One of the biggest Group of Five games of the season goes Friday night when the Bulls and Mean Green face off at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN2. SBR's Rob Paul breaks down the matchup in his South Florida vs North Texas prediction.
Over/Under pick: Under 66.5 (-108 via DraftKings)
Game pick: North Texas ML (-108 via FanDuel)
"This is set to be one of the best weeknight games of the season between two programs that are clearly among the 10 best G5 teams in the country. That's why this line has already been moving plenty at betting sites. South Florida opened as a 2.5-point betting favorite, but some books now list the Bulls as a 1.5-point underdog while others are offering North Texas +1.
Still, I'm as confident in backing North Texas to win outright as I am about any pick I'm making in Week 7. The Mean Green have quietly been praying on their opponents and are rated as the second-best G5 team in the country by SP+ (No. 43). That's thanks in large part to an offense that Mestermaker leads, the running back combo of Caleb Hawkins and Makenzie McGill, and a deep pass-catching corps.
Morris' offense is No. 27 in EPA per pass and No. 15 in EPA per rush, which doesn't bode well for a South Florida defense that's No. 61 in SP+. And while Alex Golesh's hyper-fast attack showcases how dynamic Brown is behind center, there's not much around him. Brown could struggle against a North Texas defense that allows just 316.2 yards per game."
Player prop bet: Drew Mestemaker Over 1.5 passing TDs (-135 via BetMGM)
"The story of Mestemaker is almost unbelievable. A no-star recruit who walked on at North Texas after being a backup in high school, getting his shot as a freshman in the Mean Green's bowl game last year due to starter Chandler Morris entering the transfer portal. Then throwing for 393 yards and two touchdowns in his first start since the ninth grade.
Mestemaker then won the QB1 job coming into this season and has thrown 11 touchdowns to zero interceptions in five games, including two-plus three times. The redshirt freshman is one of just two QBs in the country with a big-time throw rate of at least 6% with a turnover-worthy play rate below 1%. He's as efficient as they come and can stress a South Florida defense that's ranked No. 73 in EPA per pass.
Morris has logged a long history of helping unheralded QBs develop (Baker Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes, Cam Ward, John Mateer), and Mestemaker could be next."
Over/Under pick: Under 66.5 (-108 via DraftKings)
Game pick: North Texas ML (-108 via FanDuel)
"This is set to be one of the best weeknight games of the season between two programs that are clearly among the 10 best G5 teams in the country. That's why this line has already been moving plenty at betting sites. South Florida opened as a 2.5-point betting favorite, but some books now list the Bulls as a 1.5-point underdog while others are offering North Texas +1.
Still, I'm as confident in backing North Texas to win outright as I am about any pick I'm making in Week 7. The Mean Green have quietly been praying on their opponents and are rated as the second-best G5 team in the country by SP+ (No. 43). That's thanks in large part to an offense that Mestermaker leads, the running back combo of Caleb Hawkins and Makenzie McGill, and a deep pass-catching corps.
Morris' offense is No. 27 in EPA per pass and No. 15 in EPA per rush, which doesn't bode well for a South Florida defense that's No. 61 in SP+. And while Alex Golesh's hyper-fast attack showcases how dynamic Brown is behind center, there's not much around him. Brown could struggle against a North Texas defense that allows just 316.2 yards per game."
Player prop bet: Drew Mestemaker Over 1.5 passing TDs (-135 via BetMGM)
"The story of Mestemaker is almost unbelievable. A no-star recruit who walked on at North Texas after being a backup in high school, getting his shot as a freshman in the Mean Green's bowl game last year due to starter Chandler Morris entering the transfer portal. Then throwing for 393 yards and two touchdowns in his first start since the ninth grade.
Mestemaker then won the QB1 job coming into this season and has thrown 11 touchdowns to zero interceptions in five games, including two-plus three times. The redshirt freshman is one of just two QBs in the country with a big-time throw rate of at least 6% with a turnover-worthy play rate below 1%. He's as efficient as they come and can stress a South Florida defense that's ranked No. 73 in EPA per pass.
Morris has logged a long history of helping unheralded QBs develop (Baker Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes, Cam Ward, John Mateer), and Mestemaker could be next."