#11 Tennessee vs #6 Alabama Picks

SBR Andy · 10-14-25, 02:44 PM

SBR's Isaiah Sirois takes a look at the matchup in his early Tennessee vs Alabama prediction:

Alabama -8 (-110 BetMGM)

"Handicapping Saturday’s Tennessee vs. Alabama game is a bit tricky. On the one hand, Alabama nearly lost to Florida State while Tennessee nearly beat Georgia. On the other hand, Alabama has handled every SEC opponent capably since then, and Tennessee’s quality loss to Georgia looks increasingly suspect as the Bulldogs have underwhelmed every week. But as long as the Tide don’t return to their inefficient ways from Week 1, Alabama should win and cover.

Tennessee deserves plenty of credit for overcoming the shock departure of quarterback Nico Iamaleava, but his replacement, Joey Aguilar, probably won’t deliver an upset on the Third Saturday of October. Aguilar ranks 19th in passing efficiency score (162.3), which trails Alabama’s Ty Simpson (172.4), who leads the conference in the metric. Worse, Aguilar has thrown five interceptions to Simpson’s one.

You just can’t turn the ball over and expect to cover against Alabama in Bryant-Denny Stadium. Vanderbilt learned that the hard way just a few weeks ago. For his career, Aguilar is a far worse quarterback on the road – his home passing efficiency score (170.7) and interception rate (1.8%) are far, far better than his road passing efficiency score (128.3) and total interception rate (3.7%).

I doubt we get under 7 for this one, so either hold and hope the public hammers Tennessee (and drops the number in the process) or commit to the current number of -8 and hope the market wisens up to Aguilar’s brutal home-away splits."

SBR Andy · 10-16-25, 12:01 PM

SBR's Mike Spector is also backing the Tide here along with the over posted on the NCAAF Picks page:

Alabama -7.5 (-110)

"Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer is 14-2 SU in ranked matchups, including winning six of seven while with the Crimson Tide. And while Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel is 2-2 against Alabama, both of those wins came at home, while his teams lost at Bryant-Denny Stadium by an average of 21 points in 2021 and 2023.

Over 58.5 (-110)

"Tennessee has been playing with fire en route to a 5-1 record and top 11 AP ranking. The Volunteers have allowed at least 24 points in four of their wins, and 44 in their lone loss to Georgia. Those defensive issues are not likely to correct themselves against an Alabama team with Heisman Trophy contender Ty Simpson and his 16-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

SBR Andy · 10-17-25, 10:45 AM

SBR's Rob Paul expects a big day out of the Alabama QB as part of his best NCAAF player props for Week 8:

Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama: Over 2.5 passing TDs (-105 BetMGM)

"No passer in the country is playing quarterback at a higher level than Simpson right now. He's got the second-shortest Heisman Trophy odds (+380), and is my pick to win the award at this point. Don't let his inconsistent Week 1 play on the road against Florida State cloud your vision; this is a potential first-round talent.

Simpson's ability pre-snap is arguably the best in the country, and it's a huge reason why he's the only QB in the country with at least 16 TD passes and fewer than two interceptions. It's not hard to see he's the son of a coach (his dad is UT Martin head coach Jason Simpson), with the former blue-chip recruit as efficient as he is aggressive - Simpson is the only P4 QB with a big-time throw rate of at least 6% and an adjusted completion rate of at least 80%.

While Tennessee poses a challenge for Alabama, it's also an opportunity for Simpson to put on a show against a Vols team that's been prone to shootouts due to poor defensive play (it ranks No. 98 in EPA per pass on defense)."