Week 8 NCAA Football Picks - The Chart

[nep1293]

Last Weeks Record
Official Picks (13-8 , 61.90%)
All Over 50% Picks (27-25-2 , 51.92%)

Yearly Record
Official Picks (93-69-3 , 57.41%)
All Over 50% Picks (181-163-7 , 52.62%)


Very solid in Week 7. No real monster weeks on the year, but no real bad weeks either. Just keep adding on to the profit every week.


I'm not posting the breakdown by the percentages this week. The numbers don't truly reflect the games as different spreads work their way into different percents. All that matters is the number of games over .500 and that is going up each week.

I also modified my formula slightly. The only numbers affected by the change are games with spreads of 10 or more. The difference is minimal for the most part but I feel he change will make the system stronger.

[nep1293]

WEEK 8 PICKS
South Florida @ Rutgers (+3) ..... 60.72%
Utah @ TCU (-3) ..... 51.97%
Northwestern (-8) @ Eastern Michigan ..... 50.92%
Louisville @ Connecticut (+3) ..... 60.72%
Buffalo (+4.5) @ Syracuse ..... 61.37%
Miami, OH (-7) @ Temple ..... 51.44%
Mississippi St @ West Virginia (-23) ..... 61.40%
Penn St (-8) @ Indiana ..... 50.92%
Central Michigan @ Clemson (-15.5) ..... 55.07%
Northern Illinois @ Wisconsin (-23.5) ..... 61.40%
Arkansas (-6) @ Mississippi ..... 59.17%
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (-13) ..... 53.38%
Wake Forest @ Navy (+3) ..... 60.72%
Army @ Georgia Tech (-25.5) ..... 50.36%
Wyoming (+3.5) @ Air Force ..... 60.82%
Ball St (-1.5) @ Western Michigan ..... 55.05%
Kansas @ Colorado (+4.5) ..... 52.88%
Memphis @ Rice (-1) ..... 50.63%
Tulane @ SMU (-6.5) ..... 59.90%
Nevada (-7) @ Utah St ..... 51.44%
Tennessee (PICK) @ Alabama ..... 62.05%
Texas A&M (+2.5) @ Nebraska ..... 50.37%
Oklahoma (-28.5) @ Iowa St ..... 61.35%
Texas Tech @ Missouri (-3) ..... 51.97%
California (-1.5) @ UCLA ..... 55.05%
USC @ Notre Dame (+20) ..... 56.41%
Miami, FL @ Florida St (-5.5) ..... 56.78%
Oregon @ Washington (+11) ..... 56.35%
Michigan St (+16.5) @ Ohio St ..... 50.30%
Virginia @ Maryland (-5) ..... 56.78%
Bowling Green @ Kent St (-5.5) ..... 56.78%
Tulsa @ UCF (-3) ..... 51.97%
NC St (+4) @ East Carolina ..... 61.37%
Stanford (+10) @ Arizona ..... 52.49%
San Jose St @ Fresno St (-12.5) ..... 52.19%
Houston @ UAB (+13) ..... 50.99%
Florida (-7) @ Kentucky ..... 51.44%
Boise St (-16.5) @ Louisiana Tech ..... 53.41%
Iowa (+7) @ Purdue ..... 50.93%
Ohio (PICK) @ Toledo ..... 62.05%
Texas @ Baylor (+24.5) ..... 64.64%
Kansas St (+3.5) @ Oklahoma St ..... 60.82%
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (+10) ..... 55.80%
Michigan @ Illinois (+3.5) ..... 56.77%
Idaho (+9.5) @ New Mexico St ..... 50.54%
Auburn (+10) @ LSU ..... 52.49%
New Mexico (-7) @ San Diego St ..... 51.44%
Colorado St (+2.5) @ UNLV ..... 50.37%
North Texas (+17.5) @ Troy ..... 51.79%
Arkansas St (+2.5) @ MTSU ..... 50.37%
Florida Atlantic (-6.5) @ Louisiana-Lafayette ..... 59.17%
Florida International @ Louisiana-Monroe (-12.5) ..... 52.19%
Southern Mississippi @ Marshall (+4) ..... 52.88%

[nep1293]

Chart Survivor

These are the remaining unbeaten teams if you bet all their games according to the chart. I don't know if these mean anything for future results. I just think it is kinda cool

Florida Atlantic (6-0)
Kent St (6-0)
Clemson (5-0)
NC St (5-0)
New Mexico (5-0)
Memphis (3-0-2)


Here are the remaining winless teams

Ball St (0-6)
Rutgers (0-5)
Southern Mississippi (0-5)


Strangely enough most of the above teams are plays this week.

[BuddyBear]

wow...i almost agree with every single one of the bolded plays.

[puttn4par]

What Program is This????

WEEK 8 PICKS
South Florida @ Rutgers (+3) ..... 60.72%
Utah @ TCU (-3) ..... 51.97%
Northwestern (-8) @ Eastern Michigan ..... 50.92%
Louisville @ Connecticut (+3) ..... 60.72%
Buffalo (+4.5) @ Syracuse ..... 61.37%
Miami, OH (-7) @ Temple ..... 51.44%
Mississippi St @ West Virginia (-23) ..... 61.40%
Penn St (-8) @ Indiana ..... 50.92%
Central Michigan @ Clemson (-15.5) ..... 55.07%
Northern Illinois @ Wisconsin (-23.5) ..... 61.40%
Arkansas (-6) @ Mississippi ..... 59.17%
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (-13) ..... 53.38%
Wake Forest @ Navy (+3) ..... 60.72%
Army @ Georgia Tech (-25.5) ..... 50.36%
Wyoming (+3.5) @ Air Force ..... 60.82%
Ball St (-1.5) @ Western Michigan ..... 55.05%
Kansas @ Colorado (+4.5) ..... 52.88%
Memphis @ Rice (-1) ..... 50.63%
Tulane @ SMU (-6.5) ..... 59.90%
Nevada (-7) @ Utah St ..... 51.44%
Tennessee (PICK) @ Alabama ..... 62.05%
Texas A&M (+2.5) @ Nebraska ..... 50.37%
Oklahoma (-28.5) @ Iowa St ..... 61.35%
Texas Tech @ Missouri (-3) ..... 51.97%
California @ UCLA .....
USC @ Notre Dame (+20) ..... 56.41%
Miami, FL @ Florida St (-5.5) ..... 56.78%
Oregon @ Washington (+11) ..... 56.35%
Michigan St (+16.5) @ Ohio St ..... 50.30%
Virginia @ Maryland (-5) ..... 56.78%
Bowling Green @ Kent St (-5.5) ..... 56.78%
Tulsa @ UCF (-3) ..... 51.97%
NC St (+4) @ East Carolina ..... 61.37%
Stanford (+10) @ Arizona ..... 52.49%
San Jose St @ Fresno St (-12.5) ..... 52.19%
Houston @ UAB (+13) ..... 50.99%
Florida (-7) @ Kentucky ..... 51.44%
Boise St (-16.5) @ Louisiana Tech ..... 53.41%
Iowa (+7) @ Purdue ..... 50.93%
Ohio (PICK) @ Toledo ..... 62.05%
Texas @ Baylor (+24.5) ..... 64.64%
Kansas St (+3.5) @ Oklahoma St ..... 60.82%
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (+10) ..... 55.80%
Michigan @ Illinois (+3.5) ..... 56.77%
Idaho (+9.5) @ New Mexico St ..... 50.54%
Auburn (+10) @ LSU ..... 52.49%
New Mexico (-7) @ San Diego St ..... 51.44%
Colorado St (+2.5) @ UNLV ..... 50.37%
North Texas (+17.5) @ Troy ..... 51.79%
Arkansas St (+2.5) @ MTSU ..... 50.37%
Florida Atlantic (-6.5) @ Louisiana-Lafayette ..... 59.17%
Florida International @ Louisiana-Monroe (-12.5) ..... 52.19%
Southern Mississippi @ Marshall (+4) ..... 52.88%

Just curious what program gave you those Number??

[austintx05]

good luck this week Tom

[nep1293]

wow...i almost agree with every single one of the bolded plays.

Glad to hear it BuddyBear, maybe you have a little chart in you after all

I like all the picks except Arkansas and NC St. Gotta ride with what got me here though.

Just curious what program gave you those Number??

This is my own system. Check out the posts from all the previous weeks to catch up on what it's all about. In a nutshell, I use the opening lines and record the outcomes based on those lines.

[taurus]

Some there I like and some there I don't like. I guess that is what happens when you play some sort of system. What really matters is the overall win % , particularly for a bettor like me who bets the same amount every game.
I'm no where near your win percentage , so you have to be up to something here.Nice going and keep up the good work.

[tblues2005]

I have to give you credit nep you have done a pretty good job at this and nice going on this, it has seemed to work pretty well overall.

[ntgarrett]

Thanks for doing all that work....one more piece of information when capping a game!

[nep1293]

When I first started messing around with this system there would be games each week where I'd use my own analysis to override the chart. I was usually wrong. It's taken me a while but now I've pretty much trained my brain to not have an opinion and to just agree with everything the numbers tell me.

I've also noticed that I've been able to predict the lines a lot better this year knowing what The Chart would tell me about the games .



I appreciate the support from you guys, I don't know how many of you are playing my picks but it's nice to know there are others who are interested in following my progress. hopefully the success will continue through the rest of the year. Sadly there are only 7 weeks left of NCAA.

Thanks guys, and good luck

[puttn4par]

Keep up the good Work!!!

[ws1975]

I like the Illinois pick

[LT Profits]

nep,

Regarding your official record (93-69-3, 57.4%), is there any way you could break that record down between favorites and underdogs? My gut feeling is that the dog record would be pretty amazing.

Thanks.

[nep1293]

nep,

Regarding your official record (93-69-3, 57.4%), is there any way you could break that record down between favorites and underdogs? My gut feeling is that the dog record would be pretty amazing.

Thanks.

The dog record has been great. The Favorites started out strong but have been brought down the last few weeks.

Home Favorites (46-46)
Road Favorites (17-11)
Home Dogs (7-5)
Road Dogs (23-7)

[LT Profits]

So 30-12, 71.4%.

Who needs chalk?

Thanks nep, GREAT WORK!

[nep1293]

So 30-12, 71.4%.

Who needs chalk?

Thanks nep, GREAT WORK!

Yeah it really makes me think twice about playing the faves The dog plays haven't even been close, most of them have been easy winners. I'll take a look at all of this in the offseason, try to find out some things for next year.

[taurus]

nep - please read and answer

Here are two games you list
NC State +4 @ ECU 61.37%
Stanford +10 @ Arizona 52.49%
It is clear with NC State in bold that I attribute the 61% to the Wolfpack. Correct ?
What about the Stanford -Arizona game? To which team do I apply the 52% ? And how do I know which team the % applies to in all the games you list that have no Bold designation ?
p.s. I did go over your original Thread and couldn't find the answer to my question.
Thanks for your time and thanks for posting this most interesting system. I am by no means averse to playing alot of games.
GL

[nep1293]

Here are two games you list
NC State +4 @ ECU 61.37%
Stanford +10 @ Arizona 52.49%
It is clear with NC State in bold that I attribute the 61% to the Wolfpack. Correct ?
What about the Stanford -Arizona game? To which team do I apply the 52% ? And how do I know which team the % applies to in all the games you list that have no Bold designation ?
p.s. I did go over your original Thread and couldn't find the answer to my question.
Thanks for your time and thanks for posting this most interesting system. I am by no means averse to playing alot of games.
GL

Which ever team has the points listed is the pick. The percentage then applies to that particular team. So Stanford +10 is pick, it just isn't strong enough to play for me just based on the system

[bmac]

You have most of my picks bolded.... I hope the chart works big this week.
the only one I will be agaisn't you on is Missouri.
BOL with the chart.

[nep1293]

You have most of my picks bolded.... I hope the chart works big this week.
the only one I will be agaisn't you on is Missouri.
BOL with the chart.

Missouri is the pick according to the chart, it just isn't at the 55% plateau. Those are the only ones I can recommend and feel confident. As you can tell from the numbers the 55% and above numbers are outperforming the 50%-54% plays by a good margin.

[bmac]

I see that. Thanks for clarifying

[taurus]

thanks nep GL

[Teasem]

With the small dog factor here, looks like the chart wants me to lay it on Rutgers tonight

Good work nep, GL this week

[ralquis]

can you post all of the percentages for each line.....ex -1, -1.5, -2....home and away?
It seems like there would be a progression but I cant tell from the detailed picks..thanks!
BTW...congrats on finding a sustem that don't lose!

[nep1293]

can you post all of the percentages for each line.....ex -1, -1.5, -2....home and away?
It seems like there would be a progression but I cant tell from the detailed picks..thanks!
BTW...congrats on finding a sustem that don't lose!

Lets not get ahead of oursleves with that "doesn't lose" comment. I'm not ready to unleash my savings on these games quite yet

[nep1293]

This should be what you wanted. I lump the half points with the main point so there is no bridge except for 3.5 and 7.5 which are key numbers. The percents are in relation to the underdogs.

Once you get into the 30+ point spreads the percents aren't as strong as they would appear due to lack of data


HOME--SPREAD--AWAY
37.95% -PICK-
44.95% -1- 49.37%
50.12% -2- 50.37%
60.27% -3- 48.03%
56.77% -3.5- 60.82%
52.88% -4- 61.37%
53.99% -5- 43.22%
40.83% -6- 40.10%
48.56% -7- 50.93%
61.26% -7.5- 41.78%
49.08% -8- 50.06%
47.57% -9- 50.54%
55.80% -10- 52.49%
56.35% -11- 50.95%
53.20% -12- 47.81%
50.99% -13- 46.62%
50.56% -14- 45.35%
49.80% -15- 44.93%
46.59% -16- 50.30%
45.96% -17- 51.79%
48.34% -18- 49.66%
53.53% -19- 48.37%
56.41% -20- 47.65%
55.77% -21- 47.32%
56.77% -22- 41.59%
64.05% -23- 38.60%
64.64% -24- 43.13%
54.58% -25- 49.64%
39.41% -26- 58.32%
31.88% -27- 55.15%
38.65% -28- 42.80%
45.22% -29- 38.14%
52.55% -30- 46.78%
63.33% -31- 58.21%
53.97% -32- 64.22%
0.00% -33- 56.44%
20.00% -34- 49.92%
54.76% -35- 46.30%
51.02% -36- 43.64%
55.56% -37- 44.05%
100.00% -38- 43.63%
74.36% -39- 45.62%
64.91% -40- 37.32%
74.36% -41- 27.19%
100.00% -42- 37.21%

[ralquis]

thanks!

[nep1293]

With the small dog factor here, looks like the chart wants me to lay it on Rutgers tonight

Good work nep, GL this week

I didn't want to jinx this game at all so i waited til it was over to respond. With the Rutgers win, Home +3 is now 8-0 on the year, and Home +3 to +4.5 is now 20-3-1 on the year. By far the best group of numbers for the chart this season.

The numbers looks good for Connecticut, Navy, Colorado, Illinois, and Marshall this weekend. We'll see if it holds up.

[Teasem]

I didn't want to jinx this game at all so i waited til it was over to respond. With the Rutgers win, Home +3 is now 8-0 on the year, and Home +3 to +4.5 is now 20-3-1 on the year. By far the best group of numbers for the chart this season.

The numbers looks good for Connecticut, Navy, Colorado, Illinois, and Marshall this weekend. We'll see if it holds up.

I can understand waiting; I was waiting on Florida to kick a FG at the end for OT.........didn't happen and I'm happy now

Those numbers are quite incredible; Rutgers was a play for me tonight based on several systems and # crunches, as well as probabilities based on past opponents for each team

I'm on Conn tomorrow as well as Navy this weekend, so we'll see, till then

[onlooker]

Wisconsin, Florida State, and Kent State.

[hhsilver]

NW -EMU is at Detroit, a neutral site. Or are you considering this a home game for EMU. I thought you didn't include neutral games.

[nep1293]

NW -EMU is at Detroit, a neutral site. Or are you considering this a home game for EMU. I thought you didn't include neutral games.

I just noticed this yesterday, It seems to me like it's more of a home game in a bigger stadium than an actual neutral site game. Ypsilanti is only 35 miles away from Detroit. Evanston is 300 miles away.... seems like Eastern Michigan is the home team to me. I'd probably pay a little more attention to this if I was playing the game. Thanks for the heads up though

[dfinn21]

Hey nep....great system and thanks for the excel file. I love what you've got going here. I was wondering if you could post the overall records (not winning%) of each percent for 2007 through the first 7 weeks. Thanks a gl this week.

[nep1293]

Hey nep....great system and thanks for the excel file. I love what you've got going here. I was wondering if you could post the overall records (not winning%) of each percent for 2007 through the first 7 weeks. Thanks a gl this week.

Here ya go. I really wouldn't put too much emphasis on these, All that matters is 55% and above doing well. I'm considering bumping the minimum up to 56% for the future. I might just wait for next year though

W L NA
50% 13 23
51% 27 30
52% 23 21 2
53% 10 11 2
54% 18 15
55% 13 14 1
56% 12 8
57% 17 9
58% 17 8 1
59% 15 6
60% 10 6 1
61% 6 8
62% 0 1
63% 0 2
64% 0 1