BOISE STATE to win BCS +900

[nobs]

This line is current at youwager. The Greek has Boise State at +800 to win the BCS.

This line is fking NUTS. Both books have Alabama at +400 to win it again this year.

Yet Alabama's win total is 9 1/2 or 10 depending on the book. Boise States win total is 11. Both teams play 12 games. This makes no sense and just further shows how lines at books are often very ineffiecent.

When we look at win totals, books are saying Bama will lose 2 maybe 3 games, while Boise State will lose 1, but Bama is 3 times more likely to win the BCS title ???

Anyway this isnt about Bama, its about the fact that Boise State at +900 is stupid crazy idiotic +EV. This team returns 10 starters on offense and 10 starters on defense from last years 14-0 team that outscored the world by like 25 points. This was the highest scoring offense last year and with this weak schedule it probably will be again.

Boise State has 1 test this year. They open at Virginia Tech. That is the only game in question. But guess what ? Virginia Tech returns 4 defensive starters and this defense is not going to be good this year, and definitely not during week 1. Boise State will likely roll this Va Tech defense and win this game big. Remember Boise State is bringing back their whole offense while Va Tech has pretty much all new starters on defense.

Even if Boise State loses to Va Tech, which they wont but even if they do, they will probably only fall to like #8-#10 in the rankings and they will still work their way back into the national tital picture by winning their next 11. A loss at Va Tech is not going to be a deal killer if Boise ends up 11-1.

There is a big differnce for Boise this year. They start off #5 in one poll and #3 in the other poll. Lets keep it real here, Alabama is going to lose and they are going to lose more than once. They arent that great, they have a good deal of new starters and most importantly they play a brutal ass schedule. Florida is going to lose, Texas ( big 12 ) is going to lose, and Ohio State is probably going to lose.

IF Boise loses, it will be in week 1 and they will still jump ahead of Bama, Florida, and Texas because those teams loses will be later in the season.

Seriously who could possibly beat the Broncos after week 1

WYOMING
OREGON STATE
NEW MEXICO STATE
TOLEDO
SAN JOSE STATE
LA TECH
HAWAII
IDAHO
FRESNO STATE
NEVADA
UTAH STATE

I think the real question is which if any of these teams can stay within 20 points of Boise State.

I know nothing is a guarantee, but Boise State should roll those last 11 games and they have shown they win games they are supposed to win. 14-0 last year, 49-3 last 4 years. They should win those last 11 and if history is any indication, they will take care of business.

If this team goes 12-0 or even 11-1 ( losing to Va Tech ) I dont see how the BCS could not give them a shot at the title after they went 14-0 last year and didnt get a shot.

Then once they get to the title game it depends on who they are playing, but whoever it is you can hedge the other side easily. I would expect Boise will be a small favorite against whoever they play but they will be no more than a -150 dog.

Fact is looking at their schedule and the fact that Va Tech's D is way down this year, there just is no sense at all in Boise State being +900 to win the BCS. The fact is with Boise's easy ass schedule, and already being ranked top 5, they are the most likely of ANY team to win the BCS yet there are like 6 teams who are lower than +900.

I think +400 on Boise would be +EV, I know +900 is.

[jcubs55]

The V Tech game is in DC at a neutral site, although there will obviously be more VT fans there. Boise will win that game though, lay the FG in Week 1 for a nice cash. After that, Idaho might prove to be a tough game in a hostile environment on the road vs an in-state rival, and Nevada can play Boise tough. I think they run the table though, which they will have to do to guarantee themselves a spot in the BCS game. I'm on Boise St to win it all as well, at +1200 (was on pinny a few weeks ago). Let's get it this year!

[nobs]

I agree they will beat Va Tech pretty easily.

[RonMexico]

don't forget about that tech offense though. Evans set an acc freshmen record rushing for 1,265. He sat last year out while Ryan Williams rushed for 1,655. Tyrod Taylor has 3 years experience under his belt too. That offense is loaded. Bud Foster will have the defense ready too, you can count on that. I'll be on tech in this one

[ACCBlitz]

don't forget about that tech offense though. Evans set an acc freshmen record rushing for 1,265. He sat last year out while Ryan Williams rushed for 1,655. Tyrod Taylor has 3 years experience under his belt too. That offense is loaded. Bud Foster will have the defense ready too, you can count on that. I'll be on tech in this one

Great assessment. The Hokies may have lost a few guys on defense but when's the last time we saw a bad Bud Foster squad? Offensively they have enough fire power to run with just about anyone in the country.

I won't go out and say they'll beat Boise, but people thinking Tech will lose BAD are in for a disappointment.

Very rarely is there a game I REFUSE to touch, but this is one

[nobs]

Even if they lose to Va Tech, they would still play for the title at 11-1 IMO. A loss to Va TEch drops them maybe to #10, then they would have to win their next 11 ( which they have to do anyway ), but I think they would creep back up each week and by the time conf. play starts they would be back up to #5 or #6 or higher. Then in SEC play I say both Bama and Fla will take a loss and Texas will in the big 12, so I say Boise would still have time to get back up to #2 or even #1 if they lose to Va Tech

[RonMexico]

no way boise gets to play in the title with a loss. A one loss florida, alabama, ohio st, texas, oklahoma, etc would definitely get in before them because of strength of schedule.

[Sean81]

What do you think the odds drop to if Boise beats Va tech in game 1? +700, +650? I think it will more valuable to wait until after the Va tech game to make this bet. The key risk is whether or not Boise gets to play for the title even with an undefeated record, although its likely they would this season. I agree with Ron that there would be no chance they play for the title with any loss.

Maybe Boise becomes the favorite to win it all if they beat Va tech but I dont think its likely

[woodsen2]

Oregon State may give them a game although its unlikely in Boise.
They have no shot to play for the title with one loss. Two loss teams would get in ahead of them.
I think we're gonna see another year where two bcs schools (alabama, texas, ohio state, florida) go undefeated and the broncos are on the outside looking in (and rightly so)

[reverend]

if they get by VT, this bet has a very solid chance

[THEGREAT30]

It's worth a shot, but as usual I don't care what there ranking is every team in a power conference will have to lose for them to win it

[Sean81]

I think taking Boise to win the BCS is a great idea, and think they are as talented and experienced as any team in the country.

But does anyone have an educated guess as to what this future will pay assuming a Boise win in wk1. Nobody ahead of them has a reasonable chance of losing wk1 so it is unlikely they will move up in the polls.

It would suck to have a losing ticket after the 1st game of the season in basically a pickem game.

[aznjeff07]

it could be +8000 and i wouldn't put my money on boise st for a championship

[nobs]

I think taking Boise to win the BCS is a great idea, and think they are as talented and experienced as any team in the country.

But does anyone have an educated guess as to what this future will pay assuming a Boise win in wk1. Nobody ahead of them has a reasonable chance of losing wk1 so it is unlikely they will move up in the polls.

It would suck to have a losing ticket after the 1st game of the season in basically a pickem game.

I would still think it drops as books realize if they win week 1, they probably have a 75% chance of going 12-0

[nobs]

it could be +8000 and i wouldn't put my money on boise st for a championship

Wow, thats crazy.

I would love to get that at +8000. Team is ranked #3 already, went 14-0 last year and play nobody after week 1

[fishmonger]

Watch them lose to Utah State last game of the season. It would be like the time Pitt beat WV last game of the season to ruin everything for them.

[ringemup]

the vtech game is not as easy as it looks i wouldnt pencil in a W there jus yet

[Wrecktangle]

still not good enough

[travis2x]

people who pencil in a W in the virginia tech are completely fools who don't watch college football, they just read the stats or reviews of games.

virginia tech ALL around is a better stronger team than boise state. i could be wrong because virginia tech could have an off year BUT all around this team boise state looks so good because of all the chumps they play and they have double talent of them. people immediately respond with... well they beat oregon? they beat oklahoma in 06? sure they did and i give them credit for that. thats a couple good teams right? well how many GOOD teams has alabama beat? florida? oklahoma? we can go pretty high in the double digits for that one. one quality opponent in a whole season doesn't mean ANYTHING in playing for a championship. and while they CAN beat anyone in the country on any given day, if they played a regular schedule full of quality opponents, we wouldn't be having this discussion right now. they would easily lose 3-6 games a year, even more possibly. and while that doesn't matter to some people, it matters to educated people. i say a 2 loss SEC team deserves a shot at the national title over an undefeated boise state team. you wanna see boise state play a real test in a championship game? it would most likely be a blowout. they shouldve played alabama last year some say? yeah so we can watch a boring cakewalk of a championship game. there are gonna haveta be some serious 2 loss teams for boise to even be considered.

what makes me the most mad is all these boise state bandwagoners who don't understand what i'm saying at all. this is why you see ohio state losing to purdue, usc losing to washington, nebraska losing to iowa state. because these teams play tough teams and get beat up week after week and slip up once in a while. boise doesn't have that problem, and they are more fresh come bowl time because of it.

money wise. i wouldnt bet on it. and for those who do. goodluck

[RonMexico]

this game may not be in lane stadium, but it is definitely a home game for virginia tech. Here is a video of the last time they played at fedex field against #1 USC. You can barely hear the announcers. Tech was unranked going into this game and most likely would have pulled off the upset if it weren't for an offensive pass interference call.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09yxIX3aPKk

[rwsmith]

This year i dont think a 1 loss team will jump boise st. especially with boise state starting so high...i like +900 for them to make it ....but not to WIN it

[Terrapin Station]

Like those odds.

[Hawk007]

I love this bet you can always hedge it if they make the Championship game...$3 to win $28.50.

Boise knows how to win and will most likely beat V Tech. Then its a gravy train...

[andywend]

Even if they lose to Va Tech, they would still play for the title at 11-1 IMO.

Nobs, is this the first exposure you have ever had to college football and the BCS system?

Not only will Boise State NOT play for the title at 11-1, the chances are slim they would play for the title at 12-0 due to that ridiculous soft schedule they have every single year.

Why do you believe this year will be any different than all the prior years where Boise State went undefeated and were NEVER seriously considered for the championship game?

Boise State to win the BCS @ +900 is a horrible wager. BTW, if they lose to Virginia Tech and go 11-1, they will NOT be considered for any BCS game let alone the BCS championship game.

[rockchalk24]

Don't like it. To bet on +900, there needs to be greater than a 10% chance of them winning the title.

To win this bet, 3 things need to happen:
1) Boise St. goes undefeated.
2) They get to play in the BCS title game
3) They win the BCS title game.

I'd put them running the table at about 40%, playing in the title game given going undefeated at about 50%, and winning the title game given that they've gotten there at about 45%. This comes out to 9%. Not worth it IMO.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Alabama is +400 because they can win the BCS with one loss whereas BSU can't. Having said that, the +900 is a pretty good bet; BSU has essentially a two-game season for the title, the Va Tech game and the bowl game.

[scarp]

il take VT before Boise State

[Superman455]

Very risky in my book. If they run the table during the year, they still have a win the big game. GL

[Hawk007]

Nobs, is this the first exposure you have ever had to college football and the BCS system?

Not only will Boise State NOT play for the title at 11-1, the chances are slim they would play for the title at 12-0 due to that ridiculous soft schedule they have every single year.

Why do you believe this year will be any different than all the prior years where Boise State went undefeated and were NEVER seriously considered for the championship game?

Boise State to win the BCS @ +900 is a horrible wager. BTW, if they lose to Virginia Tech and go 11-1, they will NOT be considered for any BCS game let alone the BCS championship game.

Boise St is ranked #3, they are finally getting the recognition they deserve. If they beat V Tech they will remain there at worst. As long as they go undefeated why would they drop any lower? They might have a close game here or there but as long as they win they will finish the year ranked #1 or #2.

This is a very formidable team that won't take the foot off the pedal knowing what's at stake for them. There will be plenty of blowout victories for them to stay very high in the poles.

[Sean81]

Unfortunately, the poll they are ranked #3 in is the AP which is not part of the BCS formula. They are preseason #5 in the USA Today which is part of the BCS, and the Harris wont come out until later in the season. It cant hurt being ranked #1 or #2 in the AP in terms of perception, but that poll will not have direct impact.

[nobs]

Nobs, is this the first exposure you have ever had to college football and the BCS system?

Yes Andy, it is.

Please teach me oh brilliant one.

[Mac4Lyfe]

This year i dont think a 1 loss team will jump boise st. especially with boise state starting so high...i like +900 for them to make it ....but not to WIN it

A 1 loss SEC, B12, B10 and Pac10 team will ALL jump Boise State. BSU's schedule will kill them down the stretch. Yes they are ranked high now and could go higher but once they get into their conference they will have no chance of moving up further and other teams will catch them. The SECCG and Big12 CG will allow 2 teams to leap from Boise and rational voters will realize that BSU has played only 2 quality opponents.

Boise has a good chance of getting in a BCS game but your crazy if you think they're going to make the championship game AND your even crazier if you think they can actually win that game.

How many players starting for BSU could start for OSU, UF, OU, UT, Bama, USC??? 1 guy at the most...

[Sean81]

I don't see how they get kept out of the title game assuming they are undefeated and no more than one other team from a power conference in undefeated. You would be looking at a team with two consecutive undefeated seasons with a BCS win. The BCS has compromised with non-AQ teams in the past by adding an extra game and reducing the qualifications for a guaranteed a spot. Boise has been hyped this year to be the first non-AQ to make the championship game much more than any team in the past. I think they get the benefit of the doubt.

[steve18]

There is no way they get in if they lose to Va Tech. I can promise you that. +900 is very good value though.

[siabdo23]

yes they will have to beat v tech for that matter