The Tigers look to stay in the playoff conversation as they take on the Owls on Friday night at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN2. SBR's Isaiah previews the matchup in his Memphis vs Rice prediction:
Over/Under pick: Over 49.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Game prediction: Memphis -14 (-108 via DraftKings)
"After losing four-year starter Seth Henigan at quarterback, Memphis has turned to transfer (and sixth-year player) Brendon Lewis, and, at least so far, the results are encouraging. Lewis is on pace for his best season in passing efficiency score (146.2), right on pace with Henigan’s career averages, and is adding plenty of value on the ground. Head coach Ryan Silverfield continues to push this program into the highest level of the Group of Five.
On the other side of this matchup, much-maligned Rice has already matched its win total from last season under first-year head coach Scott Abell. Rice doesn’t ask for much from its quarterback, Chase Jenkins, as a passer. He has attempted only 111 passes with an efficiency score of 138.7. The offense runs through the ground game: Rice ranks fourth in rushing play percentage (73.7%) and 15th in rushing yards per game (208.7).
As a 14-point betting favorite, Memphis will have to do a lot to cover, and there is some risk of a big-win hangover following the victory over USF – and a lookahead stumble before next week’s game versus Tulane. But because of the loss to UAB before the South Florida game, Silverfield should have his squad locked in because another stumble would cost this team its shot at the postseason.
The good news for Memphis is that Rice’s run-heavy offense doesn’t generate explosive plays, but its defense allows plenty of them. Rice is a bottom-five team in explosiveness generated and allowed. These issues allowed Houston to beat them by 24 points and UTSA to beat them by 48 points. Both of those teams had veteran quarterbacks like Lewis who won’t leave easy points on the board. Even Navy’s Blake Horvath threw for 172 yards on only 12 attempts.
Jeff Sagarin’s rankings favor Memphis by 21. The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) favors Memphis by 17.5. I just don’t see Memphis fumbling an opportunity to make the college football playoff with a dud game versus Rice following such a massive victory over USF."
Player prop bet: Quinton Jackson Under 60.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)
"Rice running back Quinton Jackson reminded us how good he can be last week versus UConn with 168 rushing yards, 80 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. He now takes on a solid Memphis defensive front that ranks 71st nationally in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.3). This front also ranks third-best in the American by stuff rate (24%) and fourth-best by defensive line yards (2.6).
Jackson’s best games on the ground have all come against teams that are far worse in those metrics. Over his two starts versus teams that are 75th or better in yards allowed per rush attempt, Jackson posted rushing totals of 52 (Houston) and 60 (Navy). Let’s back him for another dud game in what should be a blowout."
Over/Under pick: Over 49.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Game prediction: Memphis -14 (-108 via DraftKings)
"After losing four-year starter Seth Henigan at quarterback, Memphis has turned to transfer (and sixth-year player) Brendon Lewis, and, at least so far, the results are encouraging. Lewis is on pace for his best season in passing efficiency score (146.2), right on pace with Henigan’s career averages, and is adding plenty of value on the ground. Head coach Ryan Silverfield continues to push this program into the highest level of the Group of Five.
On the other side of this matchup, much-maligned Rice has already matched its win total from last season under first-year head coach Scott Abell. Rice doesn’t ask for much from its quarterback, Chase Jenkins, as a passer. He has attempted only 111 passes with an efficiency score of 138.7. The offense runs through the ground game: Rice ranks fourth in rushing play percentage (73.7%) and 15th in rushing yards per game (208.7).
As a 14-point betting favorite, Memphis will have to do a lot to cover, and there is some risk of a big-win hangover following the victory over USF – and a lookahead stumble before next week’s game versus Tulane. But because of the loss to UAB before the South Florida game, Silverfield should have his squad locked in because another stumble would cost this team its shot at the postseason.
The good news for Memphis is that Rice’s run-heavy offense doesn’t generate explosive plays, but its defense allows plenty of them. Rice is a bottom-five team in explosiveness generated and allowed. These issues allowed Houston to beat them by 24 points and UTSA to beat them by 48 points. Both of those teams had veteran quarterbacks like Lewis who won’t leave easy points on the board. Even Navy’s Blake Horvath threw for 172 yards on only 12 attempts.
Jeff Sagarin’s rankings favor Memphis by 21. The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) favors Memphis by 17.5. I just don’t see Memphis fumbling an opportunity to make the college football playoff with a dud game versus Rice following such a massive victory over USF."
Player prop bet: Quinton Jackson Under 60.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)
"Rice running back Quinton Jackson reminded us how good he can be last week versus UConn with 168 rushing yards, 80 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. He now takes on a solid Memphis defensive front that ranks 71st nationally in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.3). This front also ranks third-best in the American by stuff rate (24%) and fourth-best by defensive line yards (2.6).
Jackson’s best games on the ground have all come against teams that are far worse in those metrics. Over his two starts versus teams that are 75th or better in yards allowed per rush attempt, Jackson posted rushing totals of 52 (Houston) and 60 (Navy). Let’s back him for another dud game in what should be a blowout."