Teams that blew out opponent last Sat.

LT Profits · 09-10-07, 08:12 AM

That is actually an interesting concept curious. I will see what I could find. My natural gut feeling would be that fading the teams that did the blowing out the next week would be profitable.

LT Profits · 09-10-07, 09:14 AM

First of all, my software has a field for point differential but not for points scored. So I looked up all CFB teams that either won or lost by 50 points or more both SU and ATS since 1985. Interestingly, it seems that BOTH the team that did the blowing out and the team that got blown out have positive numbers the next game! (So much for gut feeling)

First of all, ALL TEAMS that LOST their last game by 50+ points SU are 141-108-6, 56.6% ATS next game.

Also, all HOME TEAMS that WON their last game by 50+ points SU are 109-75-2, 59.2% ATS next game, including 98-58-2, 62.8% as Home Favorites.

nevadaside · 09-10-07, 09:44 AM

LT, is that WinPicks you're using to run those numbers?

LT Profits · 09-10-07, 11:16 AM

You got it nevada.

hhsilver · 09-10-07, 12:50 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

First of all, my software has a field for point differential but not for points scored. So I looked up all CFB teams that either won or lost by 50 points or more both SU and ATS since 1985. Interestingly, it seems that BOTH the team that did the blowing out and the team that got blown out have positive numbers the next game! (So much for gut feeling)

First of all, ALL TEAMS that LOST their last game by 50+ points SU are 141-108-6, 56.6% ATS next game.

Also, all HOME TEAMS that WON their last game by 50+ points SU are 109-75-2, 59.2% ATS next game, including 98-58-2, 62.8% as Home Favorites.

LT, thanks for this info.
I'd be interested in seeing something about the next game following a big upset. A 35 pt fav winning by 50 is no big deal. But a 21 pt fav losing the game is. The above might be more enlightening if you threw out the games where there was a heavy fav.

Can your program provide some data related to the game following big upsets, say fav of > 17 (or whatever number you'd like to use) losing game. Would like to see next game stats ( W or L ATS) for both teams.

thanks

rugbybdyb · 09-10-07, 06:32 PM

Most of the teams that blew other teams out were playing scrubs, I think that the reason the computer programs are showing a positive is because during the blowout the team began to get its chemistry, rythm etc together with a live opponet. Just my oppinion.

curious · 09-10-07, 06:39 PM

Originally posted by rugbybdyb

Most of the teams that blew other teams out were playing scrubs, I think that the reason the computer programs are showing a positive is because during the blowout the team began to get its chemistry, rythm etc together with a live opponet. Just my oppinion.

Here are the matchups. The winning team is in the left hand column, the losing team is in the right hand column. All winners scored at least 50 points. Most of the losers scored < 14, a lot of them scored 0.

Florida Troy
Oklahoma Miami
GA Tech Samford
Kentucky Kent State
Louisville Middle Tenn.
Purdue E. Illinois
Western KY W. Va Tech
Kansas Southeastern Louisiana
Missouri State Tenn Martin
Sacred Heart La Salle
William & Mary VMI
Citadel Webber Int'l
Elon West Virginia Wesleyan

Can someone tell us which of these games would be an upset? And which are vs scrubs?

curious · 09-10-07, 06:59 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

First of all, my software has a field for point differential but not for points scored. So I looked up all CFB teams that either won or lost by 50 points or more both SU and ATS since 1985. Interestingly, it seems that BOTH the team that did the blowing out and the team that got blown out have positive numbers the next game! (So much for gut feeling)

First of all, ALL TEAMS that LOST their last game by 50+ points SU are 141-108-6, 56.6% ATS next game.

Also, all HOME TEAMS that WON their last game by 50+ points SU are 109-75-2, 59.2% ATS next game, including 98-58-2, 62.8% as Home Favorites.

Is 62% enough to overcome the vig?

Can you give us the list for this coming weekend of all teams that are Home favorites and who won their last game by over 50 points and they were a home team? I'm going to start an experiment and bet $100 on each of those teams.

pokernut9999 · 09-10-07, 07:06 PM

Louisville game was not a blowout 58-42 as a 41 pt. favorite.

curious · 09-10-07, 07:12 PM

Originally posted by pokernut9999

Louisville game was not a blowout 58-42 as a 41 pt. favorite.

Thanks for nitpicking. LT didn't use that game anyway, he only used games where the winner won by over 50 points.

pokernut9999 · 09-10-07, 07:21 PM

well half the games you listed are not lined games anyway.

LT Profits · 09-11-07, 12:58 PM

curious,

It looks like two qualifiers this week:

Kansas -21.5
Georgia Tech -7

nevadaside · 09-11-07, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

curious,

It looks like two qualifiers this week:

Kansas -21.5
Georgia Tech -7

Really liking KU this week LT. What's your thoughts other than this threads theory. I know you like the doggies though.

LT Profits · 09-11-07, 01:43 PM

Honestly, I wouldn't bet either one of them! LOL

I am just reporting what the system spit out. I guess I lean Kansas, although I wouldn't give three touchdowns to a girls team.

I acually lean Boston College in the other one, but that is purely on gut as I have yet to cap the games. I will know my plays by tomorrow (Wednesday) night.

sirwinzalot · 09-11-07, 05:54 PM

Was curious on your guys' thoughts on Winpicks. Is this something that is worth the investment for a professional sports gambler like myself?

It looks pretty good. Would like to get some further feedback on Winpicks.

pokernut9999 · 09-11-07, 07:28 PM

I believe both dogs are the here.

curious · 09-11-07, 07:53 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Honestly, I wouldn't bet either one of them! LOL

I am just reporting what the system spit out. I guess I lean Kansas, although I wouldn't give three touchdowns to a girls team.

I acually lean Boston College in the other one, but that is purely on gut as I have yet to cap the games. I will know my plays by tomorrow (Wednesday) night.

After GA Tech squeaked by Samford last week 69-14, I'm thinking they might be a good bet.

Like I said I will bet $100 on each of these teams and keep track of the results.

I'm wondering if the OVER in the Kansas game is a good bet?

pokernut9999 · 09-11-07, 09:35 PM

Tech was playing a division 1aa team

durito · 09-11-07, 10:01 PM

Originally posted by curious

Is 62% enough to overcome the vig?

110/210 = .5238

105/205 = .5122

Wassymac · 09-11-07, 11:06 PM

Originally posted by curious

Here are the matchups. The winning team is in the left hand column, the losing team is in the right hand column. All winners scored at least 50 points. Most of the losers scored < 14, a lot of them scored 0.

Florida Troy
Oklahoma Miami
GA Tech Samford
Kentucky Kent State
Louisville Middle Tenn.
Purdue E. Illinois
Western KY W. Va Tech
Kansas Southeastern Louisiana
Missouri State Tenn Martin
Sacred Heart La Salle
William & Mary VMI
Citadel Webber Int'l
Elon West Virginia Wesleyan

Can someone tell us which of these games would be an upset? And which are vs scrubs?

As it's been mentioned. A lot of these aren't lined games and most of the lined winners of these also blew out opponents in week 1.

Florida, Oklahoma, Ga Tech, Purdue, Kansas all were big winners in both weeks 1 & 2.

Louisville may have scored 50 but since they lack a defense won a close one against Mid Tenn.