Marshall @ Memphis (-2.5)

[MJFtheGenius]

To me these teams are kind of even, maybe mephis is a little better but the home field advantage should give the Tigers the edge. What do you guys think?

[djeffectz]

one of their teammate got killed, i dunno if it will make them sad or hyped up, (play hard for him)

[forex]

Memphis all the way

[onlooker]

I was looking at the UNDER in this match up.

[prop]

Marshal is available +3 and I think it is a solid pick.
These teams are not even, Marshal is clearly the superior team but the home field advantage is big in this one.

While Marshal only averages 18.8 points per game take a look at their opponents this year (ignore NH) they played Miami FL, West Virginia and Cincinnati. The biggest reason they've scored so few points per game has been turnovers and a lot of pre-snap penalties has done nothing to help their cause either.
While Memphis does have +0.75 turn over differential average on the season they've played sub par opponents and have a horrible defense in all areas.
Marshals offense should put up 31 points in this game.

Marshal has big time concerns on defense though but their biggest weakness is stopping the run. Thankfully the Tigers move the ball mostly through the air (but perhaps that will change against Marshal who really is absolutely horrible at stopping the run).

Another big edge to Marshal is that Memphis is playing their 3rd game in 10 days and Memphis is a Horrible 2nd half team already. The Memphis team has major major conditioning issues as their team is big time partiers who spend most their time drinking and gambling - this is a wild bunch.

Marshal has not played football since September 22 and has had plenty of time to rest and practice.

This is Memphis’s 3rd game in 10 days and they have not practiced since their game on the 27th in which they were leading 31-6 at the half but ended up losing 35-31.

I had a friend track down a member of the team to find out the scoop on exactly who Taylor Bradford was to the team. While this guy did not play he was close to everyone on the team. From what I hear he was a big time gambler (I guess he had $10K on him when he was found dead) who took teammates along on gambling sprees to casinos, he through big beer bashes etc. He was not some quiet member of the team that the players just played with. He was a friend to a lot of these guys and well known.

Disclaimer I feel I need to add seeing as I gave such a 1 sided analysis: My picks are not locks by any means. I am a full time sports bettor who spends 40 hours per week analyzing games, tracking down info etc. I don't post picks often but I decided to come to this forum because I really hate scum books and I love this site and thought it would be a cool place to hang out because of what SBR is about. I mght start posting some plays time to time, so let me describe them. A play when i say I think is solid means I think it has a 2-6% chance over the needed break even % to win. I've gone 0-8 and 8-0 many times. So be responsible, my units are 1.3% of bankroll.

[prop]

Total to close to call I think. i see 31-28 or 31-30 Marshal.

Also I did not note the fact about the Kickers.
Marshall has a good kicker great at under 40 yards
Memphis has a horrible kicker, I won't be surprised if a missed extra point or two is the difference in this game.

Also at top of post I said home field advantage is big in this game.

Marshal has so many penalties before the snap its disgusting. Turn over differential and home field advantages are the edges for Memphis in this game.

Everywhere else I see the match up favors Marshal but not by a lot.

The +3, and the fatigue factor for an already poorly conditioned team and the big edge in kickers are the difference makers to make me sid with Marshal.

[MJFtheGenius]

Nice info prop but no way I would back Marshall here. In the last 3 years Marshall is 2-11 ATS on the road. True Marshall did play tough teams and they got their ass kicked by all of them and showed nothing for anyone to consider they have talent on that team. I am taking the home team in this one

[MJFtheGenius]

Forget that last post, the 2-11 ats on the road for Marshall is true but now I think I am flipping to marshall, I need to think about this more.

[MJFtheGenius]

Marshall did lose to a 1aa team at least memphis won against theirs

[strictlywinners]

Marshall Is Play If Any
And For You Degenerates Out There That Need An Over Under Play Lean Towards Under. Over Is Way Too Obvious Considering That Marshall Had Went Over 11 Times In Their Last 11 Games On Turf And Memphis Is 10and 1 In Favor Of The Over In Their Last 11 Games. The Over Is Way To Easy Go With Marshall And The Under

[prop]

Don't hold me responsible if you change your mind. When i win a bet its exciting but when i lose i don't flinch much I will lose plenty more, just hopefully will continue to win more than I lose. If there was a full line up of college games I'm sure I would find more value on 4 or 5 games and not even mention this one. This was all I had to look at tonight and was surprised/thankful to find value.
Before I looked at the games if someone came along and said i would give you 2 to 1 but you need to bet in 30 seconds tell me which side you want my reflex would of said Memphis, thats how I started digging on this game with the Memphis side suspected to be the better play, but as I started turning over leaves and then digging up info I began to lean Marshal but it looked like such a small edge it was not worth betting.
Then I realized I missed something, I did not know that Memphis had played those just a few days ago and were playing their 3rd game since September 22. This was enough to make it a solid play IMO.
The only thing I did not do was take any consideration to how the murder effected the team - I only used that in the fatigue factor and put the emotional aspect aside. I don't know how that effects a team because unfortunately my database has an insufficient sample size for any stats related to teammates being murdered.
I really don't know how the emotional aspect plays in - does it hurt or help the chances of the team performing well? I have no idea.

[MJFtheGenius]

Yes Marshall it is for me, the biggest factor here being Marshalll is well rested and prepared for this game and memphis is definetly not well rested and proabbly not as mentally prepared dealing with the death of the teammate and less time to prepare for Marshall. Marshall all the way!!!!!

[forex]

Marshal is available +3 and I think it is a solid pick.
These teams are not even, Marshal is clearly the superior team but the home field advantage is big in this one.

While Marshal only averages 18.8 points per game take a look at their opponents this year (ignore NH) they played Miami FL, West Virginia and Cincinnati. The biggest reason they've scored so few points per game has been turnovers and a lot of pre-snap penalties has done nothing to help their cause either.
While Memphis does have +0.75 turn over differential average on the season they've played sub par opponents and have a horrible defense in all areas.
Marshals offense should put up 31 points in this game.

Marshal has big time concerns on defense though but their biggest weakness is stopping the run. Thankfully the Tigers move the ball mostly through the air (but perhaps that will change against Marshal who really is absolutely horrible at stopping the run).

Another big edge to Marshal is that Memphis is playing their 3rd game in 10 days and Memphis is a Horrible 2nd half team already. The Memphis team has major major conditioning issues as their team is big time partiers who spend most their time drinking and gambling - this is a wild bunch.

Marshal has not played football since September 22 and has had plenty of time to rest and practice.

This is Memphis’s 3rd game in 10 days and they have not practiced since their game on the 27th in which they were leading 31-6 at the half but ended up losing 35-31.

I had a friend track down a member of the team to find out the scoop on exactly who Taylor Bradford was to the team. While this guy did not play he was close to everyone on the team. From what I hear he was a big time gambler (I guess he had $10K on him when he was found dead) who took teammates along on gambling sprees to casinos, he through big beer bashes etc. He was not some quiet member of the team that the players just played with. He was a friend to a lot of these guys and well known.

Disclaimer I feel I need to add seeing as I gave such a 1 sided analysis: My picks are not locks by any means. I am a full time sports bettor who spends 40 hours per week analyzing games, tracking down info etc. I don't post picks often but I decided to come to this forum because I really hate scum books and I love this site and thought it would be a cool place to hang out because of what SBR is about. I mght start posting some plays time to time, so let me describe them. A play when i say I think is solid means I think it has a 2-6% chance over the needed break even % to win. I've gone 0-8 and 8-0 many times. So be responsible, my units are 1.3% of bankroll.

I agree with you there Prop on Memphis, and your disclaimer is right on, thats how I found out about this forum I like what SBR is all about.

[nevadaside]

I like the edge MAR should have in "fatigue" factor here.
You got MEM playing 3 games in 11 days......vs a 2 week rested & hopefully prepared MAR (I mean two weeks to prepare for MEM.....come on).
MEM may very well run out o gas, & scoring may be low, especially 2ndH.

MEM players emotions possibly runnning amuck in this one, could go either way in helping/hurting them depending on how the emotions are used/harnessed.....who knows.

I think MAR & Under teased 7pts is worth a 0.5* shot. Actually like MAR ML but won't push it.

[bmac]

BOL Prop.... I am on Marshal +3 tonight as well.

Thanks for some extra info as well.

[Sclass600]

All over the Marshall +3 play they will show up to play this game

[pavyracer]

Marshal is available +3 and I think it is a solid pick.
These teams are not even, Marshal is clearly the superior team but the home field advantage is big in this one.

While Marshal only averages 18.8 points per game take a look at their opponents this year (ignore NH) they played Miami FL, West Virginia and Cincinnati. The biggest reason they've scored so few points per game has been turnovers and a lot of pre-snap penalties has done nothing to help their cause either.
While Memphis does have +0.75 turn over differential average on the season they've played sub par opponents and have a horrible defense in all areas.
Marshals offense should put up 31 points in this game.

Marshal has big time concerns on defense though but their biggest weakness is stopping the run. Thankfully the Tigers move the ball mostly through the air (but perhaps that will change against Marshal who really is absolutely horrible at stopping the run).

Another big edge to Marshal is that Memphis is playing their 3rd game in 10 days and Memphis is a Horrible 2nd half team already. The Memphis team has major major conditioning issues as their team is big time partiers who spend most their time drinking and gambling - this is a wild bunch.

Marshal has not played football since September 22 and has had plenty of time to rest and practice.

This is Memphis’s 3rd game in 10 days and they have not practiced since their game on the 27th in which they were leading 31-6 at the half but ended up losing 35-31.

I had a friend track down a member of the team to find out the scoop on exactly who Taylor Bradford was to the team. While this guy did not play he was close to everyone on the team. From what I hear he was a big time gambler (I guess he had $10K on him when he was found dead) who took teammates along on gambling sprees to casinos, he through big beer bashes etc. He was not some quiet member of the team that the players just played with. He was a friend to a lot of these guys and well known.

Disclaimer I feel I need to add seeing as I gave such a 1 sided analysis: My picks are not locks by any means. I am a full time sports bettor who spends 40 hours per week analyzing games, tracking down info etc. I don't post picks often but I decided to come to this forum because I really hate scum books and I love this site and thought it would be a cool place to hang out because of what SBR is about. I mght start posting some plays time to time, so let me describe them. A play when i say I think is solid means I think it has a 2-6% chance over the needed break even % to win. I've gone 0-8 and 8-0 many times. So be responsible, my units are 1.3% of bankroll.

I disagree. Marshall is a very bad team. Memphis will cover the spread.

[bmac]

I disagree. Marshall is a very bad team. Memphis will cover the spread.

Any particular reason that you think Memphis will cover other than Marshal being a "bad team"?

[swifty]

OK, I'll admit it. I barely know anything about these two teams. Well, that's not true... I know one thing. The Tigers will be playing their hearts out tonight after Taylor Bradford, the team's 21-year-old defensive lineman, was shot to death Sunday night. Memphis is dedicating this game to him. This is my October college football pick of the month.



Prediction:
Memphis 34, Marshall 7
Memphis -3 (6 Units - October College Football Pick of the Month)

[makethatmoney]

I disagree. Marshall is a very bad team. Memphis will cover the spread.

Memphis is also a very bad team! with a worse defense that will collapse in the 4th...I got MAR +3 -105

[Sclass600]

Marshall +3 is THE LOCK OF THE WEEK B/C strength of schedule in my opinion

[mastercapper]

Marshall +3 and UNDER 60 ......... The murder is going to hurt them tonight alot more than its going to help. Also, look at Marshall's previous schedule this year<good teams> They are just waiting to play a team like Memphis. The Tigers are drained bigtime for several reasons.

[WestsidePete]

Marshall +3 and UNDER 60 ......... The murder is going to hurt them tonight alot more than its going to help. Also, look at Marshall's previous schedule this year<good teams> They are just waiting to play a team like Memphis. The Tigers are drained bigtime for several reasons.

teased Marshall +10 under 66.5.....

[jonmic]

Marshall +3 is the play tonight, I'm putting 3 units on it!

[crackerjack]

Memphis first half, Marshall game

[mastercapper]

Why first half? Let me guess.....their emotions!!!!!!! Im telling you its gonna hurt them more tonight than its gonna help. GL though on that first half BS!!

[Aces]

Both teams are bad very bad. But I'm leaning toward Memphis. Marshals had a big rest which in some cases isn't a good thing.

Memphis 1st qtr - 1/2 +120
Memphis 2nd qtr - 1/2 +125

GL all

[moneyplays]

Moneyplays is back bishes!

I took memphis... Lets make some money.

[Doc JS]

Both teams are bad very bad. But I'm leaning toward Memphis. Marshals had a big rest which in some cases isn't a good thing.

Memphis 1st qtr - 1/2 +120
Memphis 2nd qtr - 1/2 +125

GL all

Aces,
I tailed you on these two bets. Congrats on the first qtr. win! Hoping for more of the same in the 2nd!

[crackerjack]

Why first half? Let me guess.....their emotions!!!!!!! Im telling you its gonna hurt them more tonight than its gonna help. GL though on that first half BS!!

I needed a late FG to cover, but I will take it. Guess it wasn't quite BS...hope you didn't go the other way.