Over-Under Plays for 2017

Ralphie Halves · 06-12-17, 04:20 PM

I see you came to my side on UVA. Good move IMO. I can't argue with much of your list. Not sold on the Hurricanes, but possible given their schedule.

Ralphie Halves · 06-12-17, 04:25 PM

My final list, that I may still add on to after today but I doubt it. Lines are from the South Point opener sheet. Write ups are on this thread: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...der-takes.html

Idaho OVR 4.5
USC OVR 10
Nebraska UND 7.5
Purdue OVR 2.5
Hawaii OVR 4
NCST OVR 6.5
Virginia UND 5.5
Toledo OVR 8.5
Georgia OVR 9
Notre Dame UND 7.5

And adding...

Iowa St UND 5.5

Let's see how they do.

BigdaddyQH · 06-13-17, 11:32 AM

The thing about Virginia is this. To go Over this line means that you think that Virginia is a team that can become bowl eligible. I do not see an away win for this group, and home wins against Ga. Tech and VA. Tech are very unlikely. Indiana and Duke are certainly no locks either. That is just too much to ask fro a team that has already shown depth problems on the offense. They are very thin at QB, and RB.

I have no idea what Notre Dame will do this season. They can be 6-0 going into the USC game or 2-4. The defensive line is a major concern, and that can lead to big trouble against teams with solid QB's and running games like Georgia, USC, and Miami (FL). The Irish got rid of 6 assistant coaches after last season including three coordinators. Perhaps they should have HC Kelly in that list.

Iowa State should start the season 2-1 in non-conference play. Getting to 6 wins means they have to win 4 games in the Big 12. Kansas at home is pretty much a given, but who else can they defeat? Their other conference home games are against Texas, TCU, and Oklahoma State. It is hard to picture them winning at Oklahoma, West Virginia, or Kansas State. Both lines need major improvement. Even if they get some improvement, 5 wins looks like the max for this team. Good obs here Ralphie. I completely overlooked this. While I am not overwhelmed at the -130, I am adding Iowa State Under 5 1/2 to my wagers.

Nebraska is tough. I can see wins against Arkansas State, No. Illinois, Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota and Iowa. Losses include Wisconsin and Ohio State (at home. Use Caution.) and at Penn State. Basically the number may come down to an away game at Oregon, where Riley is used to playing, and a home game with Northwestern. With their lack of starters returning in the offensive backfield, but a good defense returning, this is too tough for me to call.

Ralphie Halves · 06-13-17, 04:17 PM

Nebraska is one of my weakest plays, but still good enough to make the list. I think they'll have trouble with Minnesota and Iowa, I think going 2-0 there is very unlikely. They lay one egg against the patsies, and they're going under the total before it even starts. Minnesota BTW is an interesting pick to go over. We'll see what PJ can do there.

There is no reason to get excited about Iowa State. They are no longer the gritty little Paul Rhoades team that people hated to play, the attitude is different, and the talent just is not there, and that's understating it.

I just don't get what anyone sees in Notre Dame. This team quit on coach Kelley last year, and had a monster QB which they don't have now. Scheme changes everywhere, which take time to adjust to, and now you're telling me they're going to double their win total? I'll take that bet.

The more I look at it, you could honestly sweep those SEC picks. I think LSU probably lands right on the number, but no more than that for sure. Safe bet. Lazy people every year say about Ark and MSU "they have talent", just because they're SEC, not because they actually know who the players are. This year, both seriously do have talent. Great QBs too. I actually think MSU is a better team than Ark right now.

BigdaddyQH · 06-13-17, 07:19 PM

I picked Minny to go Under 7 1/2. They only return 2 of their front 7 on defense and they lose their starting QB. It is quite possible that Minny loses their last 5 games of the 2017 season (at Iowa, at Michigan, Nebraska, at Northwestern, and Wisconsin). That alone puts them Under the total. I doubt if they go into their last 5 games at 7-0.

Capitols44 · 06-13-17, 11:06 PM

Just for the record bigdaddyhq what was your win loss record as far as over/under total games won last year.

BigdaddyQH · 06-14-17, 11:23 AM

It was a winning percentage. I do not remember the exact record, but it was around 60% or more counting the vig.

slim dog · 06-16-17, 06:57 AM

Was wondering your take on Kansas State. Yes, I'm a fan and bleed purple, but seems like easy money at 7.5. This is the year they have 5 conf home games and another at Kansas which is mir less a home game packed with more fans. Bill Snyder really dies well with returning qb's and has a great group of returners coming back off of bowl win vs Texas A&M.

BigdaddyQH · 06-16-17, 10:31 AM

K-State is weak in the LB position. They also lose Jordan Willis. They are strong on offense, but so are all of the Big 12 teams that have a shot at the title. I see losses at Texas, Oklahoma State, and home losses to Oklahoma and TCU. That leaves no room for error. There are better bets out there IMO.

Ralphie Halves · 06-16-17, 05:35 PM

I was really close to taking KSt over.

BigdaddyQH · 06-16-17, 07:29 PM

I think Kansas State is certainly capable of wining 8 games, but all of the mess surrounding the release of WR Sutton is a big red flag in my book. Sutton won. Snyder lost. It is that simple.