BBD, IMG, pags, Onlooker, Razz, rjt, P2m and other old-schoolers

bigboydan · 10-05-07, 02:54 PM

What book are you using currently Baba? The reason I ask this is because of the vig factor?

Razz · 10-05-07, 03:05 PM

While I think that Texas either wins or gets blown out - meaning option C is interesting (option D is silly IMO) - I feel that would be a poor decision because of the potential disastrous, if unlikely, consequences. A 7-point OU win would leave you distraught on so many levels.

So, for me, it's between A and B. I virtually never buy back on a play unless it crosses multiple critical numbers. I think holding OU -10.5 (-108) and, say, Texas +12.5 (-110) has a negative expectation. If the line rises to 13.5 or 14 - which I think is a distant possibility actually - then you couldn't be blamed for buying some back on Texas + the points.

But it's really a decision you have to make, depending on your feel for the game, how much a 4* play is as compared to the rest of your plays, whether you want to reconsider given your role as a fan, etc.

babaoriley · 10-05-07, 03:34 PM

bbd, 2 books... 1 of which you'd consider a top-notch book, the other which is rated a D or something on here. For whatever reason, I don't like flashing what books I have specific wagers on...

Razz- thanks for the input. I don't see that line rising to 13.5 or 14 simply because it opens up the possibility that so many people will attempt to buy out and try a middle (and owning 11-14 covers a TON of possibilities):
35-24 is a possible score that I could see middling 11 (and then any derivation of that: 28-17, 31-20, 42-31, etc...)

When you bring in 13-14 you have a TON of possibilities and I would definitely attempt to middle. My problem is: I see OU scoring 28 minimum. The only way UT hangs with them is by catching virtually every break possible. In that case, I think UT outscores OU (and OU's 28) in which case option D becomes a little less "silly".

babaoriley · 10-05-07, 03:46 PM

P.S. I'm also tailing pags on every play (as I did the last 3-4 weeks with one or two exceptions where I couldn't get a line that was close to his) for 2 units per play. To tell you the truth, option E would be me dumping 4 more units on OU -12 (-105). This Texas team isn't very good, and while I hate betting against my team, I feel I know this team intimately (not like that, guys). I used to live with Ricky Williams' best friend and had the Heisman on my mantle while Rick was transitioning to N.O (we also had his Rott, also named Heisman, at my place). I shit ye not. I've been friends with many of the UT players over the years and I still talk to a few of them on occasion. This game reeks of potential blowout to me, though if UT keeps it close, I can see them pulling out a victory, because they will have caught ALL the breaks.

imgv94 · 10-05-07, 04:09 PM

I wouldn't try middling a number like eleven.

I'd middle 3,7,maybe 10,14,17,maybe 21.

But not 11.

If it were me I'd stand pat.

If anything put a 1/2 unit on Texas ML and a 1/2 unit on Texas +12

Good Luck on whatever you decide.

Willie Bee · 10-05-07, 05:36 PM

Being a weenie about the middling deal, I'd wait to see if you could get it to creep up another half to 12½. Like GV said, good luck whatever you decide Baba

rjt721 · 10-05-07, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by babaoriley

I can see OU winning by 30+ with ease

Originally posted by babaoriley

I truly don't see any sceanrio in which UT keeps this close

Based on these statements and your comments in the "Red River shootout bloodbath" thread, it's obvious you have a strong opinion on OU. Based on that, it's clear you don't think the game will be competitive, therefore the game following on 11 or 12 is extremely unlikely. I understand it's difficult betting against your team (we've all been there), but unless your opinion on the game has changed, I wouldn't recommend trying to middle, and certainly not for the 4-units you put on OU -10.5.

I see the line has moved to 12.5 at some shops (not sure what it's at your book), so that would give you 11 and 12 as middling possibilities. If you want to try and middle, I'd say put a small play on UT +12.5, maybe 1/2 unit or so.

A 1-unit play on the UT ML, combined with the Horns actually winning the game would give you the best of both worlds - you'd have made the same profit as had OU covered, and you'd have the added satisfaction of your team winning the game outright. However, this is only worthwhile if you legitimately feel UT can win the game and you think there's value with the +400 or so. Only you can answer that question.

I'd suggest just standing pat with your initial wager, or making a small play on UT+ for the middling possibility. For what it's worth, I agree with you that the Sooners win big.

Good luck.

pags11 · 10-05-07, 06:12 PM

if the line gets to 13.5 I might think about middling it, otherwise stick with your bet...

onlooker · 10-05-07, 06:18 PM

Ride out your original bet, I think is the best way to go.

Like RJT pointed out, you already think the Sooners are going to win big, so trying to middle wouldn't be the way to go.

Oklahoma wins 35-10.

babaoriley · 10-06-07, 12:01 PM

Well, it's at 13.5 now... I'm highly considering middling, but I'm waiting to see if it creeps to 14 (highly unlikely, but with 2 and a half hours left before kickoff, it's possible...

babaoriley · 10-06-07, 02:25 PM

Stuck with original bet (FYI) and even added 1/2 unit on adjusted line of OU -20 (+210). Also threw a half unit on UT ML (+400) for shits and grins. And so it begins...

BuddyBear · 10-06-07, 09:55 PM

I know you've lost bets before and will lose in the future just like me...but what has to sting about this bet is betting against your team and then losing. I can't tell you how many times that has happened where i bet against my team only to have them come through...

austintx05 · 10-06-07, 11:29 PM

horns

babaoriley · 10-07-07, 04:44 PM

Yep, that pretty much sucked. Thankfully, tailing pags' plays gave me a cushion. If Charles doesn't fumble inside the 4, maybe the UT ML would have come through. UT would have been up 7... Oh well, this team kills me in so many ways...