Indiana (+7½) versus Penn State
Game Time: 10/20/2007 12:00 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com
The first meeting between the two schools since 2004 finds Penn State walking into Indiana's homecoming. Take the points and the Hoosiers Saturday vs. the Nittany Lions.
Penn State has put together two straight impressive wins to move back into the top 25. Both of those victories came at home however, and now the Nittany Lions hit the road once again where they are 0-2 on the season and just 2-5 in their last seven games over the last two seasons.
Making matters even tougher, Penn St. is hosting the Buckeyes at home next Saturday night so there is definitely a look-ahead possibility. The Nittany Lions are 10-0 lifetime against Indiana but the two schools have not played since 2004.
The Hoosiers started the season 5-1 and had some great momentum going until they hit Lansing last Saturday and were annihilated by the Spartans. It was a humbling defeat and one that Indiana can build upon as it looks to become bowl eligible for the first time since 1993. It is homecoming in Bloomington and for all of the bad teams in the past, the Hoosiers have still won three straight homecoming contests. Add to that the game is nationally televised on ESPN and it will be a great home atmosphere.
It will be the same type of atmosphere that the Hoosiers saw against the Spartans as it was homecoming there as well. A year ago you might remember that Indiana was in a very similar situation going into this game. The Hoosiers had five wins with three games left, but they lost all three and fell one victory short of becoming bowl eligible. That experience will help this time around as they are a more focused team and are taking it just one game at a time and not pressing.
Penn St. quarterback Anthony Morelli is coming off one of his best games but he is a completely different quarterback on the road and it shows in clutch time. In five home games, the Nittany Lions are 24-for-25 in red-zone scoring opportunities; in two road games, they’re 6-for-10 with just one touchdown. The Hoosiers will be able to get pressure on the quarterback and that will be a bad situation for Morelli. Indiana leads the nation with 32 sacks, an average of 4.5 per game.
Penn St. did not turn the ball over against Wisconsin, the first time that has happened all season. That changes here however as the major difference in the road losses was the increase in turnovers. Indiana has forced 18 turnovers, the second highest total in the conference and it is third in the Big Ten in turnover margin. The Penn St. defense has been solid but unlike the last two opponents, Indiana can move the ball. Indiana is averaging 411.6 ypg and is third in the Big Ten in scoring at 36.0 ppg.
The last game for Penn St. was another solid one defensively but that is part of a great situation favoring Indiana in this one. Play against any team that is averaging 28 or more ppg and after allowing nine points or less last game going up against a defense that is allowing 21 or more after seven or more games. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being just -0.5 ppg.
The Hoosiers getting a touchdown is more than we will need. Play Indiana for 1½ units.
Free Pick: Indiana +7½ (-110)
Game Time: 10/20/2007 12:00 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | 10starpicks.com
The first meeting between the two schools since 2004 finds Penn State walking into Indiana's homecoming. Take the points and the Hoosiers Saturday vs. the Nittany Lions.
Penn State has put together two straight impressive wins to move back into the top 25. Both of those victories came at home however, and now the Nittany Lions hit the road once again where they are 0-2 on the season and just 2-5 in their last seven games over the last two seasons.
Making matters even tougher, Penn St. is hosting the Buckeyes at home next Saturday night so there is definitely a look-ahead possibility. The Nittany Lions are 10-0 lifetime against Indiana but the two schools have not played since 2004.
The Hoosiers started the season 5-1 and had some great momentum going until they hit Lansing last Saturday and were annihilated by the Spartans. It was a humbling defeat and one that Indiana can build upon as it looks to become bowl eligible for the first time since 1993. It is homecoming in Bloomington and for all of the bad teams in the past, the Hoosiers have still won three straight homecoming contests. Add to that the game is nationally televised on ESPN and it will be a great home atmosphere.
It will be the same type of atmosphere that the Hoosiers saw against the Spartans as it was homecoming there as well. A year ago you might remember that Indiana was in a very similar situation going into this game. The Hoosiers had five wins with three games left, but they lost all three and fell one victory short of becoming bowl eligible. That experience will help this time around as they are a more focused team and are taking it just one game at a time and not pressing.
Penn St. quarterback Anthony Morelli is coming off one of his best games but he is a completely different quarterback on the road and it shows in clutch time. In five home games, the Nittany Lions are 24-for-25 in red-zone scoring opportunities; in two road games, they’re 6-for-10 with just one touchdown. The Hoosiers will be able to get pressure on the quarterback and that will be a bad situation for Morelli. Indiana leads the nation with 32 sacks, an average of 4.5 per game.
Penn St. did not turn the ball over against Wisconsin, the first time that has happened all season. That changes here however as the major difference in the road losses was the increase in turnovers. Indiana has forced 18 turnovers, the second highest total in the conference and it is third in the Big Ten in turnover margin. The Penn St. defense has been solid but unlike the last two opponents, Indiana can move the ball. Indiana is averaging 411.6 ypg and is third in the Big Ten in scoring at 36.0 ppg.
The last game for Penn St. was another solid one defensively but that is part of a great situation favoring Indiana in this one. Play against any team that is averaging 28 or more ppg and after allowing nine points or less last game going up against a defense that is allowing 21 or more after seven or more games. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being just -0.5 ppg.
The Hoosiers getting a touchdown is more than we will need. Play Indiana for 1½ units.
Free Pick: Indiana +7½ (-110)
I also like Indiana on Saturday.
I am on the UNDER 59 in that Northwestern vs Eastern Michigan game.
