A couple early shady lines

strictlywinners · 10-02-07, 10:10 AM

East Carolina +3.5 dont know how i missed this the first time this might be my favorite play of all.
TAKE EAST CAROLINA WITH THE POINTS AGAINST CENTRAL FLORIDA

forex · 10-02-07, 12:01 PM

Originally posted by strictlywinners

Marshall +2.5 this team is terrible playing a memphis team that played very well on the road against arkansas state.
MARSHALL WINS STRAIT UP BUT TAKE THEM WITH THE POINTS

Illonois -2.5 yes thats right illonois is favored against wisconsin. I dont care where the game is being played or how improved illonois is, they should never be favored in this game. Wait for all of the suckers to take wisconsin so the line will drop then hammer illonois.
ILLONOIS TO WIN GAME HOPEFULLYH LINE WILL DROP TO AROUND A POINT OR PICK EM.

Wyoming -3 they are another terrible team that has no buisness be favored in any game. In the past Wyoming has been a good home team but tcu is much better. Again wait for suckers to take tcu so the line will drop.
WYOMING WINS THE GAME EASY

Oklahoma -11 i dont know how this is even possible this is a huge rivalry game and both teams are coming off of a loss. The fact that a road team is favored by double digits in this game makes me think that something is up. Look for Oklahoma is win by 20
OKLAHOMA TO WIN FOR THOSE OF YOU THAT ARENT AFRAID OF BIG MONEYLINES I WOULD TAKE THEM STRAIT UP.

LSU - 8.5 Probably the game that decides not only the SEC champion but possibly the national championship. I know home field advantage is worth 4 points but still feel that line is a lil high for such a big game.
LSU TO WIN AND TO COVER. AGAIN FOR THOSE THAT ARENT AFRAID OF BIG MONEYLINES JUST TAKE THEM TO WIN

Is it just me or do your first 3 picks make no sense at all? Sounds like you are contradicting each side

MJFtheGenius · 10-02-07, 12:05 PM

No your not the only one, i got confuesed too reading this

ritehook · 10-02-07, 12:06 PM

Originally posted by forex

Is it just me or do your first 3 picks make no sense at all? Sounds like you are contradicting each side

No, what he's doing is betting against so-called "trap lines."

Those are lines that look like the other side should be "a lock."
As in, wow, look at whose the underdog in this game, i'm callin' my bookie.

But if the line is truly a trap the original "sure loser" will end up the winner. This kind of gaming has dedicated adherents.
Maybe for good reason

MJFtheGenius · 10-02-07, 12:32 PM

Ok I got it

strictlywinners · 10-02-07, 01:13 PM

Thank u Rite. These games are the spreads that seem to good to be true. I read in here someone that said if you believe the odds makers dont know more then you do then you shouldn't be gambling. I take a different stand on that issue. I believe the odds makers know allot more then we do and thats why they are making lines for the games and we are posting in forums.
Trap lines do not always work because the odds makers do make mistakes and the public does win sometimes. But this week is not gonna be one of those times these games go atleast 4-2.

hhsilver · 10-02-07, 01:22 PM

interesting - i'd like to keep this thread alive so we remember to come back to it after the games.

about Memphis - they may be more "terrible" than Marshall. They blew a 31-6 halftime lead and lost the 2nd half 29 -0 to Ark St. Their only win came against a weak 1AA team. Marshall actually led WVU after 3 Q before getting blown away. They lost to a 1AA team, but New H is strong. Some might question how Memphis could be favored and that the "trap" is the opposite of what you say.

Other than that, I like what you are saying about the other games. Lets see how it plays out.

thanks for the write ups.

rjt721 · 10-02-07, 01:25 PM

Originally posted by strictlywinners

Illonois -2.5 yes thats right illonois is favored against wisconsin. I dont care where the game is being played or how improved illonois is, they should never be favored in this game. Wait for all of the suckers to take wisconsin so the line will drop then hammer illonois.
ILLONOIS TO WIN GAME HOPEFULLYH LINE WILL DROP TO AROUND A POINT OR PICK EM.

Have you seen these two teams play? The correct team is favored.

Originally posted by strictlywinners

Oklahoma -11 i dont know how this is even possible this is a huge rivalry game and both teams are coming off of a loss. The fact that a road team is favored by double digits in this game makes me think that something is up. Look for Oklahoma is win by 20
OKLAHOMA TO WIN FOR THOSE OF YOU THAT ARENT AFRAID OF BIG MONEYLINES I WOULD TAKE THEM STRAIT UP.

Not a true road game for OU.

strictlywinners · 10-02-07, 01:29 PM

i have seen wisconsin and illonois play and they are both terrible. But wisconsin has the history behind them start a poll and who the majority of people will take. Even if the game was a pick em. i still feel majority would go to wisconsin

As for Oklahoma game i understand that it is not a true road game. But they lost to an absolutely horrible team last week. Colorado is one of the worst teams ive seen. At least texas lost to a solid kansas state team. I thought the line on the game should be around 7 and when im off by 4 points that is allot and more often then not the odds makers make better odds then i do

BatemanPatrickl · 10-02-07, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by strictlywinners

i have seen wisconsin and illonois play and they are both terrible. But wisconsin has the history behind them start a poll and who the majority of people will take. Even if the game was a pick em. i still feel majority would go to wisconsin

As for Oklahoma game i understand that it is not a true road game. But they lost to an absolutely horrible team last week. Colorado is one of the worst teams ive seen. At least texas lost to a solid kansas state team. I thought the line on the game should be around 7 and when im off by 4 points that is allot and more often then not the odds makers make better odds then i do

Strictlywinners you strictly pick winners and proved that by lasting 48 hours in the MLB section. Still want to challenge LT Profits to a capping contest?

Welcome back Strictlywinners and keep strictly picking winners

strictlywinners · 10-02-07, 01:47 PM

Well I was on full tilt when i was posting in the baseball section. I was taking everything on the board everyday. On any givin day i would have around 35000 dollars riding. You and I both know you cant win like that but by that time the disease had takin over. Any true gambler knows this disease that I am speaking of its that little voice that craves more and more action. You constently keep coming up with new systems and line analysis to try to outsmart the odds makers. I dropped 20000 on baseball so i took a nice long break. It was nice to get away from the stress and action for a little while. So far i have only made one play this football season and it was FALCONS moneyline last week i hit for 10000 to win 12000. I will be taking all games i have posted in here for 1000 and i will let everyone know when a falcons type pick comes along again. But those type of games only show up a couple times a season

rjt721 · 10-02-07, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by strictlywinners

i have seen wisconsin and illonois play and they are both terrible.

Originally posted by strictlywinners

Even if the game was a pick em. i still feel majority would go to wisconsin

Game opened a pk and the Illini were almost immediately bet to -3.

Originally posted by strictlywinners

Colorado is one of the worst teams ive seen.

If that's the case you don't watch much football. Colorado is far from a terrible team.

Originally posted by strictlywinners

As for Oklahoma game i understand that it is not a true road game. But they lost to an absolutely horrible team last week.

Surely you realize that one game is almost never indicative of the outcome of the next game? And Colorado, particularly playing at home, is capable of beating any team in the country.

strictlywinners · 10-02-07, 02:02 PM

Colorado capable of beating any team in the country. That is the most ridiculous statement i have ever heard. Did you see what happened when they played FSU obviously not. Oklahoma's defense is terrible so the CU QB was able to do a few things. Also Oklahoma was probably looking ahead to there big game with TEXAS

MJFtheGenius · 10-02-07, 02:08 PM

Colorado is bad, idk how they beat oklahoma, I saw that FSU game and their offense is terrible.

strictlywinners · 10-02-07, 02:16 PM

oh yea rjt. Also im sure you know this already but just because a line goes up does not mean that is what the public or the majority is taking. For the most part bookies want the public to be split 50 50 that way they assume no risk and just collect juice. But that is only one reason for line movement. Before the public ever gets to see the line the intial lines are released to true sharps legends in the gaming industry and they help the odds makers adjust the line to what it should be. My friend is an agent for beteagle and has over 1000 people beneath him he told me rite now the money is 2 to 1 on wisconsin. Now with the money being so lopsided you would think that the line would readjust and be moving down. But its not this tells me that the bookies arent laying off to other books and that they are will to bet that illonois is going to win. Anythng thats good enough for the books to take is good enough for me to take

rjt721 · 10-02-07, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by strictlywinners

Colorado capable of beating any team in the country. That is the most ridiculous statement i have ever heard.

I'm not saying they would/will beat any team in the country, but of course they're capable of beating anyone. They pretty much reinforced that belief by beating Oklahoma on Sat. OU being in a prime lookahead spot with the UT game upcoming was certainly a factor, but under the right circumstances, Colorado is fully capable of beating any team in the country.

Originally posted by strictlywinners

Did you see what happened when they played FSU obviously not.

Yeah, I did. Not a shock at all that Hawkins, making only his third career start, struggled against FSU's defense.

Originally posted by strictlywinners

Oklahoma's defense is terrible so the CU QB was able to do a few things.

OU's defense isn't terrible at all. Probably the biggest reason OU lost was Bradford throwing 2 INT's in the second half and putting the Sooners' defense in difficult positions.

Originally posted by strictlywinners

oh yea rjt. Also im sure you know this already but just because a line goes up does not mean that is what the public or the majority is taking. For the most part bookies want the public to be split 50 50 that way they assume no risk and just collect juice. But that is only one reason for line movement. Before the public ever gets to see the line the intial lines are released to true sharps legends in the gaming industry and they help the odds makers adjust the line to what it should be. My friend is an agent for beteagle and has over 1000 people beneath him he told me rite now the money is 2 to 1 on wisconsin. Now with the money being so lopsided you would think that the line would readjust and be moving down. But its not this tells me that the bookies arent laying off to other books and that they are will to bet that illonois is going to win. Anythng thats good enough for the books to take is good enough for me to take

I'm well aware. I was only referring to the opener, which saw Illinois open as a pk, only to be almost immediately bet to a 3-pt. fave.

I agree with you that Illinois is the play, I just strongly disagree with your notion that Illinois' "terrible."

Good luck this weekend.

strictlywinners · 10-05-07, 09:25 AM

Adding one more shady line
Kansas+3 this line is way to low considering Kstates big win against texas. The public watched that upset and will be all over Kstate at 3 look for a big let down take kansas with points maybe even buy a half but i think they win outright

BuddyBear · 10-05-07, 09:39 AM

Colorado is pretty good....they may have some inexperience in the QB position but they have what I would consider an elite D1-A defense, well-coached, and have already beat the #3 team in the country. Not sure about this week though.....this sets up for a pretty big letdown situation but I'd be slightly nervous with Baylor just b/c they have not shown the capacity to score against the good teams (granted on the road though). I can see Baylor covering though.....good spot to fade CU.

strictlywinners · 10-05-07, 09:48 AM

Thanks for input but in none of my post did i even mention this game. I dont like it at all i have no read on the game. Good luck with Baylor though

babaoriley · 10-05-07, 03:23 PM

OU's Defense is terrible??? Have you SEEN UT's LB's attempt to tackle? Read my entire Red River Bloodbath thread, then remember that I'm a UT alum and bleed burnt orange, have seen virtually every snap of every UT game in the Mack Brown era. OU's defense is flat out nasty when they want to be. In this case, they will be ALL OVER McCoy at the line. They will manhandle the right side of UT's O-line (which is decimated by injuries and struggled BEFORE the injuries), they have the closest thing to a shutdown corner in the Big XII (Reggie Smith) to combat Sweed (who was held in check last week too), and they can handle the between-the-tackles running game as wellas the horizontal running game. It just seems to me like you are only looking at one team in this matchup. OU by 7??? That line would have been the fishiest line I've ever seen. I had it pegged as OU -14, give or take half a point. Opened at 10.5, sitting at 12 now... I'm not going to criticize you any more, but take it from someone familiar with this UT team (and OU in general): UT is NOT very good. UCF had a chance to beat us (we were favored by 19 and won by 6), and Arkansas St. had a chance to beat us (favored by 39 and only won by 8). We played well against a very-overrated TCU team that lacks a presence on offense, and played well against a severely outclassed/outcoached Rice team...

strictlywinners · 10-06-07, 12:43 PM

its still early but kansas and illonoi looking solid at half times. The conservative better might want to hedge illonoi taking wisconsin for half the amount of orginal bet in the 2nd half. AS for me i am going to leave illonoi alone and am thinking about taking kansas again

strictlywinners · 10-06-07, 02:16 PM

After a heart breaking loss on marshall to bad i didnt say to buy the point. the shady lines are coming through just like they always do

Marshall loser
Kansas winner
Illonoi winner
Lets go get oklahoma

babaoriley · 10-06-07, 02:21 PM

I'm still not sure why you think any of those lines are shady. Illinios was getting bet by everyone and their mother for good reason: The Big X is a clusterf*ck where home teams get a huge boost. Kansas is a good team and was playing a K.St. team that was overvalued because they beat an overvalued UT team. And I swear, if you jinx this damn Illini game with your post BEFORE THE GAME ENDED, I'll be pissed at you.

babaoriley · 10-06-07, 02:22 PM

Great, TD Wisky. Please, I beg you, don't consider a game "over" until it says "FINAL".

strictlywinners · 10-06-07, 02:32 PM

sorry baba i dont believe in jinxes only bad picks. which i made allot of in baseball season. I know the lines dont seem shady to you but to the public they are. Illonoi an unranked team is favored against the number five team in the nation. they dont seem shady to you because you think like an odds maker.

EJandV · 10-06-07, 02:59 PM

so much read into 50/50

Originally posted by strictlywinners

sorry baba i dont believe in jinxes only bad picks. which i made allot of in baseball season. I know the lines dont seem shady to you but to the public they are. Illonoi an unranked team is favored against the number five team in the nation. they dont seem shady to you because you think like an odds maker.

How much debate could be created about a heads or tails coin flip ?
Becuase Illinois happened to win today you draw certain conclusions to back the way you thought and forecasted the game .
Unforunately that is a bottom line on too many games we read into sooooo much .
That was a great pick on Illinois , cant take nothin away from a winning selection or plus money ever .
Reads , reads ,flips to head , no it is tails , well it was tails because I said it would be tails ?
I know you feel me .
50/50 is not even the odds when you give up the pts or take the pts , that reeally makes it a little more complex .
Nevertheless 50/50 is still always 50/50 which is why it is possible to make money as opposed to having a 1 in 4 chance .... right , wrong , right , is a normal and even a natural way that this works .

strictlywinners · 10-06-07, 03:13 PM

E and J i didnt know you were a philosipher

EJandV · 10-06-07, 03:35 PM

I am no doubt man .

The fact I have wrote all the favs on little pieces of paper and put them in a hat .
Pulled them out 2 at a time (also 3 team combos) and put 2 team combo parlays all over my paper wagering them for $ and did better than I would if I did my real study parlays after working on them for 12 hours the night before and all day before gametime allows me to see it very simply can boil down to the fav/dog count at the end of the night more so (sometimes) than all the sense in the world any of us have .

THAT STRATEGY IS PRETTY SOLID IF IT IS A NICE FAV DAY in THE RESULTS .
If the dogs do well , it is probably a bust . That is just a simple example really that the #s dictate our success if we wager alot of games for the day .
Most would never have confidence in such , but can be simple like that .
Like if you did the HAT with the dogs thus far in the NFL you would be plus money no doubt . Everything you are pulling out the hat would be dogs , the dogs have rocked , in effect we would rock for that big dog week and make $ .
Dont get my wrong I dont have enough confidence to do the hat thing like talking about it , but can be that simple is my point .

Being very selective is of course the more solid way to be in the long run . no hat magic . lol

seaborneq · 10-06-07, 03:53 PM

I was suckered, I took Wisconsin. Good call Strickly.

strictlywinners · 10-06-07, 04:11 PM

EJ your a really funny guy.
Tough push on Wyoming next week i will definetly be buying points

EJandV · 10-06-07, 04:19 PM

When days dont go your way and it just doesnt make sense , you will be looking fo the MAGIC HAT . Just the truth my man .
Note : use your fav team hat , aslo if you wear team shirts and jerseys and have a big collection , always go with what you are sporting that day .
you will hit no worse than a 65% clip . haha

strictlywinners · 10-06-07, 04:23 PM

Well i been doin this for a while and i havent used a magic hat yet. But I have used my girlfriend just telling her to give me random teams,(she did alright) my best is my dog though. for big games such as national championships i go and by both teams hat or mascot stuffed animal. I throw them both and which ever one he decides to play with is the winner

EJandV · 10-06-07, 04:47 PM

whatever works

Originally posted by strictlywinners

Well i been doin this for a while and i havent used a magic hat yet. But I have used my girlfriend just telling her to give me random teams,(she did alright) my best is my dog though. for big games such as national championships i go and by both teams hat or mascot stuffed animal. I throw them both and which ever one he decides to play with is the winner

Lmao , that could work . So you could of had a green alligator from the fair workin for ya huh . Very sweeet .

strictlywinners · 10-06-07, 06:22 PM

update

marshall loser
kansas winner
illonois winner
wyoming push
oklahoma loser
comes down to the late games i am obsolutely in love with this east carolina game