rjt's Week 11 NCAA Plays

pags11 · 11-05-07, 11:48 PM

good to see we are on a couple together...GL bud...

onlooker · 11-05-07, 11:51 PM

Hey RJT.

Only one I am with you on is New Mexico. I have nothing on the others.

Good luck as always.

Cougar Bait · 11-06-07, 06:46 AM

On Oklahoma St. and have a lean on Northwestern. I'm still not sure about that Wake game. I will be interested to hear your thoughts. Clemson has been destroying people.

rjt721 · 11-07-07, 08:04 PM

pags, looker and BTH - thanks and good luck to each of you this weekend.

2* Oklahoma St. +6: Kansas can definitely play. They’re a perfect 9-0 both SU and 8-0 ATS, but who have they beaten? They don’t have a win against a team currently in the top 50. Their non-conference schedule was a joke, and the win over K-State lost much of its luster after KSU lost last week to Iowa St. Other than that, they’ve beaten a young Colorado team in a tough, competitive game that could’ve gone either way, as well as W’s over both A&M and Nebraska, perhaps the two most disappointing teams in the country. Not to beat up on the Jayhawks – Mangino’s done a great job turning the program around and they should be commended for winning their first 9 games, but their no. 4 ranking in the current BCS standings is ridiculous.

Much has been made of Kansas’ 76-point explosion over Nebraska, and while putting up 76 is no doubt impressive, it came against a terrible Huskers’ defense that hasn’t stopped anyone all season and has completely thrown in the towel after a dreadful year. To me, the most eye-opening aspect of that game was Kansas’ defense, perceived to be the strength of the squad, giving up 39 points and nearly 500 total yards to a Nebraska team with QB Joe Ganz making his first career start in place of the injured Sam Keller.

This weekend will be Kansas’ biggest test thus far – on the road in a primetime game in a hostile environment against the best offense they’ve seen, and also the added burden of being 9-0 with a potential showdown with Missouri looming in the regular season finale. OSU’s offense has put up 500+ yards in each of the past 3 games, and RB Dantrell Savage has evolved into one of the better backs in the country. OSU will put up points, just as they always do at home, and Kansas’ defense has proven to be vulnerable. OSU’s defense, particularly after allowing 24 consecutive pts. to UT in the 4th Q last week, is the concern, but the defense has also been opportunistic, forcing 9 turnovers in the last 3 games. This could be a key in a game where both teams figure to move the ball with ease, and this factor, combined with the home field advantage, as well as a terribly overvalued Kansas team, make this a play. I like OSU to win this game outright and spoil Kansas’ Cinderella season.

2* Wake Forest +8.5: Both teams playing well of late, and this is a game with renewed importance in the ACC following BC’s loss to FSU last week. Wake’s defense has held the opposition under 100 rushing yards in 7/9 games this season, and containing Davis/Spiller and Clemson’s running attack is the key to beating the Tigers, for as good as Cullen Harper’s numbers are, his stats are extremely misleading. Harper’s padded his stats against inferior competition, but in Clemson’s 2 losses, which also happen to be against the 2 best defensive teams the Tigers have played – VT, GT – he’s been far less successful, with 2 TD’s, 3 INT’s and a completion percentage barely over 50%. This is a WF team that’s come a long way since a disappointing start to the season, and a team that is fundamentally sound, which is more than can be said for Clemson, which routinely comes up small in big games. I don’t see a whole lot separating these teams, and I anticipate a close, competitive game throughout.

2* Northwestern +2: Kellen Lewis is really good and James Hardy is even better, but Indiana being a road fav. in conference play over any team not named Minnesota is wrong and undeserved. Northwestern losing at home to Iowa, while Indiana winning at Iowa with relative ease earlier in the season is likely the reason, but, despite the fact this Hoosiers team is improved, it’s still a team that’s won just 2 of its last 23 road games in conference play. Both Indiana and Northwestern jumped out to big leads over Iowa, and although the Hoosiers held on to win, while Northwestern let the Hawkeyes back in the game, that isn’t enough to justify Indiana being a road fav. here against a team that’s very similar. Lewis has been turnover prone, and without much of a running game other than his own scrambling ability, the Hoosiers will have to play error-free to win this game and compensate for a defense that’s been torched in conference play and is now facing one of the better offenses in the Big 11.

2* New Mexico -8.5: I had this line set at -14.5, and apparently one terrible performance is enough to make the Lobos a single digit fav. at home against the worst team in the conference. New Mexico is just in a different class than CSU, and getting a team following a dreadful performance in their prior game is something I always look for. Save for a road win at UNLV, which can largely be attributed to 5 Vegas turnovers, CSU has seldom been competitive in conference play. I rarely lay more than a TD, but New Mexico has playmakers all over the field and this game could get out of hand in a hurry.

CrapsMyWay · 11-07-07, 08:51 PM

I like Northwestern also...Good Luck Everyone!

Boilermaker04 · 11-08-07, 02:52 PM

RJT

Right side on New Mexico big bounce back spot for a team that has talent and just got crushed.

Northwestern wins that Big 11 conference game as well!

BOL RJT

austintx05 · 11-08-07, 05:57 PM

gl rjt...with ya on ok st

rjt721 · 11-09-07, 11:38 PM

Craps, Boiler and austin: thanks guys. Good luck to each of you.

Adding:

2* Michigan -2.5 (-105)

Final card:

2* Oklahoma St. +6
2* Wake Forest +8.5
2* Northwestern +2
2* New Mexico -8.5
2* UM -2.5

Good luck everyone.

imgv94 · 11-09-07, 11:41 PM

I'll be rooting for you buddy.

onlooker · 11-09-07, 11:48 PM

Damn RJT, now I am against you on one. I have Wisconsin +2.5.

Again, good luck Saturday.

theshark · 11-10-07, 10:11 AM

yes a nebraska team which you say have nothing yet they are beating #12 texas 17-9 in the 4th quarter...before you say texas has nothing they beat okla st last week,,,i suggest you go back and think things out here...kansas will roll and i mean big pal....kansas is for real and the people better realize it...theshark

BuddyBear · 11-10-07, 10:37 AM

New Mexico was a play i really liked....i think it cashes for you. Good luck...

bmac · 11-10-07, 12:00 PM

CSU sucks and thats all there is to it.... I got UNM.....

SexyMit · 11-10-07, 03:24 PM

Good call onlooker on Wis +2.5 I had them at plus 3.

SexyMit · 11-10-07, 03:25 PM

I also took New Mexico but I got them at -9 so we can all cheer for them .

onlooker · 11-10-07, 05:15 PM

Originally posted by bmac

CSU sucks and thats all there is to it.... I got UNM.....

I sure wish they would start sucking again. They are keeping this one to close for my comfort.

onlooker · 11-10-07, 05:57 PM

23-23 in New Mexico. Figures CSU would show up it this one.