Texas -14 vs. K State

**OrionSky** · 09-28-07, 02:16 PM

I'm with you Pete, the Longhorns are hot and should easily cover. -14 is minuscule compared to last weekend. The only game they didn't cover was with Central Florida, they are another hot team and kept it close. Thinking this will be a blow out and it has one of my highest bets this weekend.

**ritehook** · 09-28-07, 02:20 PM

I'm likewise hooked on the Horns this weekend.

Someone noted in another thread that Texas may be "looking ahead" to Oklahoma next week. That's a possibility, but the noisy hometown crowd should have them keeping their mind on this game.

**emat** · 09-28-07, 02:55 PM

I would not call Texas a lock. I am from the area and while I think Texas will win, I think the points are about right maybe even a little high. I would guess margin of victory between 10-14, which makes this a tough call. Many people around here, including anti-KSU people, are calling for KSU to beat them straght up. The only game Texas has looked impressive was against Rice, which is one of the worst teams in the country. Remember KSU beat Texas last year and KSU is a much improved team this year, especially on D. I would call Texas about the same. Again, I think Texas will win, but the spread is too close to call here. Maybe tease it down to -8 and take the over at 49.

**OrionSky** · 09-28-07, 03:02 PM

Thanks for that info emat. Might not be a bad idea...

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-28-07, 11:23 PM

I hate the L word and that's usually the kiss of death for any pick, but I think TX has a better chance of covering this than K-State does. K-State's only road test was Auburn, a sub-par Tigers team that tried to give that game away but still won by 10. TX at home looks good because I'm not sold that this K-State team is as good as last year's that suprised TX and I'm sure the Horns will look for a bit of revenge.

**OrionSky** · 09-28-07, 11:39 PM

I hate the L word too and I would never use it...it's sure to jinx things

**babaoriley** · 09-28-07, 11:48 PM

Originally posted by OrionSky

I'm with you Pete, the Longhorns are hot and should easily cover. -14 is minuscule compared to last weekend. The only game they didn't cover was with Central Florida, they are another hot team and kept it close. Thinking this will be a blow out and it has one of my highest bets this weekend.

Nope, they didn't cover against Arkansas St in the season opener. 38 point favorites and they won by 8. They were 19 point favorites against UCF and won by 6. They're 2-2 ATS.

**babaoriley** · 09-28-07, 11:52 PM

Originally posted by emat

I would not call Texas a lock. I am from the area and while I think Texas will win, I think the points are about right maybe even a little high. I would guess margin of victory between 10-14, which makes this a tough call. Many people around here, including anti-KSU people, are calling for KSU to beat them straght up. The only game Texas has looked impressive was against Rice, which is one of the worst teams in the country. Remember KSU beat Texas last year and KSU is a much improved team this year, especially on D. I would call Texas about the same. Again, I think Texas will win, but the spread is too close to call here. Maybe tease it down to -8 and take the over at 49.

Really, so beating TCU by 21 doesn't count as impressive??? They covered in that game as 10 point favorites, if I recall. Rice was just a mercy killing. Oh, and I do like UT -14. I'm just saying that UT beating then #19th ranked TCU by 21 (hanging 34 points on a great defense) was more impressive.

**babaoriley** · 09-28-07, 11:54 PM

Also, as much as I hate to say it, I believe UT is the most overrated team in the nation right now, and I'm a Longhorn grad who has been a lifelong UT fan. I hope we cover this game handily (think revenge factor) and then I'll pound OU against UT next week. We'll get slaughtered. At least, that's the way I see it.

**OrionSky** · 09-29-07, 12:04 AM

Yes, I did forget the season opener. I thought the game with UCF was impressive.

**OrionSky** · 09-29-07, 12:06 AM

You think Oklahoma will kill them baba?

**ws1975** · 09-29-07, 08:41 AM

This is a revenge game for the horns after losing at KSU last season. They will be just fine and will be KSU by at least 17 points.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-29-07, 02:08 PM

Originally posted by babaoriley

Really, so beating TCU by 21 doesn't count as impressive??? They covered in that game as 10 point favorites, if I recall. Rice was just a mercy killing. Oh, and I do like UT -14. I'm just saying that UT beating then #19th ranked TCU by 21 (hanging 34 points on a great defense) was more impressive.

I think TCU is right up there with teams that are over rated. I still can't believe so many people thought they had a chance vs. Texas. No offense = no chance. I think I'm gonna use UT in a teaser at -8.5.

**laxdjock** · 09-29-07, 02:23 PM

I like the UT -9 & OV +50.5 tease.

I think UT will cover at least 10-12, but the 15 it was sitting at was a little iffy for me, instead of buying down, I think the OV was a safer bet.

**Dirty D** · 09-29-07, 02:48 PM

Originally posted by OrionSky

I'm with you Pete, the Longhorns are hot and should easily cover. -14 is minuscule compared to last weekend. The only game they didn't cover was with Central Florida, they are another hot team and kept it close. Thinking this will be a blow out and it has one of my highest bets this weekend.

They didn't cover in their home opener against Arkansas St.

**jaffers** · 09-29-07, 03:39 PM

both teams having trouble moving this ball today... only 200 yards offense with just 5 min.s left in 2nd half... i guess k state came to play...

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-29-07, 04:20 PM

Colt McCoy got KO'ed again.

**bigboydan** · 09-29-07, 04:22 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Colt McCoy got KO'ed again.

I seen that Mr.Eagles. Just how bad did he get hurt anyways, because I seen his arm was just limp like when he was running into the locker room at halftime.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-29-07, 04:27 PM

Not sure, but with his history of shoulder injuries I would be shocked if he comes back in this game especially with OU next week.

**bigboydan** · 09-29-07, 04:30 PM

Exactly Mr.Eagles. Not to mention he had 2 shots this week so he could play this game to boot.

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-29-07, 04:34 PM

McCoy is back in. Wow. We'll see if that hurts or helps.

**bigboydan** · 09-29-07, 04:36 PM

I just caught that one myself Mr.Eagles.

Why in the hell would they let him play in this monsoon and with OU game next week is beyond me though.

**babaoriley** · 09-29-07, 04:43 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I think TCU is right up there with teams that are over rated. I still can't believe so many people thought they had a chance vs. Texas. No offense = no chance. I think I'm gonna use UT in a teaser at -8.5.

Yeah, I pounded UT against TCU also... I agree that TCU is overrated, but beating TCU by 21 is more impressive than stomping UCF, IMO.

Oh, and here's to pounding the early, middle, late, in-running, etc, lines on OU over UT next week. Slaughter alert.

**jaffers** · 09-29-07, 04:44 PM

"Why in the hell would they let him play in this monsoon and with OU game next week is beyond me though."

this is a must win game that is why they got him in there i don't think they are thinking about oklahoma anymore... this team HAS to win today ...

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-29-07, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by babaoriley

Yeah, I pounded UT against TCU also... I agree that TCU is overrated, but beating TCU by 21 is more impressive than stomping UCF, IMO.

Oh, and here's to pounding the early, middle, late, in-running, etc, lines on OU over UT next week. Slaughter alert.

I agreed with that before OU's loss today and I agree with that still.

**jaffers** · 09-29-07, 04:51 PM

a nice drive there 10 plays 80 yards touchdown... nice way to start the 2nd half go texas!!!

**babaoriley** · 09-29-07, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by OrionSky

You think Oklahoma will kill them baba?

Let's just put it this way: when you go to wager on that game and see OU at -10 or so (-14 or so if UT loses), just think: Stoops or Mack Brown. Think back to every OU-UT game during the Mack Brown era that didn't either A) involve Vince Young or B) involve an injured Adrian Peterson and a car dealership scandal... I hate betting against my boys, but yes, they will get killed by OU. It won't be pretty. This Texas team is poorly coached, poorly motivated, executes poorly (see a trend). Take the first half of this game... Name one other coach that would run a play from your own 20, with the play clock turned off as halftime is coming up, right after your starting QB got knocked out of the game leading to a huge momentum switch. Name ONE other coach that would take that chance. There were only three possibilities on that play: UT runs for an 80 yard TD, UT fumbles and possibly gives up a Defensive TD, or Jamaal Charles gets injured and you're out a starting QB and starting RB. They are as poorly coached as any "elite" team could possibly be... Right up there with Michigan.

And why in God's name can they allow Jordy Nelson to catch 8 passes in the first half??? The guy has been all-world as of late and UT can't double him or at least jam him off the line? By my count (which is just memory based), I'd say 70% of the targets have been to Jordy? Why not take him out of play??? As I typed this, he just caught his ninth.

**babaoriley** · 09-29-07, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by jaffers

"Why in the hell would they let him play in this monsoon and with OU game next week is beyond me though."

this is a must win game that is why they got him in there i don't think they are thinking about oklahoma anymore... this team HAS to win today ...

To be perfectly honest, Chiles gives them a much needed change of pace QB that K. St. has certainly not planned for... I think UT would be better off with Chiles or at least a rotation to keep K St. guessing. McCoy is rattled, the weather favors a running game, etc. P.S. as a follow to my last post, Jordy Nelson just caught two more passes while I typed this post. He now has 11 receptions and is not commanding any special attention.

**rjt721** · 09-29-07, 05:01 PM

OU losing today makes me like the Sooners even more next week.

**onlooker** · 09-29-07, 05:02 PM

I would like to see Texas lose this one. It would really mix things up in the top 10.

**babaoriley** · 09-29-07, 05:06 PM

Originally posted by rjt721

OU losing today makes me like the Sooners even more next week.

Couldn't possibly agree more. If UT wins (and god forbid manages to win convincingly) then there will be extreme value with OU.

P.S. Nice pass Colt. 3rd INT. I've said it on these very forums several times: Colt McCoy is the right handed Chris Simms. I couldn't possibly imagine a more accurate comparison, actually...

**jaffers** · 09-29-07, 05:15 PM

damn 90 yard punt return ... i wish i could see this game on something other than a gametracker.... not broadcasted here in wisconsin

**EaglesPhan36** · 09-29-07, 05:15 PM

TX is done. Second special teams TD given up on the day. I had UT in a teaser, but I don't like 'em so this makes me smile in losing.

**babaoriley** · 09-29-07, 05:16 PM

OK, here's my thing on Colt McCoy (keep in mind, I've watched EVERY UT game that he's played)...

-He locks in on one WR (a la Simms). This inevitably leads to a ton of tipped balls at the line (or as today, a Defensive lineman pick 6). The tipped balls just KILL drives... He can't feel pressure and lacks the peripheral vision that is absolutely essential to a QB. He can't read defensive setups. He makes throws to receivers who are sitting behind the line that have absolutely no possibility of gaining positive yards. He isn't accurate. He overthrows everything.

Oh, and UT can't tackle, as evidenced by the Nelson Punt return TD and the earlier kick return for a TD. For those of you keeping score at home: 14 points from kick/punt returns, 13 from turnovers. This is a team imploding.