Nurse Robertas Plays for week 11 in college football
Thursday Night ESPN Game Analysis Which is free on his site.
Condensed the writeups cause thats what I was told I could do.
WEST VIRGINIA (-17) 41 Louisville 21
Louisville's defense has improved since their early season debacles against Middle Tennessee State (42 points and 10.2 yards per play allowed) and Syracuse (38 points and 8.2 yppl), but West Virginia is not likely to be contained by the Cardinals in this game. The Mountaineers have averaged 6.8 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team and I rate Louisville's defense at 0.6 yppl worse than average even after taking into consideration their improvement. The Cardinals do have a good offense that has averaged 6.3 yppl against 8 Division 1A opponents that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team, but West Virginia is very good defensively (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl) and the Mounties actually have a slight advantage in that match-up. My math model favors West Virginia by 17½ points and Thursday night home favorites of 2 points or more on a winning streak (won at least their last 2 games) are 39-16-2 ATS. West Virginia lost at Louisville last season and coach Rich Rodriguez is 9-1 ATS in revenge games, so he'll run it up if he can.
SATURDAY
3 Star Selection
***Air Force (-3.0) 27 NOTRE DAME 14
11:30 AM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
I resisted going against Notre Dame last week in a Best Bet on Navy because I thought perhaps the horrible Irish passing attack would have some success against the nation’s worst pass defense. That was certainly not the case
2 Star Selection
**VIRGINIA TECH (-6.0) 27 Florida St. 13
12:30 PM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Virginia Tech has a history of playing well at home against other good teams, as evidenced by their 37-14-1 ATS record in home games when not favored by more than 14 points. The Hokies are fortunate to be facing Florida State with Drew Weatherford at quarterback instead of Xavier Lee.
2 Star Selection
**SOUTHERN MISS (-15.5) 42 Memphis 18
01:30 PM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Memphis is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation and the Tigers certainly won’t be able to stop the running of Damion Fletcher (990 yards at 5.4 ypr) and quarterback Jeremy Young (6.0 yards per rushing play). Memphis has allowed 5.9 yards per rushing play for the season (against teams that would average 4.6 yprp against an average team) and the Tigers have been especially porous the last 3 weeks since injuries have hit their linebacking corps.
2 Star Selection
**Florida (-6.5) 37 SOUTH CAROLINA 23
04:45 PM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
I’m sure Steve Spurrier would love to beat his old team, but the Gamecocks just aren’t as good as the Gators and Florida applies to a very strong 66-15-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator while South Carolina applies to a negative 22-67-2 ATS situation. Florida’s offense is the best in the nation, averaging 7.0 yards per play against 8 Division 1A opponents that would combine to allow just 5.0 yppl to an average attack.
Strong Opinion
TCU 21 BYU (-7.0) 23
06:00 PM Pacific, 08-Nov-07
TCU has certainly been a disappointment this season, but the Horned Frogs are not easy to beat with a defense that goes from very good to great with star DE Tommy Blake back in the starting lineup.
Strong Opinion
Indiana (-2.0) 33 NORTHWESTERN 26
09:00 AM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Indiana is certainly not a great team, but the Hoosiers are a better than average team and they should be able to beat a sub-par Northwestern team today. Indiana is 0.3 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team), but they have an advantage over a Northwestern defense that has allowed 5.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 5.2 yppl against an average defense.
Strong Opinion
TENNESSEE (pk) 35 Arkansas 30
09:30 AM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Arkansas won for me last week at home against South Carolina but that win sets up the Razorbacks in a very negative 93-185-5 ATS road letdown situation while Tennessee applies to a very good 132-50-6 ATS home momentum situation.
Strong Opinion
MISSISSIPPI ST. 22 Alabama (-4.5) 21
09:30 AM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Mississippi State has already upset Auburn and Kentucky this season on the road and the Bulldogs have had an extra week to prepare for this game against an Alabama team that may be emotionally drained after blowing a lead last week to LSU.
Strong Opinion
TULSA (pk) 41 Houston 35
12:00 PM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Tulsa has been hurt by turnovers this season (-11 in TO margin), which partly explains their 3-6 ATS record. However, the Golden Hurricane are a better team than Houston from the line of scrimmage and should win this game. Tulsa has been fantastic offensively this season, averaging 7.0 yards per play with starting quarterback Paul Smith on the field, against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team.
Condensed the writeups cause thats what I was told I could do.
WEST VIRGINIA (-17) 41 Louisville 21
Louisville's defense has improved since their early season debacles against Middle Tennessee State (42 points and 10.2 yards per play allowed) and Syracuse (38 points and 8.2 yppl), but West Virginia is not likely to be contained by the Cardinals in this game. The Mountaineers have averaged 6.8 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team and I rate Louisville's defense at 0.6 yppl worse than average even after taking into consideration their improvement. The Cardinals do have a good offense that has averaged 6.3 yppl against 8 Division 1A opponents that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team, but West Virginia is very good defensively (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl) and the Mounties actually have a slight advantage in that match-up. My math model favors West Virginia by 17½ points and Thursday night home favorites of 2 points or more on a winning streak (won at least their last 2 games) are 39-16-2 ATS. West Virginia lost at Louisville last season and coach Rich Rodriguez is 9-1 ATS in revenge games, so he'll run it up if he can.
SATURDAY
3 Star Selection
***Air Force (-3.0) 27 NOTRE DAME 14
11:30 AM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
I resisted going against Notre Dame last week in a Best Bet on Navy because I thought perhaps the horrible Irish passing attack would have some success against the nation’s worst pass defense. That was certainly not the case
2 Star Selection
**VIRGINIA TECH (-6.0) 27 Florida St. 13
12:30 PM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Virginia Tech has a history of playing well at home against other good teams, as evidenced by their 37-14-1 ATS record in home games when not favored by more than 14 points. The Hokies are fortunate to be facing Florida State with Drew Weatherford at quarterback instead of Xavier Lee.
2 Star Selection
**SOUTHERN MISS (-15.5) 42 Memphis 18
01:30 PM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Memphis is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation and the Tigers certainly won’t be able to stop the running of Damion Fletcher (990 yards at 5.4 ypr) and quarterback Jeremy Young (6.0 yards per rushing play). Memphis has allowed 5.9 yards per rushing play for the season (against teams that would average 4.6 yprp against an average team) and the Tigers have been especially porous the last 3 weeks since injuries have hit their linebacking corps.
2 Star Selection
**Florida (-6.5) 37 SOUTH CAROLINA 23
04:45 PM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
I’m sure Steve Spurrier would love to beat his old team, but the Gamecocks just aren’t as good as the Gators and Florida applies to a very strong 66-15-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator while South Carolina applies to a negative 22-67-2 ATS situation. Florida’s offense is the best in the nation, averaging 7.0 yards per play against 8 Division 1A opponents that would combine to allow just 5.0 yppl to an average attack.
Strong Opinion
TCU 21 BYU (-7.0) 23
06:00 PM Pacific, 08-Nov-07
TCU has certainly been a disappointment this season, but the Horned Frogs are not easy to beat with a defense that goes from very good to great with star DE Tommy Blake back in the starting lineup.
Strong Opinion
Indiana (-2.0) 33 NORTHWESTERN 26
09:00 AM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Indiana is certainly not a great team, but the Hoosiers are a better than average team and they should be able to beat a sub-par Northwestern team today. Indiana is 0.3 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team), but they have an advantage over a Northwestern defense that has allowed 5.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average just 5.2 yppl against an average defense.
Strong Opinion
TENNESSEE (pk) 35 Arkansas 30
09:30 AM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Arkansas won for me last week at home against South Carolina but that win sets up the Razorbacks in a very negative 93-185-5 ATS road letdown situation while Tennessee applies to a very good 132-50-6 ATS home momentum situation.
Strong Opinion
MISSISSIPPI ST. 22 Alabama (-4.5) 21
09:30 AM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Mississippi State has already upset Auburn and Kentucky this season on the road and the Bulldogs have had an extra week to prepare for this game against an Alabama team that may be emotionally drained after blowing a lead last week to LSU.
Strong Opinion
TULSA (pk) 41 Houston 35
12:00 PM Pacific, 10-Nov-07
Tulsa has been hurt by turnovers this season (-11 in TO margin), which partly explains their 3-6 ATS record. However, the Golden Hurricane are a better team than Houston from the line of scrimmage and should win this game. Tulsa has been fantastic offensively this season, averaging 7.0 yards per play with starting quarterback Paul Smith on the field, against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppl to an average team.
