most important factors in college football

**iwantcougars** · 07-26-10, 10:53 AM

watch all the games you can and do your own homework,, dont believe all that is post it on forums and expert pages

**El Degeneroso** · 07-26-10, 01:24 PM

Ok here are a few I would look at as important to me:

(1) QB play - There are very, very few great QB's in college football, a handful very good ones, numerous competent/decent guys, and a TON of bad/mediocre/unproven guys. Look for a situation where you have a shaky QB against a tough defense. For example, last year Ohio State - USC, 2 unproven shaky QB's against good (at that time) defenses, total came in at 33 on a line of 45. Look for the same in week 1 LSU - North Carolina.

(2) Coaching - Maybe the most important factor in my opinion. Nothing makes or breaks a program like having the right coach. Also look at how a coach has done historically in a situation.

(3) Scoring Defense - Look at last year's top 15 scoring defenses. Almost all of the top teams in the country are in there. I will almost always favor a strong defense over a strong offense. Look at last year Florida - Cincinnati bowl game, but that also speaks to my next point.

(4) Conference Strength - For early season and bowl games, I prefer to have my money on teams from the power conferences (SEC, B12, B10, and P10) when they play teams from the lower conferences.

(5) Not exactly a factor, but I really like the NCAA stats page. Here's the link: NCAA STATS. See what each team's strengths/weaknesses are and how they compare to the opponent.

(6) Also I would try and avoid trying to hit big underdogs on the ML and taking long shot parlays. It's great when (if?) they hit, but really is not worth it in the long run.

**thebestthereis** · 07-26-10, 01:44 PM

learn to drink, or like bars. go to one of the good ones for watching games and see who the "joes" are betting on. bet opposite of them especially on tv games. key is always bet the same amount on any one game cause some will lose. but you can rest assure you'll win more than you lose. good luck!

**kalamity85** · 07-26-10, 02:45 PM

a good sense of public perception is a must!

**BigdaddyQH** · 07-26-10, 03:03 PM

You have to find your own style. This takes time. No not believe in generalities. Here is a perfect example. Someone mentioned last year's USC-Ohio State game. If they thought that Barkley and Pryor were shaky, what did they think when a new QB in McElroy of Alabama went up against a very injury prone and inexperienced Tyrod Taylor of Va.Tech. Both teams were known for their great defenses, so the total is set at 36.5. Final score? 34-24. It works both ways.

Now let's talk about Conference Strengths. The Pac 10 is tought to be a much stronger conference than the MWC, yet their record against the MWC was 1-3-1 ATS vs the MWC last season. The SEC and ACC split 4 games. So much for that idea.

Scoring defense is always a good way to go, but the problem with that is the fact that it takes time to develop those stats. USF's scoring defense was ranked 19th in the nation last season, but they lost 7 starters to greaduation. Will they be as good as last season? Pitt was also ranked 19th, and Rutgers 16th. Did the Big East really have that great of a defensive season, or did the fact that teamslike Louisville (111th in scoring offense), Syracuse (99th in scoring offense) help pad those stats. Oh yes, do not forget the fact that the 8 teams in the Big East played 10 FCS teams, that scored a total of 84 points in their games.

So this is indeed a very individual game that you are seeking to figure out. The three things that goes into successful capping are Fundamentals, Situations, and Technical capping. You need to find the proper formula using all three strategies.

**john2153** · 07-26-10, 04:54 PM

You can catch some teams that are flat coming off a huge win or looking ahead to a big game. For example, Houston defeated Texas Tech last year in a dramatic last second win that moved them to #12 in the polls. The next week they played on the road at lowly UTEP and of course couldn't play with the same intensity that they had the week before vs Texas Tech, and were creamed 58-41. You can find some good plays with scenarios like this.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 07-26-10, 08:27 PM

A huge factor for me is offensive/defensive line strength/play. I'll take a strong line with a weak QB every day of the weak over a good QB with horrible line play...

**Z_Wipf** · 07-26-10, 08:58 PM

QB and offensive/defensive line.

**rk9** · 07-26-10, 09:11 PM

Motivation for that game. Dogs tend to have more to play for at home, in Rivalry games and conference games. It isnt a set rule but worth considering especially when the public is on the other side.

**Flying Dutchman** · 07-26-10, 10:08 PM

Gee, I was thinking folks would post things like: adjusted yards per pass or turnovers.

**stingray14** · 07-26-10, 10:37 PM

Just bet the opposite of Brandon Lang.....

**dbDan** · 07-26-10, 10:37 PM

Thanks guys, interesting points so far.

**jakeandba** · 07-26-10, 11:03 PM

All of the above suggestions are great and they should all be considered when capping games. For me, the season does not begin until the first conference game. The previous games carry less weight and "do not directly effect " conference outcomes. After the first week then i start to eval stats that tell the story of a football team, going week to week. After doing some calulations, then non stats factors come into play, such as revenge, style of play for each team, and such.

What really sucks is unless you have printed out the week to week status, there is no way to find this info. unless someone else has a website that shows that info, for backtesting purposes.

Both my printer and laptops get a work out trying to store all information.

**MJT1212** · 07-27-10, 04:24 PM

Game importance to each team is a biggie.

**dbDan** · 07-27-10, 08:14 PM

Originally posted by jakeandba

All of the above suggestions are great and they should all be considered when capping games. For me, the season does not begin until the first conference game. The previous games carry less weight and "do not directly effect " conference outcomes. After the first week then i start to eval stats that tell the story of a football team, going week to week. After doing some calulations, then non stats factors come into play, such as revenge, style of play for each team, and such.

What really sucks is unless you have printed out the week to week status, there is no way to find this info. unless someone else has a website that shows that info, for backtesting purposes.

Both my printer and laptops get a work out trying to store all information.

Do you not build a db of your data? Or use Excel and build an Excel "db."

By hand is so 90s.

**babyanni** · 07-28-10, 06:14 AM

Originally posted by Z_Wipf

QB and offensive/defensive line.

yep pretty much

**Law-Byrnes** · 07-28-10, 07:52 AM

Originally posted by dbDan

Do you not build a db of your data? Or use Excel and build an Excel "db."

By hand is so 90s.

Sometimes you gotta do things old school.

**jakeandba** · 07-28-10, 09:31 PM

Originally posted by Law-Byrnes

Sometimes you gotta do things old school.

yes since sites do not keep stats from the prior week, they will lump them all into a progressive total. To tell you the truth i bought an old printer some time ago and just started printing off pages. If you like scan them into your computer which might be an idea.

The other benefit is that if you want to back test during the offseason, the information is in front of you and not lost forever.

If you dont want to print off these pages, then copy into a word doc and save..this will allow you to pull up and back test at any time.

One thing to consider is to come up with an idea on what stats are important and fine tune. There is no one stat that is the magic key. Also learn math concepts like standard deviation and how to use them.

No selection is ever 100% but if you can get an edge use it to your advantage. Over the long haul, that is a key to making money.

**SportsPicks3434** · 07-29-10, 01:41 AM

2010-2011 NCAAF Season Thread

The most important factor in factor in wagering and capping NCAAF can be found with my plays in the thread above. It has nothing to do with statistical information for the most part believe it or not. People spend way to much time breaking down matchups, ect.

I have spent alot of years capping the NFL and expecially College Football. NCAAF is my most successfull capped sport and the NFL is my 2nd. The key is to study the game and past matchups with every team...which i have...and finding the most successful angle of wagering. I am not talking about finding a certain capping angle and saying its successfull after 2 years of wagering. A capping angle mjust be backtested for at least 8-10 years to be proven a success and I have done that. BOL to you and please do not spend every day and every night breaking down QB's, defenses and a thousand different stats. It doesnt reqquire all that.....

**SportsPicks3434** · 07-29-10, 01:45 AM

sorry for the spelling errors. Its late here and i am tired.