Week 4 plays from BuddyBear

**onlooker** · 09-20-07, 06:41 PM

I am not on or against any of those plays BuddyBear.

Good luck this weekend.

**pokernut9999** · 09-20-07, 06:58 PM

Good luck this week Buddy. I have 2 leans against you and non of the others on my radar. Best of luck.

**imgv94** · 09-20-07, 07:11 PM

You are loved Buddy.

**EBone** · 09-20-07, 09:42 PM

BB,

I'm interested in 3. The others I have no opinion either way.

Mississippi, ND and Northern Illinois interest me. I do not know if I'll play any of them.

Everyone thinks Florida are world beaters after their trouncing of Tennessee but Florida hasn't played a road game yet......Everyone thinks Notre Dame are the biggest bunch of losers to ever walk the face of the earth yet Michigan State hasn't played a road game yet. Everyone thinks Idaho might be pretty good since they kept it reasonable against USC and Wash State and Northern Illinois comes off a bad, bad loss to Eastern Michigan.

I guess my point is.....these 3 are substantial anti-public plays. I haven't looked at where the money is being bet yet but my sense is that the opposite of these 3 will be huge public plays. We shall see how these 3 pan out. Good luck.

E

**pags11** · 09-20-07, 10:11 PM

buddy,

GL this week with all of your plays this week my friend...

**BuddyBear** · 09-20-07, 10:19 PM

Ebone,

Thanks for the comments. I agree with you on Notre Dame. This line is a major overreaction. You are going to tell me everyone is going to be favored against ND this year....what if Baylor or Rice plays there???? I love Michigan State and will root for them (i graduated from there) to cash SU but not ATS just like last week. The fact of the matter is that Notre Dame is indeed a very poor team....no two ways about it. But still, MSU is not very good either even though their 3-0 record may suggest otherwise. In fact, most publications had them somewhere between 9-11 in the Big Ten this year. They have a first year QB as well, they perform poorly as road favorite (3-9 ATS in their last 12), have yet to play a road game, and have played extraordinarily weak competition in UAB, Bowling Green, and Pitt. Outside of the UAB game, they have struggled and looked very sloppy at times. They could have beat Pitt by 24 in that game but had to hang on to win by just 4. Throw in the fact that this appears to be ND's only winnable game till November and you better believe that they will be pumped up for this rivarly game. Keep in mind that ND played GT, PSU, and UMICH so perhaps the slow start has something to do with the level of competition. Like I said early, most teams would go 0-3 or perhaps 1-2 against those teams. Talent is about even in this one and throw in all the other intagibles (i.e. rivalry, homefield, desperation for a win, public perception of ND, etc...) and really to me ND has a very good shot at winning outright. I'll hope MSU wins and there is plenty of room for me to cash this ticket and MSU to win so I'll hope for both. It's up to you if you still want to play it with the line moving down. It's possible this game closes under +10 so you may want to act fast.

I like the spot Old Miss is in myself. They've done well in this role as a home dog in years past and if you look at Ed Oregon's track record, his best game is always his first SEC home game. You are right, this will be another test for Florida going on the road. These are difficult spreads to cover for SEC teams no matter how good they are. This will be Tim Tebow's first road game as a starter and I expect him to have some struggles. Sooner or later UF's defense that returned 2 starters will show signs of inexperience and this is the perfect spot to do so. I also like the fact that this is a major sandwhich game coming off playing a big game against Tenn and with Auburn and LSU on deck it wouldn't surprise me if Florida overlooked this one. Keep in mind also, Ole Miss has played 3 pretty good opponents already in: Memphis, Missouri, and Vanderbilt so they've already played a high level of competition. Sure UF is much higher than those teams but the line is already inflated to reflect that. It won't take too much for Ole Miss to cover this game but certainly they can get blown out but I don't forsee that. Backdoor is always open too.....

NIU is more a value play. Personnel wise, NIU has the better of it. They have more talent, more expereience, and the better coach. Sure they have yet to look good and perhaps playing on the road against a very winnable opponent will change that. True Idaho has played well against some high quality competition in USC and WSU but this sets up a nice letdown situation for them as well. Keep in mind, WSU is something of a rivalry game for Idaho (schools only 8 miles apart) so we may see some residual effects. Perhaps of all the games this one is the one I am least confident in but I see a lot of value in a team that opened up -1 and now is getting +3 against an inferior team talent, experience, and coaching wise.

Good luck Ebone....

**stump** · 09-20-07, 10:47 PM

i like mississippi and notre dame, gl

**rjt721** · 09-20-07, 10:54 PM

That ND line sure does seem like an overreaction. I missed the boat on that number, but I agree with the play.

I agree with your Stanford play. They should be able to put up some points, and it's a great lookahead spot for OU with the big Cal game next weekend. I also like how Harbaugh has that team playing hard. I definitely think they're a team to keep an eye on the remainder of the season, as I can foresee a profitable ATS record from here on out.

Iowa St. seems to be getting a bit too much respect for last week's big rivalry victory over Iowa, but they're still a rebuilding team, and I think Toledo will once again finish near the top of the MAC. I had this game as a pk, so I can see the value.

Good luck this weekend BB.

**ritehook** · 09-20-07, 11:39 PM

Not against you on any plays, and with you on Ole Miss.

BTW, appreciate your posting your accurate YTD record, even tho it's not sparkling yet.

That should be mandatory for anyone posting plays.

**onlooker** · 09-20-07, 11:48 PM

Ok, I am confused now. How do you post a half a win, 12.5?

**BuddyBear** · 09-21-07, 12:13 AM

Originally posted by onlòóker

Ok, I am confused now. How do you post a half a win, 12.5?

In week 2 I bet UL-Monroe +27 against Clemson for 1.5 units.......

**onlooker** · 09-21-07, 12:15 AM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

In week 2 I bet UL-Monroe +27 against Clemson for 1.5 units.......

Oh, that doesn't just count as 1 win in the win column? Then +1.5 in the Unit column?

**BuddyBear** · 09-21-07, 12:19 AM

Originally posted by onlòóker

Oh, that doesn't just count as 1 win in the win column? Then +1.5 in the Unit column?

Well technically I guess but it's really the same difference. I subscribe to a flat betting strategy so if i were to decide to bet a single game for 5 unit....then it is like I am betting 5 games.

Plus, and more importantly, I suck at keeping track of units. I just know at the end of the year whether i am up or down. Right now, down.

**onlooker** · 09-21-07, 12:21 AM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

Well technically I guess but it's really the same difference. I subscribe to a flat betting strategy so if i were to decide to bet a single game for 5 unit....then it is like I am betting 5 games.

Plus, and more importantly, I suck at keeping track of units. I just know at the end of the year whether i am up or down. Right now, down.

I hear ya. I was just trying to understand it. Again, good luck Saturday BB.

**bigboydan** · 09-21-07, 12:50 AM

I too took my chances with ND this week double B.

**imgv94** · 09-21-07, 12:20 PM

Easy to keep track of units.

Odds -110
Win +1 Lose -1.1

Odds -145
Win +1 Lose 1.45

Odds +110
Win +1.10 Lose 1

Odds +200
Win +2.00 Lose 1

**pokernut9999** · 09-21-07, 12:40 PM

"They've done well in this role as a home dog in years past and if you look at Ed Oregon's track record, his best game is always his first home game"

They already lost their first home game 38-25 to Missouri in week 2.

**BuddyBear** · 09-21-07, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by pokernut9999

"They've done well in this role as a home dog in years past and if you look at Ed Oregon's track record, his best game is always his first home game"

They already lost their first home game 38-25 to Missouri in week 2.

I should have provided some numbers to back up my assertions....i'll go ahead and provide some then.

In their last 13 games as a home dog, including this year agianst Missouri, Mississippi is 9-4 ATS as a homedog.

I meant to say his first SEC home game is always one of his best. In his previous 2 years, Ole Miss was +14 against Alabama and lost 10-13. The following year they opened up home SEC play against Georgia as +18 homedogs. They lost 9-14.

Both SEC home openers have seen seen Ole Miss as big dogs and in both instance, their opponent did not even score the number of points they were favored by. Not saying Ole Miss is going to win outright or even be competitive, but I like the situation they fall into this week. I think this game will be far more competitive than people think it will be and I'll take my chances with them.

Good luck.....

**BuddyBear** · 09-21-07, 01:19 PM

Originally posted by imgv94

Easy to keep track of units.

Odds -110
Win +1 Lose -1.1

Odds -145
Win +1 Lose 1.45

Odds +110
Win +1.10 Lose 1

Odds +200
Win +2.00 Lose 1

Thanks...i know how to do it but I am just too lazy to do it. You can pretty much guess by my W-L record but if this was baseball I would definitely include a unit number....

**imgv94** · 09-21-07, 01:20 PM

Buddy,

Who are you voting for in 2008?

Barack or Hillary?

**imgv94** · 09-21-07, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

Thanks...i know how to do it but I am just too lazy to do it. You can pretty much guess by my W-L record but if this was baseball I would definitely include a unit number....

I understand J. I have to include my units.

For example I'm 5-5 in the NFL this season. But ahead 4.5 units.

GL my friend.

**BuddyBear** · 09-21-07, 03:03 PM

Originally posted by imgv94

Buddy,

Who are you voting for in 2008?

Barack or Hillary?

Neither. The probability of me voting for Hillary Clinton is next to 0. I'll give a little bit more consideration to Obama since he seems more committed to the progressive agenda but is still struggling in some areas. I'll vote for Dennis Kucinch in the Wisconsin primary for certain though.

I'll definitely be voting for Ralph Nader again in the general election.

**Hemlock21** · 09-21-07, 05:10 PM

Cornhuskers should cover easily in that one. I'm with you on that one Buddy. I had a slight lean on Wyoming though.

GL

**imgv94** · 09-21-07, 06:03 PM

Buddybear,

Don't waste your vote sir.