Mid-week college football action returns Wednesday with the Bears taking on the Blue Raiders at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN2. SBR's Isaiah Sirois breaks down the matchup in his Missouri State vs Middle Tennessee prediction.
Over/Under pick: Under 51 (-110 via Caesars)
Game pick: Missouri State moneyline (-132 via FanDuel)
"It is hard to overstate how sorry the Middle Tennessee football program is right now. The season began with a 20-point loss to FCS Austin Peay. Since then, the Blue Raiders have just one win, a one-point road victory over Nevada. This team lost by 24 points to Marshall at home – an opponent that Missouri State edged out by a point on the road. Middle Tennessee ranks 132nd in the FEI (which only counts FBS programs) and 181st in Sagarin’s rankings (which counts FBS and FCS programs).
Missouri State isn’t much better, but quarterback Jacob Clark inspires some confidence – although he is day-to-day with an injury. As a program, Missouri State edges Middle Tennessee in the FEI (125th) and Sagarin’s rankings (136th). Individually, Clark ranks an impressive 41st in passing efficiency (150.2), clearing his Middle Tennessee counterpart, 1,009th-ranked Nicholas Vattiato (116.5). If Clark can’t go, we’ll likely get Deuce Bailey, who was shaky as a passer but still threw for 57 yards and a score while adding 64 yards on the ground in relief of Clark recently.
The market is giving Middle Tennessee the benefit of home-field advantage, but there really isn’t any in Murfreesboro. The Blue Raiders are 0-2 at home so far this year and are 1-7 at home under head coach Derek Mason. They have the same record against the spread at home, too. Middle Tennessee is an embarrassing 4-13 against the spread under Mason, and I expect more of the same from this program on Wednesday night.
I am waiting for some quarterback news in this matchup, but I feel comfortable about buying Missouri State to win this one outright at -132."
Player prop bet: Shomari Lawrence Over 55.5 rushing yards (-113 via Caesars)
"With questions at quarterback for Missouri State, let’s back the team’s lead rusher for a big game on the ground. Clark could suit up, but if he does, the Bears will likely look to take some of the pressure off his shoulders by running more. Lawrence went Over this total against Western Kentucky with 78 yards on 16 carries, which speaks to his increased role in this offense without Clark. He also went Over against FCS Tennessee-Martin on only eight carries.
The Middle Tennessee rushing defense isn’t a concern. The Blue Raiders rank 109th in yards per carry allowed (5 YPC). Although the defensive front is unremarkable but not awful, the 1.4 open-field yards allowed per rush is an opportunity for Lawrence to tear off a chunk run and cash the Over. Missouri State’s offensive line doesn’t generate many line yards, but Lawrence and the team’s other rushers have helped the program average 1.3 second-level yards and 1.6 open-field yards per rush."
Over/Under pick: Under 51 (-110 via Caesars)
Game pick: Missouri State moneyline (-132 via FanDuel)
"It is hard to overstate how sorry the Middle Tennessee football program is right now. The season began with a 20-point loss to FCS Austin Peay. Since then, the Blue Raiders have just one win, a one-point road victory over Nevada. This team lost by 24 points to Marshall at home – an opponent that Missouri State edged out by a point on the road. Middle Tennessee ranks 132nd in the FEI (which only counts FBS programs) and 181st in Sagarin’s rankings (which counts FBS and FCS programs).
Missouri State isn’t much better, but quarterback Jacob Clark inspires some confidence – although he is day-to-day with an injury. As a program, Missouri State edges Middle Tennessee in the FEI (125th) and Sagarin’s rankings (136th). Individually, Clark ranks an impressive 41st in passing efficiency (150.2), clearing his Middle Tennessee counterpart, 1,009th-ranked Nicholas Vattiato (116.5). If Clark can’t go, we’ll likely get Deuce Bailey, who was shaky as a passer but still threw for 57 yards and a score while adding 64 yards on the ground in relief of Clark recently.
The market is giving Middle Tennessee the benefit of home-field advantage, but there really isn’t any in Murfreesboro. The Blue Raiders are 0-2 at home so far this year and are 1-7 at home under head coach Derek Mason. They have the same record against the spread at home, too. Middle Tennessee is an embarrassing 4-13 against the spread under Mason, and I expect more of the same from this program on Wednesday night.
I am waiting for some quarterback news in this matchup, but I feel comfortable about buying Missouri State to win this one outright at -132."
Player prop bet: Shomari Lawrence Over 55.5 rushing yards (-113 via Caesars)
"With questions at quarterback for Missouri State, let’s back the team’s lead rusher for a big game on the ground. Clark could suit up, but if he does, the Bears will likely look to take some of the pressure off his shoulders by running more. Lawrence went Over this total against Western Kentucky with 78 yards on 16 carries, which speaks to his increased role in this offense without Clark. He also went Over against FCS Tennessee-Martin on only eight carries.
The Middle Tennessee rushing defense isn’t a concern. The Blue Raiders rank 109th in yards per carry allowed (5 YPC). Although the defensive front is unremarkable but not awful, the 1.4 open-field yards allowed per rush is an opportunity for Lawrence to tear off a chunk run and cash the Over. Missouri State’s offensive line doesn’t generate many line yards, but Lawrence and the team’s other rushers have helped the program average 1.3 second-level yards and 1.6 open-field yards per rush."