The 5-3 Tigers begin life without Brian Kelly on Saturday when they travel to Tuscaloosa to take on the 7-1 Crimson Tide at 7:30 PM ET on ABC.
SBR's Mike Spector previews the matchup in his LSU vs Alabama prediction:
Over/Under pick: Under 49.5 (-105 via FanDuel)
Game prediction: LSU +10 (-110 via Caesars)
"Alabama enters amid a 23-game home winning streak against SEC opponents, and has covered the spread in each of its last seven home games. But I am fading this trend and backing the one that says that over the last three years, underdogs led by interim coaches are covering at a 64% clip. Perhaps a strong showing could change Wilson's odds of being LSU's next head coach.
I am not declaring that the sky is falling on the LSU program, even though it will be looking for a new head coach this offseason, given that it has lost two road games to top-10 teams by a combined 12 points. Alabama has a top-six defense in drive efficiency surrendered, but LSU’s is in the ballpark, ranked 42nd, and even better at No. 4 on a per-play basis.
What has gotten the Tigers into trouble is that they are the worst defense in the conference on third down, and the bottom four in third-down conversions allowed through the air. Conversely, Alabama’s offense converts 52% of its third-down opportunities in SEC play (second behind Arkansas).
LSU is also the worst third-down offense in the SEC, converting at a 28.8% rate. But I expect regression in that area, and the Tigers should be able to hang in this game if they can improve upon their 14th-best SEC ranking in scoring touchdowns within an opponent’s 25-yard line.
Alabama allows touchdowns on just 55% of opponents’ red zone trips. That is why I am also making a small play on the Under, which has cashed in each of Alabama’s last four home games."
Best prop bet: Ty Simpson Under 272.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel)
"The way to beat LSU this year has been on the ground, as the interior of its defensive line is the weakest unit. Meanwhile, the Tigers rank fourth in the SEC in passing yards per game allowed, and is similar to Alabama’s secondary with both allowing just over three yards per attempt.
LSU is one of three SEC teams with more interceptions than passing touchdowns allowed. Therefore, I expect a low volume passing day from Simpson, and for him to finish with 253 or fewer passing yards for the fourth straight conference game."
LSU vs. Alabama odds
LSU vs. Alabama betting trends
️
LSU vs. Alabama weather
Temperatures will be in the mid-50s in Tuscaloosa on Saturday night. Neither wind nor rain should be an issue, as the wind is steady at 2 mph and there's only a 4% chance of precipitation.
SBR's Mike Spector previews the matchup in his LSU vs Alabama prediction:
Over/Under pick: Under 49.5 (-105 via FanDuel)
Game prediction: LSU +10 (-110 via Caesars)
"Alabama enters amid a 23-game home winning streak against SEC opponents, and has covered the spread in each of its last seven home games. But I am fading this trend and backing the one that says that over the last three years, underdogs led by interim coaches are covering at a 64% clip. Perhaps a strong showing could change Wilson's odds of being LSU's next head coach.
I am not declaring that the sky is falling on the LSU program, even though it will be looking for a new head coach this offseason, given that it has lost two road games to top-10 teams by a combined 12 points. Alabama has a top-six defense in drive efficiency surrendered, but LSU’s is in the ballpark, ranked 42nd, and even better at No. 4 on a per-play basis.
What has gotten the Tigers into trouble is that they are the worst defense in the conference on third down, and the bottom four in third-down conversions allowed through the air. Conversely, Alabama’s offense converts 52% of its third-down opportunities in SEC play (second behind Arkansas).
LSU is also the worst third-down offense in the SEC, converting at a 28.8% rate. But I expect regression in that area, and the Tigers should be able to hang in this game if they can improve upon their 14th-best SEC ranking in scoring touchdowns within an opponent’s 25-yard line.
Alabama allows touchdowns on just 55% of opponents’ red zone trips. That is why I am also making a small play on the Under, which has cashed in each of Alabama’s last four home games."
Best prop bet: Ty Simpson Under 272.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel)
"The way to beat LSU this year has been on the ground, as the interior of its defensive line is the weakest unit. Meanwhile, the Tigers rank fourth in the SEC in passing yards per game allowed, and is similar to Alabama’s secondary with both allowing just over three yards per attempt.
LSU is one of three SEC teams with more interceptions than passing touchdowns allowed. Therefore, I expect a low volume passing day from Simpson, and for him to finish with 253 or fewer passing yards for the fourth straight conference game."
LSU vs. Alabama odds
LSU vs. Alabama betting trends
️
LSU vs. Alabama weather
Temperatures will be in the mid-50s in Tuscaloosa on Saturday night. Neither wind nor rain should be an issue, as the wind is steady at 2 mph and there's only a 4% chance of precipitation.