The Green Wave and Roadrunners do battle in AAC action Thursday night at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN. SBR's Mike Spector takes a look at the matchup in his Tulane vs UTSA prediction:
Over/Under pick: Over 55.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Game prediction: UTSA +4 (-112 via DraftKings)
"The Alamodome has hosted plenty of shootouts. The three games played there have all cashed the Over, averaging 73.7 points per game. But I am more intrigued by this relatively low point spread given that College Football Playoff contender Tulane has won three straight games, while UTSA is coming off a 38-point loss.
UTSA has won 23 consecutive home games against conference opponents, and has covered each of the last seven such games.
Meanwhile, Tulane is coming off a unique prep for Army, a game it won by one touchdown at home. The small margin is uninspiring considering it faced a run-heavy Black Knights offense that had ranked outside the top 90 in Rush Explosiveness and Rush Success Rate.
UTSA was a similar four-point underdog as it was in this spot in its last game against North Texas, which it lost 55-17. But North Texas was motivated coming off its first loss, and the Roadrunners did not help themselves with three third-quarter fumbles that took a close halftime deficit and ballooned it to a four-touchdown margin."
Player prop bet: Robert Henry 110+ rushing yards (+100 via bet365)
"UTSA’s Robert Henry ranks third among all FBS running backs with 868 rushing yards.
Entering its last game, UTSA ranked second nationally in Rush EPA, and had run designed inside zone concepts more than any team in the country. Even in the 38-point loss to North Texas, the Roadrunners found tremendous success on the ground, running for 214 yards and 6.7 yards per carry.
Henry averaged 11.5 yards per carry on 12 attempts, and could have run for much more than the 138 yards had game script not forced a more pass-heavy attack."
Over/Under pick: Over 55.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Game prediction: UTSA +4 (-112 via DraftKings)
"The Alamodome has hosted plenty of shootouts. The three games played there have all cashed the Over, averaging 73.7 points per game. But I am more intrigued by this relatively low point spread given that College Football Playoff contender Tulane has won three straight games, while UTSA is coming off a 38-point loss.
UTSA has won 23 consecutive home games against conference opponents, and has covered each of the last seven such games.
Meanwhile, Tulane is coming off a unique prep for Army, a game it won by one touchdown at home. The small margin is uninspiring considering it faced a run-heavy Black Knights offense that had ranked outside the top 90 in Rush Explosiveness and Rush Success Rate.
UTSA was a similar four-point underdog as it was in this spot in its last game against North Texas, which it lost 55-17. But North Texas was motivated coming off its first loss, and the Roadrunners did not help themselves with three third-quarter fumbles that took a close halftime deficit and ballooned it to a four-touchdown margin."
Player prop bet: Robert Henry 110+ rushing yards (+100 via bet365)
"UTSA’s Robert Henry ranks third among all FBS running backs with 868 rushing yards.
Entering its last game, UTSA ranked second nationally in Rush EPA, and had run designed inside zone concepts more than any team in the country. Even in the 38-point loss to North Texas, the Roadrunners found tremendous success on the ground, running for 214 yards and 6.7 yards per carry.
Henry averaged 11.5 yards per carry on 12 attempts, and could have run for much more than the 138 yards had game script not forced a more pass-heavy attack."