Bowl Write up ASU/Texas, just some info and a pick

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • mofome
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 12-19-07
    • 13003

    #1
    Bowl Write up ASU/Texas, just some info and a pick
    Texas -2 vs Arizona State : o/u 62.5

    #12 Arizona State (10-2)
    Pac-10
    sos: 58
    6-6 ATS


    #17 Texas (9-3)
    Big-12
    sos: 79
    6-6 ATS


    In the holiday bowl we have a team that began the season at #7 and had dreams of a bcs championship, against a team that was in the pac-10 title hunt until the final 2 weeks of the season. From the first week, we knew this wasnt Vince Youngs version of the longhorns. In week one Texas held on to beat ark state by 8 and the season seemed to be off on the wrong foot, even with a win. Back to back losses, in the middle of the season, to kansas state and ou pretty much sealed this teams fate as one that would be on the outside looking in at the bcs. ASU started off a bit differently, truly dominating through their first 8 games before they ran into Dennis Dixon and the Oregon Ducks. ASU still controlled their own destiny late into november, but a blow out loss at the hands of usc ended their dreams of a pac-10 title. ASU really finished the season poorly going 2-2 with very close wins over UCLA and instate rival Arizona.


    Texas:
    The longhorns proved to be tough upfront, as usual, and ended up ranked 25th in the nation rushing the football. the Horns managed almost exactly 200 yards a game and 4.90 yards a carry. 2005 hs all-american, Jamaal Charles is the big play guy in the backfield, he averages over 6.2 a carry and had 16 rushing touchdowns. Jamaal is pretty much a one man show at tailback, QB Colt mccoy finished the season as the teams 2nd leading rusher. Through the air QB colt Mccoy leads the 36th ranked passing attack in the nation. After an amazing freshman year, the young signal caller had his struggles in 2007. Mccoy through for over 3100 yards and 21 tds, but he also tossed 18 picks which really cost the burnt orange a few times this season. On the outside, Jones and Cosby give texas a couple play makers, but there is no one that teams have to truly gameplan for in this group of wideouts. Texas does have a good weapon over the middle in TE, J Finely, but he hasnt found many scoring chances this season. As talented as he is, its a bit surprising the texas hasnt found a way to get the ball in the hands of jamaal charles more in the passing game, but he only has 15 catches on the year and none for scores. The horns offense really missed having Sweed all year.
    On defense texas is strong as always against the run where they rank 10th nationally. Many of us saw what a nasty front 7 can do vs the weak asu offensive line when we wacted the Sun devils plays USC. The Longhorns front isnt as talented, but they're still one of the nations elite. One thing that this front doesnt do is get after the qb all that well. Texas is 60th in the country in sacks with 24. Now we come to the pass defense. If you're a horns fan you know where this is going, the texas longhorns rank a ridiculous 109th in the nation vs the pass, giving up 275 yards a game through the air. And ive got to tell ya, the big-12 offenses are not That good or That wide open. This group just cant seem to get the job done. Mr Rudy Carpenter is licking his chops watching the horns secondary on film.

    ASU:
    The Sun devils have an awful offensive line and they only manage 3.37 ypc on the year. That doesnt figure to improve in the Holiday bowl, but it may not need to. the thing about that is in college football sacks go into a teams rushing statistics and rudy Carpenter has been sacked about 300 times. Truly, the sun devils have a couple of very talented backs Torain and herring. Keegan Herring is the feature back and he averages 5.4 a carry on 152 attempts. Under Erickson, Asu runs a pro style offense and they'll be patient with their run game so as to keep the longhorns from pinning their ears back and rushing Carpenter on every down. When its time to through, asu does so with some decent success. asu finished 38th in passing this season. Carpenter is a guy a lot of pro scouts like and im sure he'll be projected as a first day guy in the 2009 nfl draft. he gets a lot of pressure and he takes a lot of sacks, but hes a tough kid and hes got a great arm. Chris McGaha is their possession guy and you'll likely hear him compared to wes welker or b stokely because hes white. you'll also likely hear someone compliment the routes he runs. 6-4 Wr Michael Jones is their big play guy, hes got 8 tds on the season. Jones wasnt someone that was real highly recruited out of hs, but hes plenty good and he'll be playing on sundays in a couple years. the longhorns are sure to double him when they can and try to make asu beat them on the other side of the field and on the ground.
    The defense; When most people think of the pac-10 they dont think of defense, but asu has had a nice year on that side of the ball. the sun devils are in the top 15 in the country vs the run allowing only 3.4 a carry and 7 tds on the season. Arizona states defense is lead by soph dexter davis who has 10 and a half sacks and never quits on a play. overall this front plays hard and they'll make charles earn what he gets. defending the pass is something asu has struggled with a bit in 2007. they rank 69th, allowing 233 yards a game. If they can get a rush on texas, they can force mccoy into some mistakes. typically the longhorns dont allow many sacks, but they've allowed 23 this season and being able to get pressure on mccoy will make life easier on this secondary.



    play makers:
    asu db troy nolan. 6 picks on the season and two have been taken in for scores.
    asu punt returner kyle williams is 24 in the nation
    asu kicker thomas weber was the best kicker in the country in 2007
    texas kicker ryan bailey is one of the best in the country.



    stats of note:
    texas is 10th in the nation in converting on 3rd downs
    asu is 66th in the nation in converting on 3rd downs
    texas is 66th in the nation in holding on 3rd down when on defense
    asu is 10th in the nation in holding on 3rd down when on defense

    i realize its 10 vs 66 and 10 vs 66 in those catagories.



    my play: ASU +2


    (mofome)




    the line sits at 2.5 now. i realize that ASU has an awful offensive line, but texas doesnt have anyone in the top 100 in sacks this season. we'll see whos weakness proves to be more costly; the asu oline or the texas defensive backfield.

    gl guys
  • mofome
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 12-19-07
    • 13003

    #2
    Alabama -3.5 vs Colorado : o/u 51

    Alabama (6-6)
    SEC
    sos: 23
    2-9 ATS



    Colorado (6-6)
    Big-12
    sos 32
    6-6 ATS




    The Independence bowl features a traditional SEC powerhouse vs a big-12 team thats been fighting through a lot of adversity over the last few years. Coach Dan Hawkins came over from Boise and had the buffalos play a bit over their head at times including a huge win over Oklahoma and a big win at texas tech. Nick saban needs no introduction, hes slightly less lovable than herpes, but hes got a big name in the college football world and big things were expected of him when he signed a multi-million dollar contract to coach the Crimson Tide. Bama comes into this game riding a 4 game losing streak that is highlited by a loss, at home, to La-Monroe.

    Alabama
    Bama is typically known for a tough run defense and this year they held to form ranking 34th i the nation vs the rush allowing 3.48 ypc and 128 yards per game. The bama defensive front has been fairly average in getting to the passer posting about 1.90 sacks per contest. This unit is led by 6-4 sr DE wallacegilberry who had 9 sacks on the year and also playe dwell vs the run. the unit, overall, is fairly young and they've got decent speed as a unit. The line figures to hold their own vs an oline that doesnt have a great deal of size in Colorado. The bama pass defensive isnt too bad either. This unit finished 2007 ranked as the #39 overall pass defense (yards per game) in the nation, giving up a little over 212 yards per game through the air against a schedule that ranked 23rd. The bright spot for this secondary was their ability to create some turn overs, bama ended up allowing 17 Tds and equalled that total posting 17 INTs. JR Safety Rashad Johnson proved to be the play maker of this group snatching 6 ints on the year. This Tide defense is a tough group and coach saban takes a lot of pride in his ability to coach defense and particularly the secondary which finished 28th overall in pass efficiency defense.
    On offense the tide really struggled this season. They are led by future first round pick, and former hs all american andre smith who goes 6-4 about 350. I expect smith to have little trouble vs the undersized col front and for bama to go to his side quite a bit. Getting the ball most often will likely be terry grant who started the year strong, but seemed to fade as the year dragged on. Grant is a bit undersized and may be better used as a 3rd down type back on most teams, but bama is thin in the offensive backfield. Grant is a guy that the tide will get into the passing game from time to time, but dont expect more than a few catches and some modest gains from this team that doesnt seem to get much out of their screens. overall the tide rushers take decent care of the ball having only lost 7 fumbles on the season. When the tide choose to throw the ball, bama fans typically close their eyes....then again, John Parker wilson does the same thing, so maybe its just a bama thing? Parker-Wilison finished with a disappointing 15/11 TD/INT ratio and a 54% completion percentage. John found him self ranked the 97th best passer in the country in 2007, just where auburn fans hoped hed be. As a unit the bama passing offense ranked 60th and a large part of their success was 6-3 sr wideout DJ hall who will likely be a first day selection in the 2008 draft. Physically, Hall should look like a man amongst boys in this contest and i expect him to be doubled most of the night. Matt Caddell lines up opposite Hall much of the year but hes simply failed to live up to the expectations he had when he arrived on campus with the 2003 recruiting class. caddell doesnt have great size, but he did show some improvement this season, over last, but he isnt likely to be a big game changer for the tide in this matchup. Bama doesnt do a great job protecting the passer, but i really dont think the col front is much of a threat to get to wilson in this game unless he just holds on to the ball too long.

    Colorado
    The Col defense plays hard, but they arent a group that will 'wow' anyone. The strength of the buffs defense is their run defense where they rank in the top 35 in yards per game despite allowing nearly 4 yards a rush. Jordon Dizon is considered one of the best couple college linebackers in the country and he should be all over the field in this one. The big problem this front 7 lacks is their lack of ability to put any pressure on the Qb without bringing an etra man or two which they really dont like to do. Col only has 19 sacks this year in a conference that is pass happy. JR George Hypolite is their only hope off the edge, the buff will need him to disrupt some plays in the back field and get bama into some long yardage situations. The main problem this defense has faced has been with thier secondary who has allowed teams to pass for an overall rating of 127.96 which leaves this group ranked 70th in the country. This team has been able to force 15 INTs, but they struggle to stop big plays. Col ranks 101rst in the nation in yards per game allowed through the air. Hall should give this group a lot of trouble if wilson is even semi-on in this one. On offense the buffs wont excite anyone a lot either. they rank just below bama in rushing the ball at 150 yards a game and about 3.90 a carry. The thing this offense does have is a studd sr play maker at RB. Hugh charles managed 5.3 ypc and found his way into the endzone 8 times. hes a bit undersized, but he his the hole quickly and he runs hard once hes got his hands on the rock. Charles also put grabbed 27 catches posting nearly 10 yards a grab. he will be the key to the Col offense in this years Independence bowl. At qb, coaches sone, Cody hawkins is a decent player. he doesnt have a gun, but he moves pretty well and he doesnt give up on many plays. he'll make his mistakes, as most freshman do, but he has also shown the ability to lead some huge drives and make some plays in key situations. this isnt a freshman that will be overwhelmed playing an SEC team. The team ranked a modest 56th in and country passing and they finished on a high note smashing the cornhuskers in the 2nd half of their season finally. The best thing this group does is they dont take a lot of plays for a loss. they take what they can get or hawkins will get rid of the ball and live to see another down; the buffalos only allowed 16 sacks on the season.


    special teams:

    punt returns:
    alabama ranks 12th
    colorado ranks 38th
    kick off returns:
    Alabama ranks 63rd
    Colorado ranks 30th
    net punting:
    Alabama ranks 87th
    Colorado ranks 58th
    fgs:
    Alabama (Tiffin):71%
    Colorado (Eberhart): 65%



    Stats of note:

    Alabama: 4.58 penalties a game
    Colorado: 7.00 penalties per game

    Alabama +.33 turnovers per game
    Colorado -.33 turnovers per game

    3rd down conversion offense:
    Alabama: 80th
    Colorado:100th

    3rd down conversion defense:
    Alabama: 62nd
    Colorado:38th

    My pick:

    Alabama -3.5
    Over 51


    (mofome)
    Comment
    • mofome
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 12-19-07
      • 13003

      #3
      finally....gameday.

      Comment
      • CHALKbreaker
        SBR High Roller
        • 12-27-07
        • 115

        #4
        Great write up's Mo!

        I'm all over ASU tonight myself.
        I'm going to play against ALL the Big 12 teams in bowl games, as i think its just a vastly over rated conference, and I don't think a single team will win a bowl game from the big 12 this year. My personal favorite play is WV on the M/L vs Oklahoma.
        Comment
        • mofome
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 12-19-07
          • 13003

          #5
          Originally posted by CHALKbreaker
          Great write up's Mo!

          I'm all over ASU tonight myself.
          I'm going to play against ALL the Big 12 teams in bowl games, as i think its just a vastly over rated conference, and I don't think a single team will win a bowl game from the big 12 this year. My personal favorite play is WV on the M/L vs Oklahoma.


          thanks chalk! glad to see ya posting here! i am not a fan of the big-12 either, but i am leaning towards mizzou over an ark team that has no qb. i hope your wvu pick comes in for ya.

          bol to us tonight.

          Comment
          • 4FUN.AND$$
            SBR Sharp
            • 12-23-06
            • 296

            #6
            Great write ups. Like the Bama pick....
            Comment
            • mofome
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 12-19-07
              • 13003

              #7
              Originally posted by 4FUN.AND$$
              Great write ups. Like the Bama pick....

              thanks man. not a great write up if you ar result oriented tho.



              i, more or les, just like to write games up to share info. i try not to push one way or the other with them. at the end i'll make a pick. asu turned the ball over too many times and they missed out on a few texas fumbles that they really needed to get on. texas was the more talented team and it showed.

              Comment
              • shrax4
                SBR Sharp
                • 11-11-06
                • 399

                #8
                Mo,

                I feel really selfish because I always read your posts but I haven't yet thanked you for it. I did go against you in tonights game but I love the write ups and the info you provide is top notch. I really hope you keep it up and I look forward to reading more.
                Comment
                • mofome
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 12-19-07
                  • 13003

                  #9
                  Originally posted by shrax4
                  Mo,

                  I feel really selfish because I always read your posts but I haven't yet thanked you for it. I did go against you in tonights game but I love the write ups and the info you provide is top notch. I really hope you keep it up and I look forward to reading more.

                  much appreciated my friend!

                  Comment
                  • mofome
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 12-19-07
                    • 13003

                    #10
                    Originally posted by mofome
                    Alabama -3.5 vs Colorado : o/u 51

                    Alabama (6-6)
                    SEC
                    sos: 23
                    2-9 ATS



                    Colorado (6-6)
                    Big-12
                    sos 32
                    6-6 ATS




                    The Independence bowl features a traditional SEC powerhouse vs a big-12 team thats been fighting through a lot of adversity over the last few years. Coach Dan Hawkins came over from Boise and had the buffalos play a bit over their head at times including a huge win over Oklahoma and a big win at texas tech. Nick saban needs no introduction, hes slightly less lovable than herpes, but hes got a big name in the college football world and big things were expected of him when he signed a multi-million dollar contract to coach the Crimson Tide. Bama comes into this game riding a 4 game losing streak that is highlited by a loss, at home, to La-Monroe.

                    Alabama
                    Bama is typically known for a tough run defense and this year they held to form ranking 34th i the nation vs the rush allowing 3.48 ypc and 128 yards per game. The bama defensive front has been fairly average in getting to the passer posting about 1.90 sacks per contest. This unit is led by 6-4 sr DE wallacegilberry who had 9 sacks on the year and also playe dwell vs the run. the unit, overall, is fairly young and they've got decent speed as a unit. The line figures to hold their own vs an oline that doesnt have a great deal of size in Colorado. The bama pass defensive isnt too bad either. This unit finished 2007 ranked as the #39 overall pass defense (yards per game) in the nation, giving up a little over 212 yards per game through the air against a schedule that ranked 23rd. The bright spot for this secondary was their ability to create some turn overs, bama ended up allowing 17 Tds and equalled that total posting 17 INTs. JR Safety Rashad Johnson proved to be the play maker of this group snatching 6 ints on the year. This Tide defense is a tough group and coach saban takes a lot of pride in his ability to coach defense and particularly the secondary which finished 28th overall in pass efficiency defense.
                    On offense the tide really struggled this season. They are led by future first round pick, and former hs all american andre smith who goes 6-4 about 350. I expect smith to have little trouble vs the undersized col front and for bama to go to his side quite a bit. Getting the ball most often will likely be terry grant who started the year strong, but seemed to fade as the year dragged on. Grant is a bit undersized and may be better used as a 3rd down type back on most teams, but bama is thin in the offensive backfield. Grant is a guy that the tide will get into the passing game from time to time, but dont expect more than a few catches and some modest gains from this team that doesnt seem to get much out of their screens. overall the tide rushers take decent care of the ball having only lost 7 fumbles on the season. When the tide choose to throw the ball, bama fans typically close their eyes....then again, John Parker wilson does the same thing, so maybe its just a bama thing? Parker-Wilison finished with a disappointing 15/11 TD/INT ratio and a 54% completion percentage. John found him self ranked the 97th best passer in the country in 2007, just where auburn fans hoped hed be. As a unit the bama passing offense ranked 60th and a large part of their success was 6-3 sr wideout DJ hall who will likely be a first day selection in the 2008 draft. Physically, Hall should look like a man amongst boys in this contest and i expect him to be doubled most of the night. Matt Caddell lines up opposite Hall much of the year but hes simply failed to live up to the expectations he had when he arrived on campus with the 2003 recruiting class. caddell doesnt have great size, but he did show some improvement this season, over last, but he isnt likely to be a big game changer for the tide in this matchup. Bama doesnt do a great job protecting the passer, but i really dont think the col front is much of a threat to get to wilson in this game unless he just holds on to the ball too long.

                    Colorado
                    The Col defense plays hard, but they arent a group that will 'wow' anyone. The strength of the buffs defense is their run defense where they rank in the top 35 in yards per game despite allowing nearly 4 yards a rush. Jordon Dizon is considered one of the best couple college linebackers in the country and he should be all over the field in this one. The big problem this front 7 lacks is their lack of ability to put any pressure on the Qb without bringing an etra man or two which they really dont like to do. Col only has 19 sacks this year in a conference that is pass happy. JR George Hypolite is their only hope off the edge, the buff will need him to disrupt some plays in the back field and get bama into some long yardage situations. The main problem this defense has faced has been with thier secondary who has allowed teams to pass for an overall rating of 127.96 which leaves this group ranked 70th in the country. This team has been able to force 15 INTs, but they struggle to stop big plays. Col ranks 101rst in the nation in yards per game allowed through the air. Hall should give this group a lot of trouble if wilson is even semi-on in this one. On offense the buffs wont excite anyone a lot either. they rank just below bama in rushing the ball at 150 yards a game and about 3.90 a carry. The thing this offense does have is a studd sr play maker at RB. Hugh charles managed 5.3 ypc and found his way into the endzone 8 times. hes a bit undersized, but he his the hole quickly and he runs hard once hes got his hands on the rock. Charles also put grabbed 27 catches posting nearly 10 yards a grab. he will be the key to the Col offense in this years Independence bowl. At qb, coaches sone, Cody hawkins is a decent player. he doesnt have a gun, but he moves pretty well and he doesnt give up on many plays. he'll make his mistakes, as most freshman do, but he has also shown the ability to lead some huge drives and make some plays in key situations. this isnt a freshman that will be overwhelmed playing an SEC team. The team ranked a modest 56th in and country passing and they finished on a high note smashing the cornhuskers in the 2nd half of their season finally. The best thing this group does is they dont take a lot of plays for a loss. they take what they can get or hawkins will get rid of the ball and live to see another down; the buffalos only allowed 16 sacks on the season.


                    special teams:

                    punt returns:
                    alabama ranks 12th
                    colorado ranks 38th
                    kick off returns:
                    Alabama ranks 63rd
                    Colorado ranks 30th
                    net punting:
                    Alabama ranks 87th
                    Colorado ranks 58th
                    fgs:
                    Alabama (Tiffin):71%
                    Colorado (Eberhart): 65%



                    Stats of note:

                    Alabama: 4.58 penalties a game
                    Colorado: 7.00 penalties per game

                    Alabama +.33 turnovers per game
                    Colorado -.33 turnovers per game

                    3rd down conversion offense:
                    Alabama: 80th
                    Colorado:100th

                    3rd down conversion defense:
                    Alabama: 62nd
                    Colorado:38th

                    My pick:

                    Alabama -3.5
                    Over 51


                    (mofome)

                    had to sweat the one out a bit.

                    Comment
                    • BuddyBear
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 08-10-05
                      • 7233

                      #11
                      nice call mofo...it's never easy even when it seems like it is going to be. Looking forward to your analysis the rest of the bowl games and next year....
                      Comment
                      • mofome
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 12-19-07
                        • 13003

                        #12
                        Originally posted by BuddyBear
                        nice call mofo...it's never easy even when it seems like it is going to be. Looking forward to your analysis the rest of the bowl games and next year....


                        ty buddy! ha dto sweat out the total and the side, but they each came in tonight. good way to go into new years eve.

                        Comment
                        SBR Contests
                        Collapse
                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                        Collapse
                        Working...