Thursday night college football action features a Sun Belt clash between the 6-3 Trojans and the 6-3 Monarchs at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN.
SBR's Isaiah Sirois shares his best bets in his Troy vs Old Dominion prediction:
Over/Under pick: Under 52.5 (-108 via Caesars)
Game prediction: Troy +11.5 (-115 via DraftKings)
"Old Dominion entered conference play projected to be a top contender after it blew out Virginia Tech, took down Liberty, and played Indiana close – but then the wheels fell off. A blowout loss at Marshall followed by another blowout loss at James Madison derailed the team’s campaign for a conference title, and it’s unclear just how good the Monarchs are.
When filtering the advanced stats for conference play (all of the numbers in this article are just from Week 7 onward), these teams aren’t far apart. In offensive points added per play, Troy ranks eighth in the conference (0.18) while Old Dominion ranks 12th (0.09). Defensively, Troy ranks seventh (0.18) while Old Dominion ranks sixth (0.14). Success rate isn’t much different. Troy ranks 12th offensively and eighth defensively; Old Dominion ranks seventh and fifth.
These teams have looked relatively even in conference play, but I’ll give the slight edge to Old Dominion due to the high success rate, conference-leading quarterback by passing efficiency in Colton Joseph, and home-field advantage. Still, are all of those factors worth 11.5 points? I’m not sold. Neither is the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), which makes this Old Dominion -9.3.
Troy does a few things really well, and they make this line exciting. The Trojans lead the Sun Belt in defensive line yards and are the only team allowing less than 2.5 per play. Old Dominion is fifth-worst at generating offensive line yards and is second-worst in defensive line yards. That gives Troy an interesting angle offensively as it ranks third in power run success rate (73.3%).
An early Old Dominion lead could put Troy in the tough spot of trying to play from behind, but I’m willing to take the risk on them for 11.5 points."
Best prop bet: Tae Meadows Over 63.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)
"Troy running back Tae Meadows will benefit from facing an Old Dominion defensive front that struggles to control the line of scrimmage. Meadows’ offensive line isn’t giving him a ton of help, but if there were ever an opponent for them to look good against, it’s this one. Troy has played three of the top five Sun Belt defenses by line yards in just five conference games.
The two games versus bad defensive lines speak volumes. Meadows missed the action against Louisiana’s awful defensive front, but his backup, Jordan Lovett, ran for 113. When Meadows played against South Alabama’s similarly bad unit, he ran wild for 79 yards. The Trojans also won both games outright and ran at least 39 times in each contest.
With Meadows’ rushing prop total set to a reasonable 63.5, a number he cleared against FCS Nicholls State, Clemson, Buffalo, South Alabama, and UL-Monroe, let’s buy the Over"
Troy vs. Old Dominion best odds
Troy vs. Old Dominion betting trends
️Troy vs. Old Dominion weather
The weather is unlikely to play a significant factor in Thursday’s Troy vs. Old Dominion game. The forecast calls for temperatures in the low 50s at kickoff that will dip into the 40s and no precipitation. Double-digit wind gusts in the low teens could be a factor, but are unlikely to do much.
SBR's Isaiah Sirois shares his best bets in his Troy vs Old Dominion prediction:
Over/Under pick: Under 52.5 (-108 via Caesars)
Game prediction: Troy +11.5 (-115 via DraftKings)
"Old Dominion entered conference play projected to be a top contender after it blew out Virginia Tech, took down Liberty, and played Indiana close – but then the wheels fell off. A blowout loss at Marshall followed by another blowout loss at James Madison derailed the team’s campaign for a conference title, and it’s unclear just how good the Monarchs are.
When filtering the advanced stats for conference play (all of the numbers in this article are just from Week 7 onward), these teams aren’t far apart. In offensive points added per play, Troy ranks eighth in the conference (0.18) while Old Dominion ranks 12th (0.09). Defensively, Troy ranks seventh (0.18) while Old Dominion ranks sixth (0.14). Success rate isn’t much different. Troy ranks 12th offensively and eighth defensively; Old Dominion ranks seventh and fifth.
These teams have looked relatively even in conference play, but I’ll give the slight edge to Old Dominion due to the high success rate, conference-leading quarterback by passing efficiency in Colton Joseph, and home-field advantage. Still, are all of those factors worth 11.5 points? I’m not sold. Neither is the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), which makes this Old Dominion -9.3.
Troy does a few things really well, and they make this line exciting. The Trojans lead the Sun Belt in defensive line yards and are the only team allowing less than 2.5 per play. Old Dominion is fifth-worst at generating offensive line yards and is second-worst in defensive line yards. That gives Troy an interesting angle offensively as it ranks third in power run success rate (73.3%).
An early Old Dominion lead could put Troy in the tough spot of trying to play from behind, but I’m willing to take the risk on them for 11.5 points."
Best prop bet: Tae Meadows Over 63.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)
"Troy running back Tae Meadows will benefit from facing an Old Dominion defensive front that struggles to control the line of scrimmage. Meadows’ offensive line isn’t giving him a ton of help, but if there were ever an opponent for them to look good against, it’s this one. Troy has played three of the top five Sun Belt defenses by line yards in just five conference games.
The two games versus bad defensive lines speak volumes. Meadows missed the action against Louisiana’s awful defensive front, but his backup, Jordan Lovett, ran for 113. When Meadows played against South Alabama’s similarly bad unit, he ran wild for 79 yards. The Trojans also won both games outright and ran at least 39 times in each contest.
With Meadows’ rushing prop total set to a reasonable 63.5, a number he cleared against FCS Nicholls State, Clemson, Buffalo, South Alabama, and UL-Monroe, let’s buy the Over"
Troy vs. Old Dominion best odds
Troy vs. Old Dominion betting trends
️Troy vs. Old Dominion weather
The weather is unlikely to play a significant factor in Thursday’s Troy vs. Old Dominion game. The forecast calls for temperatures in the low 50s at kickoff that will dip into the 40s and no precipitation. Double-digit wind gusts in the low teens could be a factor, but are unlikely to do much.