Week 5 plays from BuddyBear

austintx05 · 10-03-07, 10:24 AM

gl buddy...hook 'em!

onlooker · 10-03-07, 01:21 PM

I am only on one of those BuddyBear. I will be along side you on LSU -8.5, but watching/waiting to see if I can get a lower number.

Good luck on them all.

EBone · 10-03-07, 04:41 PM

BB, not on or against you in any thus far.

I do have some leans though. Explain yourself on Texas, Fla International and LSU. I tend to concur on LSU but would be on the other side in Oklahoma and Troy.

If the logic for Texas is, "rivalry game, take the underdog", I am certainly sympathetic to that cause. However, I think Oklahoma is pretty doggone good. I have to admit that I didn't see a lot of the Okla/Colo game but that just screamed "look ahead" to me when I saw the final. For 3 quarters, Oklahoma had a pretty comfortable lead from what I recall.

I really need to hear an explanation on Florida International. If the numbers I have are correct, I'm showing FIU scoring 6 points per game while giving up 42 points per game. Troy always seems, at least to me, that they beat the teams they are supposed to beat. You pulled some magic with ULL last week so I'll be waiting with lots of interest on your write up for Fla International.

I wish you the best of luck this week.

E

BuddyBear · 10-03-07, 05:45 PM

Originally posted by EBone

BB, not on or against you in any thus far.

I do have some leans though. Explain yourself on Texas, Fla International and LSU. I tend to concur on LSU but would be on the other side in Oklahoma and Troy.

If the logic for Texas is, "rivalry game, take the underdog", I am certainly sympathetic to that cause. However, I think Oklahoma is pretty doggone good. I have to admit that I didn't see a lot of the Okla/Colo game but that just screamed "look ahead" to me when I saw the final. For 3 quarters, Oklahoma had a pretty comfortable lead from what I recall.

I really need to hear an explanation on Florida International. If the numbers I have are correct, I'm showing FIU scoring 6 points per game while giving up 42 points per game. Troy always seems, at least to me, that they beat the teams they are supposed to beat. You pulled some magic with ULL last week so I'll be waiting with lots of interest on your write up for Fla International.

I wish you the best of luck this week.

E

You know me pretty well by now Ebone, I am more a quantitative/technical handicapper who blends my "feel" for the games when making my selections . I am more interested in numbers/trends/systems and base many plays on that and the OU/TX game falls into that.

I agree whole heartedly that Oklahoma is much better than Texas this year. For Texas to lose outright at home to KSU by 20 is a bit eye opening. I read some reports of the game and I guess KSU did not dominate them as much as the score would indicate and with McCoy suffering some sort of injury Texas was unable to come back.

For OU, they played tough and it was a war and in the end CU beat them fair and square...no cheap call (like in Eugene) or penalties or whatever. OU falls into a really horrible system this week that plays against teams that were 20+ pt favorites who lost outright. They have a horrible ATS in the following week. My feel for this game is mostly that yes it is a rivalry and yes Texas has had the better of it, but OU's early season dominance serves only to inflate this line. Sorry but dismantling North Texas, Utah State, Tulsa, and pulling away late from Miami (FL) do not constitue a dominan team in my opinion and probably one who should not be leaying DD on a neutral site with an inexperienced QB at the helm.

For FIU, it is simple. As far as my records go back (up to the 2000 season) Troy is 15-32 SU on the road and has won only 1 game on the road in that time span by 19+ points (although I dont have their 2000 sechedule available). Additionaly believe it or not, Troy ranks dead last, #119, in the country in defending the run. FIU features a spread oriented offense and has a very talented QB (I forget his name.. Younger I think ????). True, FIU ranks very badly in many offensive categories but is somewhat misleading since they have already played: @Penn State, Maryland, @Miami, @Kansas, & @MTSU. The MTSU is the most mystifying b/c they got down so quickly they had to abandon the run and eventually just gave up in that game. You generally want to fade teams that struggle in stopping the run especially when they are on the road laying points. They are a very bad bet ATS. FIU has the added bonus of playing at home, in a somwhat competive series (3 previous meetings AVG: FIU 12 Troy 21.66) in a game against the defending Sun Belt champs after a miserable performence against MTSU I think FIU will be playing with a renewed enthusiasm even if Troy is the more talented team. But FIU is not very good and does have the potential to be blown out but I am going to take my chances with the Golden Panthers as a big home dog.

For LSU there is not too much to comment on here other than this one of my feel games. They have the #1 defense in the country (170 yd ppg) and while UF features a very strong defense of their own, I feel that coupled with the inexpereince of their defensive unit (only 2 returning starters), an inexperienced qb, a night game in Baton Rouge, a conference game featuring double revenge (i.e. a team that lost outright as a fav last year) I feel it is going to be very hard for UF to win this game. Teams that win the game outright cover at a very high rate. LSU has already shown in their games against VT and SC that they can blow people out real quick...and if anything both those teams have stronger defenses. Moreover, Florida holding on to barely beat OleMiss as 23 pt favorites (winning by 6) and losing outright as a 17 pt favorite at home no less is not encouraging and speaks more to them being slightly overrated even though that is more the stigma that comes with winning that national championship. Florida has a pretty good offense and if they can move the ball, control the line of scrimmage, burn clock and keep the LSU defense on the field then they will probably cover and win the game outright. If they can't do that, I suspect LSU will win and cover.

Good luck Ebone....

Sam Rothstein · 10-03-07, 08:16 PM

Buddy, what's your reasoning on the UTEP/Tulsa game. I did a write up on this game in my post. Maybe you wouldn't mind replying to both threads?

I am on board w/ you on LSU, and am still on the fence about the Troy/FIU game. You did make some interesting points on that game that I was unaware of. ty

pags11 · 10-03-07, 09:15 PM

while I completely disagree with your analysis of the LSU game, I do wish you luck on that game as well as the rest of your plays this week...GL buddy...

BuddyBear · 10-04-07, 12:23 AM

Originally posted by Sam Rothstein

Buddy, what's your reasoning on the UTEP/Tulsa game. I did a write up on this game in my post. Maybe you wouldn't mind replying to both threads?

I am on board w/ you on LSU, and am still on the fence about the Troy/FIU game. You did make some interesting points on that game that I was unaware of. ty

I think the wrong team is favored here personally. Tulsa and UTEP rate about the same when it comes to the power ratings and I would probably make it PK or Tulsa -1 on a neutral field. That being the case, Tulsa features a very strong offense that can score in a hurry. Both teams are able to run the ball very well with UTEP being slightly better. UTEP's pass defense is not very good but that is mostly a function of facing some very good passing QBs (Ghram Harrel, Chase Holbrook, Justin Willis). However, the running defense is considerably better than that of Tulsa's.

For me, teams that can not stop the run are major bet against teams when they are laying points on the road. Tulsa is allowing 200+ yds per game on the ground and 5.1 per rush attempt but UTEP is allowing 149.8 yds per game on the ground for an average of 4.3 yd per rush. UTEP is 36th in the nation in rushing yds per game. Keep in mind that UTEP is very much dependent on their running game since they have a lot of inexperience at the QB position....the running game becomes that much more important for them. If Price sticks to the game plan then we should see a lot of running from UTEP which means ball control, field position, and shortning of the game which favors the dog.

So consider that Tulsa's run defense is attrocious, consider that UTEP has an above average ground game....compound that all with a team playing at home in a conference rivalry game with some revenge and I believe you have a UTEP win.

Good luck Sam....

Sam Rothstein · 10-04-07, 09:07 AM

Thanks for the reply and you make some very good points. I'm definitely gonna have to look a little deeper into this game.
g'luck this week buddy

BatemanPatrickl · 10-04-07, 10:38 AM

Good luck Double B.

bmac · 10-04-07, 01:23 PM

Good luck this week BB

bigboydan · 10-04-07, 02:15 PM

I'm rolling with you on Texas in this game double B.

BOL with your entire slate.

swifty · 10-04-07, 02:21 PM

What I think

Ummm... didn't this happen last year? Didn't Florida lose to Auburn and slay LSU? I know, I know, some Gators are missing, but so is JaMarcus Russell. In fact, Russell is the reason I love Florida in this matchup. Well, not Russell; more like his absence. I don't like Matt Flynn one bit. This is the third game this week where we're getting points with the superior quarterback. Tim Tebow will lead his Gators to victory in Baton Rouge.

Prediction:
Florida 27, LSU 17
Florida +8.5 (4 Units - Double Money Pick)

Good luck this week BB

EBone · 10-04-07, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

You know me pretty well by now Ebone, I am more a quantitative/technical handicapper who blends my "feel" for the games when making my selections . I am more interested in numbers/trends/systems and base many plays on that and the OU/TX game falls into that.

I agree whole heartedly that Oklahoma is much better than Texas this year. For Texas to lose outright at home to KSU by 20 is a bit eye opening. I read some reports of the game and I guess KSU did not dominate them as much as the score would indicate and with McCoy suffering some sort of injury Texas was unable to come back.

For OU, they played tough and it was a war and in the end CU beat them fair and square...no cheap call (like in Eugene) or penalties or whatever. OU falls into a really horrible system this week that plays against teams that were 20+ pt favorites who lost outright. They have a horrible ATS in the following week. My feel for this game is mostly that yes it is a rivalry and yes Texas has had the better of it, but OU's early season dominance serves only to inflate this line. Sorry but dismantling North Texas, Utah State, Tulsa, and pulling away late from Miami (FL) do not constitue a dominan team in my opinion and probably one who should not be leaying DD on a neutral site with an inexperienced QB at the helm.

For FIU, it is simple. As far as my records go back (up to the 2000 season) Troy is 15-32 SU on the road and has won only 1 game on the road in that time span by 19+ points (although I dont have their 2000 sechedule available). Additionaly believe it or not, Troy ranks dead last, #119, in the country in defending the run. FIU features a spread oriented offense and has a very talented QB (I forget his name.. Younger I think ????). True, FIU ranks very badly in many offensive categories but is somewhat misleading since they have already played: @Penn State, Maryland, @Miami, @Kansas, & @MTSU. The MTSU is the most mystifying b/c they got down so quickly they had to abandon the run and eventually just gave up in that game. You generally want to fade teams that struggle in stopping the run especially when they are on the road laying points. They are a very bad bet ATS. FIU has the added bonus of playing at home, in a somwhat competive series (3 previous meetings AVG: FIU 12 Troy 21.66) in a game against the defending Sun Belt champs after a miserable performence against MTSU I think FIU will be playing with a renewed enthusiasm even if Troy is the more talented team. But FIU is not very good and does have the potential to be blown out but I am going to take my chances with the Golden Panthers as a big home dog.

For LSU there is not too much to comment on here other than this one of my feel games. They have the #1 defense in the country (170 yd ppg) and while UF features a very strong defense of their own, I feel that coupled with the inexpereince of their defensive unit (only 2 returning starters), an inexperienced qb, a night game in Baton Rouge, a conference game featuring double revenge (i.e. a team that lost outright as a fav last year) I feel it is going to be very hard for UF to win this game. Teams that win the game outright cover at a very high rate. LSU has already shown in their games against VT and SC that they can blow people out real quick...and if anything both those teams have stronger defenses. Moreover, Florida holding on to barely beat OleMiss as 23 pt favorites (winning by 6) and losing outright as a 17 pt favorite at home no less is not encouraging and speaks more to them being slightly overrated even though that is more the stigma that comes with winning that national championship. Florida has a pretty good offense and if they can move the ball, control the line of scrimmage, burn clock and keep the LSU defense on the field then they will probably cover and win the game outright. If they can't do that, I suspect LSU will win and cover.

Good luck Ebone....

FIU is an interesting take, BB. I was actually thinking Troy but I'll probably not play it now. FIU's competition has certainly been tough. I'll probably pass now but will be rooting your FIU boys on.

I just don't know about Texas. They seem real uninspired to me. It seems like, since Vince Young left, they are back to their underacheiving ways. However, there is no doubt that this is a game that they should be ready to play. No question. I seem to recall a thread on here about this time last year or 2 years ago where we were talking about how Mack Brown cant beat OU. My thoughts are this: if it's equal talent and equal motivation, I think you gotta take Stoops over Brown. But it is 11 points we're talking about. Maybe Texas slides in with the cover but I just can't envision them winning this game. Feel free to come back and bash me when Texas wins 48-3 this weekend.

My two cents......I wish you luck, sir.

E

BuddyBear · 10-04-07, 04:41 PM

Originally posted by swifty

What I think

Ummm... didn't this happen last year? Didn't Florida lose to Auburn and slay LSU? I know, I know, some Gators are missing, but so is JaMarcus Russell. In fact, Russell is the reason I love Florida in this matchup. Well, not Russell; more like his absence. I don't like Matt Flynn one bit. This is the third game this week where we're getting points with the superior quarterback. Tim Tebow will lead his Gators to victory in Baton Rouge.

Prediction:
Florida 27, LSU 17
Florida +8.5 (4 Units - Double Money Pick)

Good luck this week BB

To be fair, I think you being from FL may be influencing your interpretation of that game

But to respond to your comment, true the situation is nearly identical but remember, in that game, FLA was basically a PKem in what was perceived to be an even game and on the road. This time though they were at home, laying 18 pts, to an Auburn team that has underachieved so far. So while the situation is similar in one respect (scheduling, outcome, etc...) much is different as LSU is now the better team and features the much better defense. True Tebow may be the more talented QB but remember, him and Flynn have roughly the same level of experience and so far in Tebow's one road start at a mediocre OleMiss team, UF was lucky to escape failing to cover the -23 and only winning by 6 in that game.

Also, remember in that game last year, LSU really outplayed and out FDed them but committed 5 turnovers. I'll concede that if LSU commites 5 turnovers they are unlikely to cover but that was a different UF team.

I could be wrong but I will be excited to watch this game win or lose! Thanks for your comments Swifty....

BuddyBear · 10-04-07, 04:43 PM

Originally posted by EBone

FIU is an interesting take, BB. I was actually thinking Troy but I'll probably not play it now. FIU's competition has certainly been tough. I'll probably pass now but will be rooting your FIU boys on.

I just don't know about Texas. They seem real uninspired to me. It seems like, since Vince Young left, they are back to their underacheiving ways. However, there is no doubt that this is a game that they should be ready to play. No question. I seem to recall a thread on here about this time last year or 2 years ago where we were talking about how Mack Brown cant beat OU. My thoughts are this: if it's equal talent and equal motivation, I think you gotta take Stoops over Brown. But it is 11 points we're talking about. Maybe Texas slides in with the cover but I just can't envision them winning this game. Feel free to come back and bash me when Texas wins 48-3 this weekend.

My two cents......I wish you luck, sir.

E

Thanks. If you feel Troy is a strong play then go for it...I don't want to dissuade you. Trust me, I know FIU is a horrible team and very suscpetible to being blowout but I see a much closer game here then what many may be expecting.

As for UT, well I think OU is more talented but this a pretty big rivalry and I mentioned that UT falls into a nice system that plays on teams whose opponents lost outright at 20+ favorite. The trend is gold....it does not always hit (see Louisville last week) but it has a large enough sample and a solid theoretical foundation behind it. Hope it hold up!

Good luck....

BuddyBear · 10-04-07, 05:55 PM

Not sure whether I should be relieved or worried that Dr. Bob is against me on 3 plays....

EBone · 10-04-07, 06:46 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

Thanks. If you feel Troy is a strong play then go for it...I don't want to dissuade you. Trust me, I know FIU is a horrible team and very suscpetible to being blowout but I see a much closer game here then what many may be expecting.

As for UT, well I think OU is more talented but this a pretty big rivalry and I mentioned that UT falls into a nice system that plays on teams whose opponents lost outright at 20+ favorite. The trend is gold....it does not always hit (see Louisville last week) but it has a large enough sample and a solid theoretical foundation behind it. Hope it hold up!

Good luck....

BB, I don't think Troy is that strong. I was on the bubble as to make it a play or not. Big road favs are not my favorite play in the world anyway. It was just a lean on Troy.

Good luck to you this weekend with FIU.

E

nevadaside · 10-07-07, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

319 Northwestern +14.5
354 Texas +11
384 LSU -8.5
387 Notre Dame +20.5
392 UTEP +3
400 UL-Monroe +3
404 Florida-International +19[/B]

Best of luck to everyone this weekend!

EXCELLENCE......

austintx05 · 10-07-07, 02:47 PM

great job buddy

buddy>dr corncob

pags11 · 10-07-07, 03:56 PM

buddy,

excellent job this week my friend...keep up the good work...

pokernut9999 · 10-07-07, 06:03 PM

Great job there Buddy !!!!

BuddyBear · 10-07-07, 11:04 PM

Guys thanks a lot for the nice comments. It was certainly a great week and I can only hope for more. I am starting to hit my stride and increasing my unit size this past week couldn't have come at a better time. That 2-7 start of the season seems like a long time ago now.....looking to make big gains the next month and finish off the season strong.

I look forward to and appreciate all the good discussion throughout the week that I have with many of you on here about the games.

Good luck to everyone the rest of the way!