The lone CFB game Thursday features a Sun Belt clash between the Jaguars and Panthers at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN2. SBR's Mike Spector breaks down the matchup in his South Alabama vs Georgia State prediction:
Game prediction: South Alabama -6.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
"South Alabama is a much better team than its 1-6 record suggests. The Jaguars lost by two points to a good Tulane team, led at halftime against Coastal Carolina before a second-half collapse and played Auburn tough on the road. In the last two weeks, they lost to a walk-off field goal and in overtime.
Letdowns in close games might have many fading South Alabama, but I see this game as a springboard opportunity for a successful final stretch.
South Alabama amassed 200-plus rushing yards in back-to-back weeks before its 175-yard output against Arkansas State on Tuesday.
Not rushing for 200 yards against a Red Wolves defense that had ranked 118th in Rushing Success Rate allowed could be perceived as disappointing. However, it still finished with two players averaging 7.7 or more yards per carry on combined 14 attempts.
Meanwhile, Georgia State has covered the spread in just one of seven games this season, allowing 208 rushing yards and 5.0 yards per carry in a 17-point loss (as 6.5-point underdogs) last week. Facing a physical South Alabama team with less than a week to prepare should again doom the Panthers."
Over/Under pick: Under 55.5 (-107 via Caesars)
"South Alabama and Georgia State have scored 58 and 51 points, respectively, through three conference games.
South Alabama entered last week with the fourth-best secondary unit in the conference, per PFF. The Jaguars allowed 4.6 yards per pass attempt last week, while surrendering just their eighth passing touchdown of the season.
The unit held up considering they faced a heavy volume of passes (45) versus runs (32).
The Jaguars should make Georgia State one-dimensional, especially since they entered last week ranked 17th in Passing EPA allowed and in the top 45 in pass explosives allowed."
Game prediction: South Alabama -6.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
"South Alabama is a much better team than its 1-6 record suggests. The Jaguars lost by two points to a good Tulane team, led at halftime against Coastal Carolina before a second-half collapse and played Auburn tough on the road. In the last two weeks, they lost to a walk-off field goal and in overtime.
Letdowns in close games might have many fading South Alabama, but I see this game as a springboard opportunity for a successful final stretch.
South Alabama amassed 200-plus rushing yards in back-to-back weeks before its 175-yard output against Arkansas State on Tuesday.
Not rushing for 200 yards against a Red Wolves defense that had ranked 118th in Rushing Success Rate allowed could be perceived as disappointing. However, it still finished with two players averaging 7.7 or more yards per carry on combined 14 attempts.
Meanwhile, Georgia State has covered the spread in just one of seven games this season, allowing 208 rushing yards and 5.0 yards per carry in a 17-point loss (as 6.5-point underdogs) last week. Facing a physical South Alabama team with less than a week to prepare should again doom the Panthers."
Over/Under pick: Under 55.5 (-107 via Caesars)
"South Alabama and Georgia State have scored 58 and 51 points, respectively, through three conference games.
South Alabama entered last week with the fourth-best secondary unit in the conference, per PFF. The Jaguars allowed 4.6 yards per pass attempt last week, while surrendering just their eighth passing touchdown of the season.
The unit held up considering they faced a heavy volume of passes (45) versus runs (32).
The Jaguars should make Georgia State one-dimensional, especially since they entered last week ranked 17th in Passing EPA allowed and in the top 45 in pass explosives allowed."