Wednesday MACtion Predictions

SBR Andy · 2025-11-12T18:24:50+00:00

SBR's Phil Wood shares his Buffalo vs Central Michigan prediction:

Over/Under pick: Under 42.5 (-105 via Caesars)

Game prediction: Buffalo moneyline (+100 via BetMGM)

"The one-dimensional nature of the Central Michigan offense is the main reason I’m taking Buffalo to win this game. Central Michigan is averaging 185.3 rushing yards per game, but the Chippewas have had just one game in which their quarterback threw for more than 152 yards.

Buffalo is allowing just 139.3 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry.

Buffalo is averaging just 24.8 points per game, which ranks 88th in the nation. The Bulls have scored fewer than 30 points in all but three games this season, and they’ve been held to 20 or less in four games

But Central Michigan is allowing 24.0 points per game, and it gave up at least that many to the two best MAC teams the Chippewas have faced. Both of those games resulted in losses. Buffalo’s balanced offensive attack, with 32.6 pass attempts and 34.9 rushes per game, will find enough success against a lackluster defense, as the Bulls’ own defense, allowing just 19.6 per game, holds Central Michigan in check."

Best prop bet: Nahree Biggins Under 41.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

"While Angel Flores leads the team with 519 yards, the success of the team’s second-leading rusher, Biggins, is more important to the outcome of this game.

Biggins is averaging 5.3 yards per carry, but he’s rushed for 43 yards or fewer in three of his five MAC games, and he ran for 36 yards or fewer in both MAC losses. This season, he’s managed 43 or fewer yards in six of nine games, topping that mark just once against teams allowing fewer than 4.0 yards per carry.

Biggins has yet to top 40 yards in a game where he doesn’t carry the ball at least 10 times, something he’s only done four times, and he has nine or fewer attempts in all four Central Michigan losses."

Buffalo vs. Central Michigan best odds

Buffalo vs. Central Michigan betting trends

️ Buffalo vs. Central Michigan weather

Throwing the ball may be a little tricky, with wind gusts up to 28 mph. However, there’s only a 3% chance of rain, so while it will be a cold 31 degrees, the field conditions shouldn’t be an issue.

SBR Andy · 2025-11-12T18:28:08+00:00

SBR's Mike Spector offers some betting insight in his Northern Illinois vs UMass prediction:

Over/Under pick: Under 43.5 (-115 via DraftKings)

Game prediction: UMass +11.5 (-110 via FanDuel)

"Northern Illinois was non-competitive as a two-touchdown underdog at Toledo last week. The Huskies fell into a 28-3 halftime hole, and the problems only compounded in the second half. While Northern Illinois may not be built to play catch-up, its offensive issues are concerning leading into this matchup.

Getting behind early was the worst possible scenario for Northern Illinois last week. Quarterback Josh Holst’s 689 passing yards are the fewest among regular MAC starting quarterbacks. And after he started just 5-of-13 for 87 yards last week, he was benched for Brady Davidson, who managed just 3.4 yards per attempt on 16 throws.

Despite all of that, the Huskies remained insistent on getting their running game going, with 36 rushing attempts to 29 passing attempts. Northern Illinois had averaged five yards per carry in every MAC game this season up to that point, but could only muster 1.7 yards per carry against a Toledo defense that ranked outside the top 100 in Success Rate allowed entering that matchup.

UMass has lost its games by an average of more than four touchdowns per contest, and its minus-27.7 scoring margin was second-worst to Oklahoma State before last week’s 34-point loss to Akron. But perhaps Toledo gave UMass a blueprint to slowing down Northern Illinois, and the Huskies’ quarterback issues inspire no confidence to back them to cover."

Best prop bet: First-half Under 22.5 (-122 via FanDuel)

"If Northern Illinois makes the change to Brady Davidson as its starting quarterback this week, expect a conservative game plan early. Davidson led the Huskies on touchdown drives on their first two possessions in an early October start, but the offense stalled from there and totaled 84 yards of offense the rest of the game.

Northern Illinois will likely be content to rely on a defense that entered last week ranked 54th in Success Rate and 11th in EPA Per Play allowed. UMass’ offense entered last week going three-and-out on 46% of its drives in MAC play, and I do not see either team opening up its offense unless it is forced to late.

I would not put anyone off backing the first-half Under of 21.5 at -110 odds at the low end of the market, as 22 is not exactly a key number in football betting. Nevertheless, I am taking the extra point in value at FanDuel."

Northern Illinois vs. UMass best odds

Northern Illinois vs. UMass betting trends

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Northern Illinois vs. UMass weather

Temperatures will drop into the mid 30s in Amherst on Wednesday night. Wind gusts will die down throughout the day and blow at a max of 13 mph during game time, and there is a limited chance of precipitation (15%).

SBR Andy · 2025-11-12T18:33:18+00:00

SBR's Isaiah breaks down the action in his Toledo vs Miami (OH) prediction:

Over/Under pick: Over 45.5 (-105 via DraftKings)

Game prediction: Miami (OH) +4 (-108 via DraftKings)

"In a pivotal battle near the top of the MAC, Toledo looks to bounce back from a 3-2 start in conference play by taking on Miami. While the results haven’t been great for the Rockets, the numbers have been. Toledo leads the MAC in the FPI, the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), and Jeff Sagarin’s rankings. Miami (OH) ranks third in all three.

Toledo’s losses are forgivable. They both came by a single score on the road. In the five-point loss to Bowling Green, Toledo won the yardage battle by over 200, but a pivotal fumble at their own one-yard line sunk them. Miami’s lone conference loss to Ohio is also forgivable, as it was also a one-score road loss, but the RedHawks lost the yardage battle.

I’m bullish on Toledo and quarterback Tucker Gleason, who leads the MAC in passing efficiency (151.2), but I’m not sure the Rockets should be getting this many points on the road. Gleason’s career home passing efficiency (164.8) and road passing efficiency (124.2) point to him relying on a friendly home environment. Though it’s a smaller sample, that split is even more egregious this year (205.4 to 110.1).

We’ve also got a Miami (OH) team that routinely beats the market. Since head coach Chuck Martin took over in 2014, the RedHawks are 80-60-1 against the spread and are 55-35-1 against the spread in conference play. They’re also 12-8-1 against the spread as home underdogs. Meanwhile, Toledo head coach Jason Candle is 23-30 against the spread in road games and 15-20 against the spread when listed as a road favorite."

Best prop bet: Dequan Finn Over 45.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

"Miami (OH) quarterback Dequan Finn, formerly a five-year player at Toledo, returned to the MAC after one season at Baylor to take over the starting job here in Oxford. While both sides will be quite familiar with each other, I have some doubts about Toledo’s defense, especially versus mobile quarterbacks.

Mobile quarterbacks have been a problem for Toledo this year. In both of the team’s conference losses, the opposing quarterback led the way in rushing yards. Wazzu’s Zevi Eckhaus did the same in another road game that Toledo dropped two weeks ago, racking up a whopping 74 yards on the ground.

Finn averages 49.4 rushing yards per game and has at least 50 rushing yards in four of his five conference games, including both home games."

Toledo vs. Miami (OH) odds

Toledo vs. Miami (OH) betting trends

️ Toledo vs. Miami (OH) weather

The weather may play somewhat of a factor in Wednesday’s Toledo vs. Miami (OH) game. While the chance of precipitation is 0%, double-digit wind gusts are a risk, and the temperature will steadily tick toward freezing over the course of the evening.