rjt's Week 7 NCAA Plays

[rjt721]

Sides: 13-12-2, +.74
Totals: 7-6, -.02
ML: 2-3, -.5
YTD: 22-21-2, +.22

The last four weeks have been terrible for me. Had a couple tough beats that have hurt, but no excuses, I've sucked. Miraculously, still up a few pennies for the year. Hoping to turn things around this weekend. Pretty busy this week, so I have no time to write up any of these games at the moment. If I have time later in the week, I'll add some thoughts on these.

3* Oklahoma -9
2* Kentucky +11.5
2* BC -13.5
1.5* Michigan -5
1.5* Wake Forest +6
1.5* Nebraska -4
1.5* Ole Miss +7.5

Iowa + will be a play, just going to wait it out a bit and let the Illini backers drive up the price. Will likely throw in a total or 2 later in the week, but for the most part my card is complete.

Good luck everyone.

[Razz]

GL, I'm basically on the same page, would have played Kentucky if I could have gotten that number (though it is scary as hell that LSU could play as bad as possible, LaFell and David appear to rig the game, and LSU still win last week), but 9 isn't enough for me.

Love OU and Nebraska at those deflated lines - but I can understand those lines at least. What is the deal with the Michigan line? I mean, for me, Michigan is about as good as OSU, and they're laying less at home than OSU was on the road AFTER OSU DOMINATED PURDUE? I rarely feel this confused by a line, but I made this 10.5.

See you in the LCS.

[imgv94]

I thought for sure the Michigan line was going to be -7.5..
Surprised by the low number they threw out there too.

[rjt721]

See you in the LCS.

Hope so. I said after the Yanks lost the first 2 games that they'd force a game 5, and given how dominant Pettitte looked and how shaky Sabathia was in game 1, you'd have to like NYY's chances. I think Wedge is making a mistake not bringing Sabathia back on 3 days rest tomorrow. Byrd v. Wang? How can you not like the Yanks tomorrow? I actually won tickets to game 7 of the ALCS through a lottery on the Sox website (like a .2% chance of winning), so I'm hoping Yanks/Sox goes 7.

As for the UM line, I had it at 8, so -5 seems pretty low to me as well. Seems UM is still being undervalued based on their first 2 games, but in my eyes they're still as good as anyone in the Big 11. Purdue's offense doesn't present the same challenges of App. St. and Oregon, and as they showed in manhandling PSU's offense, they can still match up with conference foes. Manningham will be back, Hart's on a mission to win out and return to the Rose Bowl, Henne's healthy and Purdue's defense is as soft as ever. Tiller can't beat UM, and this Saturday will be more of the same.

[pags11]

GL to you this week rtj...

[Wassymac]

GL, I'm basically on the same page, would have played Kentucky if I could have gotten that number (though it is scary as hell that LSU could play as bad as possible, LaFell and David appear to rig the game, and LSU still win last week), but 9 isn't enough for me.

Love OU and Nebraska at those deflated lines - but I can understand those lines at least. What is the deal with the Michigan line? I mean, for me, Michigan is about as good as OSU, and they're laying less at home than OSU was on the road AFTER OSU DOMINATED PURDUE? I rarely feel this confused by a line, but I made this 10.5.

See you in the LCS.

Add to that...

- the fact that Purdue hasn't won in the Big House in 40 years
- Painter single handedly cost Purdue backers any shot at a cover last week. It's becoming clear he just can't handle a big game as he gets too amped up and overthrows ball after ball. I think it gets worse after he hears about it all week long. I really though he turned things around this year but could not have been more wrong.
- OK the punter helped out as well...25 yard punts in the big house after a Painter 3 & out will kill Purdue.
- Spack likes to see if teams like OSU & Michigan can score on his base defense before bringing any pressure so you'll get a TD or 2 cushion to start the game. OSU only scored 9 points in the final 50 minutes after Spack decided to be a coach.
- The under is likely a great play here IMO if you look at the points scored by a Painter led team against teams like Wisky & Penn State last year.

[dave11486]

Michigan number is right. Nothing about them is even close to OSU, and I'm tired of hearing about it. So, apparently the difference between the two is being clearly overlooked which is defense and Michigan has none. So with that being said Purdue wins SU this week.

I like most of your plays rjt, but I just had to get that out there about your boys. Things need to change in Ann Arbor for your sake. GL this weekend.

[Wolfpack]

Good luck to you this weekend. Hope you do well.

[sirwinzalot]

I had this line at Michigan -4. I seem to have a knack at projecting most lines, unfortunately it hasn't made me any money this year. As I am currently in the hole a little. Maybe I am on the wrong side of the counter. Hopefully this ship will turn around. I like Purdue here as I think they will give Michigan fits, but I would like more points.

[sirwinzalot]

I had Iowa at +2.5 Anyone that thought Iowa would be getting 7 is smoking crack. There is nothing fishy about this line. This line is on, and I think at 3.5 there is a half point of value with Iowa. For Illini backers, Iowa has one of the biggest homefield advantages in the country. Do you trust this young Illini team to go on the road into a hostile environment and win by 4 or more. I don't.

[Doc JS]

I had Iowa at +2.5 Anyone that thought Iowa would be getting 7 is smoking crack. There is nothing fishy about this line. This line is on, and I think at 3.5 there is a half point of value with Iowa. For Illini backers, Iowa has one of the biggest homefield advantages in the country. Do you trust this young Illini team to go on the road into a hostile environment and win by 4 or more. I don't.

The Illini QB's health would be a question I would have before deciding which way to bet this game.

If he's healthy, I think Ill. will score some points. And Iowa isn't exactly an offensive machine.

[rjt721]

Michigan number is right. Nothing about them is even close to OSU, and I'm tired of hearing about it. So, apparently the difference between the two is being clearly overlooked which is defense and Michigan has none. So with that being said Purdue wins SU this week.

I like most of your plays rjt, but I just had to get that out there about your boys. Things need to change in Ann Arbor for your sake. GL this weekend.

I agree with you that OSU's defense is much better than UM's. That's not even up for debate. However, I don't think OSU possesses the type of weapons offensively to expose the UM defense like, say, Oregon did. On the other side of the ball, in comparison with the Buckeyes' offense, UM has a distinct advantage in virtually every area. OSU's defense was pretty solid much of the way last year, and UM put up 39 with nearly the same offensive personnel they have this season.

I guess we'll find out Nov. 17. Good luck this weekend.

I had Iowa at +2.5 Anyone that thought Iowa would be getting 7 is smoking crack. There is nothing fishy about this line.

Agreed. I don't understand how anyone can justify Illinois being a 7 pt. road fave. This is a pretty good Illini team, but people are getting a bit carried away after the last two games, especially considering they would have lost the PSU game if Morelli wasn't completely inept, and they just gave up over 500 yards to Wisky.

[rjt721]

Adding:

1.5* Iowa +3.5 (-103)
1.5* GT/Miami UNDER 43
.5* UCF ML +425

3* Oklahoma -9: Give me Bob Stoops at home -9 over Gary Pinkel with anything resembling a comparable team and I'll probably bite. Give me a Bob Stoops coached team at home as a single digit fave and a significantly better team and I'm definitely on it. I like Chase Daniel and this Missouri squad. They'll put up points on anyone in the country, including OU, but this is still a team that doesn't play any defense, and I don't see them going into Norman and being competitive for a full 60 min. against a Sooners squad with a renewed chance of getting to the Nat'l Champ. game after all the upsets the last two weeks. Most of the focus will be on Mizzou's 4th-ranked offense against the Sooners' defense, but how are the Tigers, the nation's 104th-ranked pass defense and 71st-ranked run defense stopping OU's offense? They won't. For as good as Chase Daniel and this Tigers' offense is, OU's offense is nearly as potent. The difference is, the Sooners actually plays defense.

2* Kentucky +11.5: LSU just won a huge game against UF, and the Tigers remaining schedule looks promising leading up to the SEC title game and a potential spot in the Nat'l Champ. game, but they'll be tested this weekend. I was impressed with how easily Kentucky moved the ball against a pretty good S.C. defense last week, and although LSU's defense is much better, no one's been able to stop Woodson, Rafael Little and co. yet, and I think the Wildcats will do enough offensively to keep this one tight throughout. Matt Flynn's been a bit shaky, Jacob Hester's not a big-play back, and with Doucet returning from injury, an opportunistic Cats' defense should be able to play well enough at home to keep the game competitive.

2* BC -13.5: Great, ND finally won a game, beating a terrible UCLA team. Sure, BC's ranking is too high, but this team is very good, by far the best offense ND has faced this season. I don't like to compare common opponents in most cases, but the fact the Irish could only muster 122 total yards at home against GT's defense, while Matt Ryan and the Eagles put up 527 yards on the road against the same defense, is a pretty good indicator of the discrepancy between these two teams. I think ND will need to score at least 20 to have a chance of covering, and being that they've only managed 5 offensive TD's in 6 games (2 of which were with Sharpley playing QB), and the fact Weis insists on starting the wrong QB, I think that's unlikely.

1.5* Michigan -5: UM probably would have been a 2 TD fave had this line been set 2 months ago. Obviously the loss to App. St., followed by the embarrassing loss to Oregon is the primary reason for this number, but UM heads into this game in pretty good shape. The defense is improving, and whereas the Buckeyes' defense dominated Purdue's offense last week, UM's offense, lead by a determined Mike Hart, a healthy Chad Henne, and the return of Mario Manningham after missing last week's game (for smoking weed .... gotta love college), will do the same to a vulnerable Purdue defense.

1.5* Wake Forest +6: The magic appears to be gone from last year's Cinderella WFU team, but Riley Skinner's now fully healthy, FSU can't score offensively, and the nationally televised Thursday start may be just what WFU needs to try to recapture some of last year's magic. The Demon Deacons have 8 returning offensive starters from a team that went into Tallahassee and destroyed the Noles, 30-0, so to be getting 6 in this spot is pretty generous.

1.5* Nebraska -4: Good spot for the Huskers to get right and try to salvage their season against a terrible road team that plays even less defense than they do. As bad as Nebraska's defense has been, it pales in comparison to OSU's problems on the defensive side. Everyone scores on the Cowboys, who allowed over 200 yards passing last week to vertically-challenged A&M.

1.5* Ole Miss +7.5: Bama's having problems on both sides of the ball right now, not a good sign headed into a road game in the SEC. John Parker Wilson has no confidence right now, he can't get DJ Hall the ball, Terry Grant's banged up, and the defense is allowing too many big plays, and I'll take the 7.5 and the home field, where the Rebels gave UF all they could handle last month.

1.5* Iowa +3.5 (-103): Huge letdown spot for the Illini following the program's two biggest wins in several years, as well as a lookahead spot with Michigan coming to Champaign next week. Illinois' improvement this season is impressive, but this is still a young and flawed team. Juice still hasn't proven he be an effective passer, and the Illini running attack fits pretty well into Iowa's strength - stopping the run. In a year where not much separates the top from the bottom in the Big 11 (except Minnesota), the wrong team is favored in this game. I like this Illinois team, but even in defeating a woefully overrated Wisconsin team last week, they allowed over 500 total yards to a pretty one-dimensional offense. The week before, they won a close game over a mediocre PSU team, a game the Nittany Lions win if Morelli even remotely resembled a college QB. Iowa's not nearly as bad as their record would indicate (they damn near went into Madison and beat Wisky three weeks ago), and I have a hard time believing a Kirk Ferentz coached team will start 0-4 in conference play, particularly in a year with so much parity from top to bottom in the Big 11.

Final card:

3* Oklahoma -9
2* Kentucky +11.5
2* BC -13.5
1.5* Michigan -5
1.5* Wake +6
1.5* Nebraska -4
1.5* Ole Miss +7.5
1.5* Iowa +3.5 (-103)
1.5* GT/Miami UNDER 43
.5* UCF ML +425

[imgv94]

Like your card bro. You should have a good week.

[pags11]

funny, last I checked Missouri's D ain't so bad, and OU doesn't seem to be putting up 50 points a week anymore...guess we just see things differently...

[onlooker]

Hey RJT. Good to see your on Nebraska -4, because I will be on them as well.

Good luck with your plays.

[bigboydan]

I'm with you on KY and Iowa this week RJT.



Can I grab your thoughts on the ECU/UTEP game please? I was actually liking ECU in this spot myself.

[rjt721]

funny, last I checked Missouri's D ain't so bad, and OU doesn't seem to be putting up 50 points a week anymore...guess we just see things differently...

I think Missouri's defense has improved a bit from last season, but it's still pretty poor IMO. I can't see the Tigers' D slowing down Murray and Patrick in the least. This is a defense that gave up 226 yards on the ground to Green-Ellis at Ole Miss, a very ordinary back who hasn't come close to matching that production in any other game. I think this will open things up for Bradford and the passing game, and I would attribute OU's decline in production the last two weeks more to their opponents, as I think Colorado and UT are vastly superior defensively than Mizzou.

Guess we'll just agree to disagree on this one. I wish you luck with the rest of your plays, pags.

Hey RJT. Good to see your on Nebraska -4, because I will be on them as well.

Good luck with your plays.

Thanks looker. Good luck to you as well.

Can I grab your thoughts on the ECU/UTEP game please? I was actually liking ECU in this spot myself.

+3 isn't enough to spark my interest. ECU sure looked impressive in the 2nd half last week, dismantling a pretty good UCF team. I don't think there's much separating the top teams in Conference USA, and being that UTEP's at home, a FG isn't enough for me between what I see as two pretty evenly matched teams.

Good luck BBD.

[strictlywinners]

Hate to say it but im against you on many of your plays. I hate oklahoma play also not sure about your nebraska play. You should be alright with kentucky. Best of luck

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

I had Iowa at +2.5 Anyone that thought Iowa would be getting 7 is smoking crack. There is nothing fishy about this line. This line is on, and I think at 3.5 there is a half point of value with Iowa. For Illini backers, Iowa has one of the biggest homefield advantages in the country. Do you trust this young Illini team to go on the road into a hostile environment and win by 4 or more. I don't.

Yes, I certainly do trust this Illinois team that is coached by Zook to go on the road and to win by 4 or more! I'm gonna stick by what I have said since Sunday about this game... Illinois stuck it to Indiana @ IU... IU beat the fvck out of Iowa @ Iowa 38-20! Iowa got punked on last week by a beaten down Penn State team 27-7... Yeah Illinois played Penn State @ home, but they layed it to the Nittany Lions! For sure it's a let down spot, but this team has a great shot of playing in the Rose Bowl now! Do you think Zook is not gonna remind them of that and how they are ranked #18 in the country now?! If Iowa decides not to show up for the 3rd week in a row, the Illini will beat them by 20+!

RJT- Like all of your plays except this Illinois/Iowa game we have been talking about all week... Really just don't think this Hawkeyes squad is any good... One of us is gonna win though, so BOL with every play except that game!

[Razz]

Hope Iowa, OU, and Neb don't let me down like the Yankees did. Good luck against Cleveland (I don't believe I'm saying this), I don't care who wins.

[pags11]

Green-Ellis is far from an ordinary back...you try playing on a team with no QB, no line and no playmakers and see how you do...Oklahoma has had CU and Texas score on them in the last two weeks, I don't see them continually stopping the Missouri offense in this one...I'm a bit concerned about Murray's big play ability, but Patrick hasn't run very well the last couple of weeks...Bradford, while talented, is still a freshman...heavy edge in the QB department to Missouri...it's a game that on Saturday evening 10 points may seem like a lot more to cover than it seemed like on Monday morning (when most OU bettors were talking blowout)...yes, we will have to agree to disagree...GL rjt...

[bbyhill]

oklahoma at home with big win over texas big boost knowing they can win the big 12

[ws1975]

Sides: 13-12-2, +.74
Totals: 7-6, -.02
ML: 2-3, -.5
YTD: 22-21-2, +.22

The last four weeks have been terrible for me. Had a couple tough beats that have hurt, but no excuses, I've sucked. Miraculously, still up a few pennies for the year. Hoping to turn things around this weekend. Pretty busy this week, so I have no time to write up any of these games at the moment. If I have time later in the week, I'll add some thoughts on these.

3* Oklahoma -9
2* Kentucky +11.5
2* BC -13.5
1.5* Michigan -5
1.5* Wake Forest +6
1.5* Nebraska -4
1.5* Ole Miss +7.5

Iowa + will be a play, just going to wait it out a bit and let the Illini backers drive up the price. Will likely throw in a total or 2 later in the week, but for the most part my card is complete.

Good luck everyone.

I like the Oklahoma and Kentucky picks

[onlooker]

Can I grab your thoughts on the ECU/UTEP game please? I was actually liking ECU in this spot myself.

For what it is worth, I will be on UTEP -3. I should of jumped on it when it was -1.5, but think they will win by 7 or more.

[austintx05]

with ya on Iowa....gl

[bmac]

Iowa and KU lookin good

[rjt721]

Adding 1 more:

1* Wisky/PSU UNDER 45 (-105)

Good luck everyone.

[austintx05]

Yes, I certainly do trust this Illinois team that is coached by Zook to go on the road and to win by 4 or more! I'm gonna stick by what I have said since Sunday about this game... Illinois stuck it to Indiana @ IU... IU beat the fvck out of Iowa @ Iowa 38-20! Iowa got punked on last week by a beaten down Penn State team 27-7... Yeah Illinois played Penn State @ home, but they layed it to the Nittany Lions! For sure it's a let down spot, but this team has a great shot of playing in the Rose Bowl now! Do you think Zook is not gonna remind them of that and how they are ranked #18 in the country now?! If Iowa decides not to show up for the 3rd week in a row, the Illini will beat them by 20+!

You might win your Illinois bet. But what Illinois did to Indiana to what Indiana did to Iowa has no relevance in the Illinois/Iowa game. Iowa has a stingy run defense and if they stop Mendenhall it will be a long day for Illinois. If this game comes down to coaching you will see why Zook gets ridiculed.

GL on your bet

[austintx05]

Yes, I certainly do trust this Illinois team that is coached by Zook to go on the road and to win by 4 or more! I'm gonna stick by what I have said since Sunday about this game... Illinois stuck it to Indiana @ IU... IU beat the fvck out of Iowa @ Iowa 38-20! Iowa got punked on last week by a beaten down Penn State team 27-7... Yeah Illinois played Penn State @ home, but they layed it to the Nittany Lions! For sure it's a let down spot, but this team has a great shot of playing in the Rose Bowl now! Do you think Zook is not gonna remind them of that and how they are ranked #18 in the country now?! If Iowa decides not to show up for the 3rd week in a row, the Illini will beat them by 20+!

RJT- Like all of your plays except this Illinois/Iowa game we have been talking about all week... Really just don't think this Hawkeyes squad is any good... One of us is gonna win though, so BOL with every play except that game!

[rjt721]

7-3-1, +8.15

YTD: 29-24-3, +8.37

BC missed extra point came back to bite me, but still a nice day.

[onlooker]

Good job RJT.

I fell hard in the morning games, and never could recover on my late slate. That UTEP game just put a good topper on my day.