What am I missing with the Irish ??

**onlooker** · 09-20-07, 11:12 PM

They all have bigger balls then I do. I can't touch Notre Dame. I am passing on that game altogether.

**pokernut9999** · 09-20-07, 11:18 PM

And they have negative rushing yards after 3 games. Is that not a NCAA record ?

**Wassymac** · 09-20-07, 11:40 PM

they're playing Michigan State

**pokernut9999** · 09-21-07, 12:11 AM

Same team that beat them last 2 times in South Bend

**BuddyBear** · 09-21-07, 12:14 AM

Originally posted by pokernut9999

Same team that beat them last 2 times in South Bend

You mean the last 5 times they have won in South Bend....

**EBone** · 09-21-07, 01:51 PM

If you like Notre Dame, I think you must think the following or some combination thereof:

1) Michigan State plays their 1st road game of the year in South Bend.

2) Mich State has beaten UAB, Bowling Green and Pitt all at home with the only stout victory being UAB. I think UAB is weak. Pitt had injuries and Mich State still couldn't cover because of their inept play. As BB states in his thread, Mich State should have covered against Pitt but couldn't because of ineptitude.

3) ND has lost to Penn State, Georgia Tech and Michigan. Even if you think Michigan is a patsy, I still think they are better than UAB, Bowling Green or Pitt. Schedule toughness thus far, in my opinion, is advantage ND.

4) Do we all think that ND is not ever going to get an offensive TD in 2007? I'm not a very smart guy but I gotta believe they are going to score an offensive TD sooner rather than later.

Just trying to state a case. I am not sure if I'm gonna play ND yet due to the facts pokernut states. The big point for me is that this is Mich State's first road game. Talk about an unknown: we have no idea how MSU will react in South Bend.

We also don't know if ND will lay down or come out fighting on Saturday. I know most on this board think Good Time Charlie is an overrated coach, however, I'm not so sure Mich State is that good. We shall see.

E

**austintx05** · 09-21-07, 02:56 PM

go MSU

**BuddyBear** · 09-21-07, 03:06 PM

If anyone else here is a lifelong long MSU fan they know this is a major dead spot for them. Time and time again in these spots MSU flonders. Really an Irish victory would not be a surprise to me.

**pokernut9999** · 09-21-07, 03:12 PM

I doubt many major teams have lost 5 straight games as bad as the Irish. Yes they were to good teams, but hell anyone should be able to a score a TD once or have positve rushing yards by now. I am not saying Michigan St. is a lock but to put money on a team as bad as this makes one wonder.

And to keep calling Michigan St. a bad team is a stretch.

Ga Tech and Michigan are not that strong. Tech's other win was against a 1AA team.

**rugbybdyb** · 09-21-07, 03:22 PM

They are now saying they have changed the name to field goal Jesus.......So I dont think that Mich State will have any problem on the road in this one....

**EBone** · 09-21-07, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by pokernut9999

I doubt many major teams have lost 5 straight games as bad as the Irish. Yes they were to good teams, but hell anyone should be able to a score a TD once or have positve rushing yards by now. I am not saying Michigan St. is a lock but to put money on a team as bad as this makes one wonder.

And to keep calling Michigan St. a bad team is a stretch.

Ga Tech and Michigan are not that strong. Tech's other win was against a 1AA team.

Fair enough, PN. I'll state again that I have not put one dollar on ND yet. But, I will say that I'll play ND or nothing here.

Sports Insights reports 59% of bets made are on Mich State and 41% of bets made are on ND and the line has fallen. I suppose it is debatable as to the interpretation of that. It could be that hard Catholic money is bringing it down or it could be sharp money bringing it down. Don't know.

Good luck though. The disparity in the Fla-Ole Miss # of bets from Sports Insights is real intriguing though.

E

**EBone** · 09-21-07, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by rugbybdyb

They are now saying they have changed the name to field goal Jesus.......So I dont think that Mich State will have any problem on the road in this one....

HA!!! Funny stuff.

E

**BuddyBear** · 09-21-07, 03:31 PM

Trust me, MSU is not very good. They are not that much better than ND and MSU would also have an 0-3 record if they faced the same teams ND did. They may have more expereince but for MSU to be DD road favorites is a huge overreaction. I can understand passing on this game but laying this many points with MSU is near suicide in my opinion. They have absolutely no numbers to support them in this position and MSU's play has been less than stellar so far. They couldn't even handle a bad Pitt team starting a true freshman and it wasn't till the final play of the game till it was really over.

Usually i can make a case for MSU as a dog, at home, but MSU is the worst team ATS the past 7 years (32-50-2 ATS; 3-9 ATS as an away favorite; 14-29 ATS as a favorite of any kind; 12-23 SU on the road; etc...). This is just not a team you lay points with on the road. I am not sure what is compelling people to consider MSU so intensely.

**pokernut9999** · 09-21-07, 03:48 PM

Penn St line of 17.5 was an overrecation too !!!

**BuddyBear** · 09-21-07, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by pokernut9999

Penn St line of 17.5 was an overrecation too !!!

With all do respect, I believe my characterization of this line as an overreaction is more than warranted saying nothing about the actual outcome of this game. Please explain to me then how is it possible that this line opens up MSU -14.5 and is now -10.5 with the majority of bets being placed on MSU????

To me, -14.5 seems like a major overreaction. I think the proper line is probably closer to MSU -7/-7.5.

**pokernut9999** · 09-21-07, 04:40 PM

Instead of using the teams past ATS history to cap this game do this instead. Find past history of this.

Find any team team that has this going for them.

1. 0-3
2. 13 points (2 fg's and int return)
3. dead last in every offensive stat.
4. defense giving up 30+ every game.

If you can find any ( Temple , Buffalo, Duke come to mind)
I am sure you would see them double digits to any major conference team that is 3-0.

Like the guy that said last week how is Florida favored by more than Cal was vs. Tenn. The odds are to balance betting not a prediction of the outcome. Cal opened at 5 vs Tenn, so if Fla opened less than that how much play would have been on Tenn? Not many would have taken less than 5 but 8 is value. Same here if line opens at 7 who in their right mind would take them? But at 14.5 it opens eyes.

**BuddyBear** · 09-21-07, 05:13 PM

In the tenn/fla game there was .5 line swing...almost neglible. That is not even a fair comparsion. You are going to tell me a 4 pt line swing before Friday means nothing? It does not mean the line was an overreaction???

Okay then, why is the line moving down? Who is moving it down if more people are betting on MSU? Come on man, i am not even saying anything about who is going to win or lose of cover or not....what I am saying is 14.5 is too high for two teams that are not that much different.