taking my aforementioned lean towards the Utes and parlaying the moneyline with U.S.C. (-21).

The more that I look at how impressive Utah's prized J.C. left tackle, John Cullen, has been with his added weight, James Aiono's afforded flexibility, and how former Ute hero, Brian Johnson, has been bringing Jordan Wynn along, I going to bite on this. I see a two-possession deficit for PITT late in the game.

9/2/2010: Utah [ML - 145]; U.S.C. [-21] [Parlay] ($500 to win $1,112.85)

Good luck to all.

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 09-02-10, 05:16 PM

Some additional thoughts on tonight's games:

With the talk of newly acquired special teams coach John Baxter from Fresno State, I had to look into his realm of practice and routine; needless to say, with the talent afforded to him there at S.C. I think that his units could be one of the best in the country right off of the bat, especially in the kick-blocking department (look for at least one of these splash plays tonight).
As I've already intimated, Kiffin & co. are really treating this as a truncated business trip. His family remains in L.A., and he's not fvcking around here. This game is of sole national focus tonight. It's not as if U.S.C. needs help in recruiting, but getting the likes of Andrus Peat, Antwuan Woods, Vei Moala, Ian Iwalani Seau, Paulay Asiata, & Brent Calloway to make up their minds soon with the allure of being in a veritable advanced placement program for the N.F.L. would assuredly being helped tonight with a thorough beat down and display of execution (getting Johnathan Crompton to finally have a good season, and Dan Williams' lazy ass into the 1st-round was part-&-parcel of this process last year with the staff at hand).
I liked what I saw in the "bronco" coverage concepts that Monte seemed to incorporate more & more when getting used to the college game last season. I especially was impressed with how he was able to instill and pragmatically teach it to 18-22-year-olds. I think a lot of "zone-trail-to-man-free SCIF" concepts will be used tonight to match Hawai'i's attemtp to counter the talent discrepancy. Bryant Moniz is a good athlete, and may not get sacked a lot, but he will be hit A LOT tonight.
A small thought on the PITT/UTAH game: I'm a little surprised that PITT was not afforded at least 48 hours of altitude acclimation; teams like Wyoming and Colorado State have always made sure to have that window time when coming into S.L.C.

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 09-02-10, 11:22 PM

Great game.

Now, if I can only get Lane to stop going for 2 every time that they score.

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 09-02-10, 11:30 PM

PITT was fortunate to have been in this game. The score was not as close as the performance.

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 09-03-10, 12:22 AM

Regression to the mean: U.S.C. is going to seize control of this game in a big way in the 2nd-half.

Watch out.

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 09-03-10, 12:35 AM

Somebody's been lifting this summer. Wheaties may have been involved, too.

**FUpv** · 09-03-10, 12:40 AM

Good luck with your USC play. Looks good so far

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 09-03-10, 02:41 AM

Bad for me; really fvcking bad for S.C.

I wouldn't want to be a defender when they get back to L.A. That was embarrassing.

Here's a couple of things that stood out to me, and I'm sure I'll see more when I watch the replay tomorrow:

Ed Orgeron must've been fvcking high --- the D-line looked like a bunch of blue-chippers going against J.V. scrubs at the end of their Senior season, thinking that they don't have to chop wrists, get their hands inside for control, disengage, and most importantly: Have their damned heads up and reading the backfield.
Rush lanes were a fanciful thought, and their adjusted responsibilites looked to have been eschewed by these geniuses, because their teammates at the 2nd-level were clearly not expecting to be in their drops that deep AND have to play against unimpeded runs.
Sloppy, matter-of-fact, lazy fvcking play by the secondary when squeezing their areas of the field.
"Wait, what's that, by-ho --- a sack!? No?! WHAT, I have to keep running down the seem? But I'm the under-defender!" --- nondescript Trojan defensive back (September 2nd, 2010)

If this happens again, then I can't chalk it up to being an anomaly. More importantly, for this team, well, damn, they better get their assignments down, and re-learn defensive fundamentals.

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 09-03-10, 05:33 PM

YTD:

NFL pre-season: 3-4-1
NCAAF: 1-1
+ $3,030

9/3/2010: Arizona/Toledo (1st-half; OVER 30 / -105) [$105 to win $100]

Just a small play here. I made a good deal of money going to Tim Beckman's squad last year at home against Colorado straight-up, and I see that, with Morgan Williams back, they may have the most N.F.L.-level talent of any M.A.C. team other than Temple (& it's entirely on the offensive side of the ball).

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 09-08-10, 03:43 PM

9/9/2010: Mississippi State (Moneyline / +120) [$200 to win $240)

Write-up to follow.

Went real timid last week and only pulled $500 in the black after the Boise/V.T. over hit, but it wasn't documented, so back to the start: YTD: $2,925.

I'll be up to date fully now.

Good luck.

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 09-10-10, 08:09 PM

9/10/2010: Houston [1st-half; -11 / -110] ($220 to win $200)

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 09-11-10, 03:52 AM

Houston.

Nice.

Tomorrow:

9/11/2010: Hawaii [+2 / -110] (2.2 units)

East Carolina [-13.5 / -110] (3.3 units)

Ohio State [-8.5 / -110] (2.2 units)

Oklahoma [-7 / -110] (2.2 units)

B.Y.U. [Moneyline / +105] (2 units)

Alabama [-12 / -110] (2.2 units)

U.S.C. [-20.5 / -110] (2.2 units)

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 09-15-10, 01:57 AM

Originally posted by Joe_Shabadoo

Houston. Nice. Tomorrow: 9/11/2010: Hawaii [+2 / -110] (2.2 units)

East Carolina [-13.5 / -110] (3.3 units)

Ohio State [-8.5 / -110] (2.2 units)

Oklahoma [-7 / -110] (2.2 units)

B.Y.U. [Moneyline / +105] (2 units)

Alabama [-12 / -110] (2.2 units)

U.S.C. [-20.5 / -110] (2.2 units)

4-2.

Meh. I was fooled, yet again, by 'S.C. No more of that, thank you.

Jake Heaps, surprisingly, was kept on the sideline by Bronco Mendenhall, and, well, B.Y.U. felt "The Wrath of Riley Nelson".

This week, so far the plays that I've made are:

Cal (-3.0 / -110) [3.3 units]
Iowa (-2.0 / -110) [5.5 units]

More to come.

Good luck.

**over5.5** · 09-15-10, 02:20 AM

im in for both

Cal (-3.0 / -110) [3.3 units]
Iowa (-2.0 / -110) [5.5 units]

thanks for the pick!

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 09-17-10, 05:05 PM

9/17/2010: Cal [-3 / -110] ($330 to win $300)

[COLOR=#000000 !important]I understand the, as I've said so many times about this game now, caution being taken by people when just looking at the line.

But, has anyone really handicapped this game by actually watching these teams play? I mean: Have you guys really delved into this, or are just going by the line, or lines of thought along the lines of "...it's going to be loud in Reno...", or "...I heard that Kaepernick guy is really good..."?

Watching this defense for the past 6 six years, it's become a little ridiculous how the defensive unit has been managed. They've gone back & forth from trying to be a cover-3 team/4-man rush/man-under defense, but when they go to a trail technique it's really obvious how much of a talent and skill discrepancy there is.

Poor discipline and overall team speed (aside from Dontay Moch who gloats about his 4.25 that he supposedly can bust out) are glaring with this defense. Josh Mauga was probably the best fundamental player that's come through here since DeShawn Myles, but he's long gone now. Even having Duke Williams questionable for this game could really hurt the flow of the secondary.

The offense, yeah they throw up ridiculous numbers on the W.A.C., but I've seen their games when matched with upper-echelon universities; they become lost as the game goes on when they're unable to set up their 6-8-play tree out their base set, and all threat leaves their downhill attack. Kaep then is forced to start look downfield (though the emergence of Virgil Green has really helped underneath) and, suffice to say, he is not a pretty, proficient passer (like a poor-man's-Matt Jones/Uncle Rico side-arm combination).

In sumation, I think Cal is going to pull away, midway through the 3rd-quarter and Chris Ault is going to look like the most indignant man in the stadium yet again.[/COLOR]

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 09-18-10, 04:28 AM

Wow, I don't think I've been less angry when losing a bet. I must admit, I was even grinning with my buddies at times after I knew the game was completely lost looking at Tedford's insistance in putting Kevin Riley in the 'gun on 2nd-&-5 or 3rd-&-4; I'm sure Shane Vereen felt the same. Nonetheless, I can't win 'em all.

Good game.

On to tomorrow:

Oklahoma (-17 / -110) [2.2 units]
Texas Tech (Moneyline / +130) [2.2 units]
Mississippi State (+7.5 / -110) [2.2 units]
Florida State (-10.5 / -110) [2.2 units]
Iowa (-2 / -110) [5.5 units]

Good luck.

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 10-01-10, 09:55 PM

O.K.

I have my bills paid for a while now; back to it:

Army (+6 / -110) [2.2 units]
Clemson (Moneyline / +135) [2 units]
'Bama (1st-half; -4 / -110) [2.2 units]
Ole Miss (-3 / -110) [2.2 units]
N.C. State (+3.5 / -110) [2.2 units]
Michigan State (Moneyline / +120) [2 units]
Navy (+10 / -110) [2.2 units]
Southern Cal (-10 / -110) [2.2 units]
Stanford (Moneyline / +220) [2 units]