The Bill Belichick saga continues on Friday night when the Tar Heels travel across the country to take on the Golden Bears at 10:30 PM ET on ESPN. SBR's Rob Paul shares his best bets in his North Carolina vs California prediction:
Game prediction: California -9.5 (-124 via FanDuel)
"It looked like Cal might be plateauing under Wilcox after the team finished under .500 in five straight seasons. But thanks to former blue-chip recruit JKS leaving Oregon after less than a month to join the Golden Bears, everything has changed in Berkeley.
Cal is 4-2 and has won two of its three Power Four games, with both wins coming as an underdog. While the Golden Bears' offense has been inconsistent, JKS' arm talent is undeniable, and he should put pressure on a bad North Carolina pass defense.
The freshman is No. 13 in the P4 in big-time throws (11) and has enough weapons - Trond Grizzell, Jacob De Jesus, Mason Mini - to take advantage of a North Carolina defense that's No. 95 in EPA per pass. But the flip side of this matchup is the bigger reason UNC is in trouble.
North Carolina's offense is a mess after Belichick and Lombardi missed severely with their approach of building this team via the transfer portal. Quarterback has been a big issue with both Gio Lopez and Max Johnson playing this season, resulting in UNC having the No. 125 offense in EPA per pass.
With Cal's defense being one of the better units in the ACC, the Tar Heels won't score enough to cover. If North Carolina takes its ATS record to 0-4 against the P4, a $10 bet pays an $8.06 profit.
And remember, don't underestimate this Cal home crowd ... the Calgorithm effect is real."
Over/Under pick: Under 47.5 (-110 via bet365)
"North Carolina is averaging 11 points per game against Power Four teams and is ranked No. 110 on offense by SP+. The only teams the Tar Heels have scored more than 20 points against this season was Richmond, an FCS program. That's why the Under is the play, Cal isn't going to let this team light it up.
The Golden Bears are No. 30 in the nation in EPA per pass on defense and allowing just 22.5 points per game. And while JKS is a talented young QB, he's only led Cal to 25.3 points per game against P4 teams.
Both of these offenses are among the bottom three in the ACC in yards per game, so don't tune in to expect much scoring."
Game prediction: California -9.5 (-124 via FanDuel)
"It looked like Cal might be plateauing under Wilcox after the team finished under .500 in five straight seasons. But thanks to former blue-chip recruit JKS leaving Oregon after less than a month to join the Golden Bears, everything has changed in Berkeley.
Cal is 4-2 and has won two of its three Power Four games, with both wins coming as an underdog. While the Golden Bears' offense has been inconsistent, JKS' arm talent is undeniable, and he should put pressure on a bad North Carolina pass defense.
The freshman is No. 13 in the P4 in big-time throws (11) and has enough weapons - Trond Grizzell, Jacob De Jesus, Mason Mini - to take advantage of a North Carolina defense that's No. 95 in EPA per pass. But the flip side of this matchup is the bigger reason UNC is in trouble.
North Carolina's offense is a mess after Belichick and Lombardi missed severely with their approach of building this team via the transfer portal. Quarterback has been a big issue with both Gio Lopez and Max Johnson playing this season, resulting in UNC having the No. 125 offense in EPA per pass.
With Cal's defense being one of the better units in the ACC, the Tar Heels won't score enough to cover. If North Carolina takes its ATS record to 0-4 against the P4, a $10 bet pays an $8.06 profit.
And remember, don't underestimate this Cal home crowd ... the Calgorithm effect is real."
Over/Under pick: Under 47.5 (-110 via bet365)
"North Carolina is averaging 11 points per game against Power Four teams and is ranked No. 110 on offense by SP+. The only teams the Tar Heels have scored more than 20 points against this season was Richmond, an FCS program. That's why the Under is the play, Cal isn't going to let this team light it up.
The Golden Bears are No. 30 in the nation in EPA per pass on defense and allowing just 22.5 points per game. And while JKS is a talented young QB, he's only led Cal to 25.3 points per game against P4 teams.
Both of these offenses are among the bottom three in the ACC in yards per game, so don't tune in to expect much scoring."