The 3-0 Horned Frogs take on the 3-1 Sun Devils in Big 12 action Friday night at 9:00 PM ET on FOX. SBR's Isaiah Sirois shares his bets as part of his TCU vs Arizona State prediction:
Over/Under Pick: Over 54.5 (-110 bet365)
Best Bet: TCU Moneyline (+130 Caesars)
"Back TCU to cover and win. The Frogs are the better team, but with them getting a field goal, the market believes this is a pick’em on a neutral site. I disagree, and so do the analytics. The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) makes this a pick’em at Arizona State’s home field – and that model gives the Sun Devils credit for much of last year’s run, which relied on departed star running back Cam Skattebo.
It’s impossible to overstate how much worse Arizona State looks without Skattebo. Last year, the Sun Devils ended the season ranked 33rd in yards per play (6.1). This year, they rank a dreadful 85th (5.2) through four games. Skattebo’s contributions as a rusher and receiver haven’t been replicated – no one has come close to filling in for the 178.1 scrimmage yards he averaged per game.
Meanwhile, TCU looks just as good as last year – if not better. Last year’s offense, led by quarterback Josh Hoover, ranked 25th in yards per play (6.1). This year, the team ranks 11th (7.0) through three games, which included statement wins over Bill Belichick’s UNC and crosstown rival SMU. Spread your exposure at Caesars across TCU +3 at -110 (52.4%) and TCU moneyline at +130 (43.5%)."
Player Prop Pick: Raleek Brown Under 57.5 rushing yards (-115 BetMGM)
"Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham has rotated his running backs heavily. Raleek Brown leads the team in rushing yards (372) and attempts (56), but he wasn’t a huge piece of the offense in the opener. He has to share the backfield with Kanye Udoh, who ranks second among running backs in rushing yards (156) and attempts (39), and Kyson Brown, who ranks third in yards (93) and attempts (11) after suffering an injury versus Mississippi State.
Dillingham appears willing to ride the hot hand. That could be good news for Raleek Brown’s volume, but against a TCU defense that ranks 17th in yards allowed per rush attempt (2.6), it could also lead to Udoh or Kyson Brown rotating in earlier than usual. Raleek Brown’s 75-yard scamper against Texas State balloons his yards per rush attempt to 6.6, but he is averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt against Power Four teams.
It also helps that Raleek Brown is coming off a 21-carry performance at Baylor on Saturday. With so much work and a shorter week to prepare – and Kyson Brown apparently feeling better – Dillingham could also opt to rotate more heavily just to keep his backs fresh. Fade Raleek Brown by buying him to stay Under 57.5 rushing yards."
TCU vs Arizona State Best Odds:
Can TCU pull off the upset on the road?
Over/Under Pick: Over 54.5 (-110 bet365)
Best Bet: TCU Moneyline (+130 Caesars)
"Back TCU to cover and win. The Frogs are the better team, but with them getting a field goal, the market believes this is a pick’em on a neutral site. I disagree, and so do the analytics. The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) makes this a pick’em at Arizona State’s home field – and that model gives the Sun Devils credit for much of last year’s run, which relied on departed star running back Cam Skattebo.
It’s impossible to overstate how much worse Arizona State looks without Skattebo. Last year, the Sun Devils ended the season ranked 33rd in yards per play (6.1). This year, they rank a dreadful 85th (5.2) through four games. Skattebo’s contributions as a rusher and receiver haven’t been replicated – no one has come close to filling in for the 178.1 scrimmage yards he averaged per game.
Meanwhile, TCU looks just as good as last year – if not better. Last year’s offense, led by quarterback Josh Hoover, ranked 25th in yards per play (6.1). This year, the team ranks 11th (7.0) through three games, which included statement wins over Bill Belichick’s UNC and crosstown rival SMU. Spread your exposure at Caesars across TCU +3 at -110 (52.4%) and TCU moneyline at +130 (43.5%)."
Player Prop Pick: Raleek Brown Under 57.5 rushing yards (-115 BetMGM)
"Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham has rotated his running backs heavily. Raleek Brown leads the team in rushing yards (372) and attempts (56), but he wasn’t a huge piece of the offense in the opener. He has to share the backfield with Kanye Udoh, who ranks second among running backs in rushing yards (156) and attempts (39), and Kyson Brown, who ranks third in yards (93) and attempts (11) after suffering an injury versus Mississippi State.
Dillingham appears willing to ride the hot hand. That could be good news for Raleek Brown’s volume, but against a TCU defense that ranks 17th in yards allowed per rush attempt (2.6), it could also lead to Udoh or Kyson Brown rotating in earlier than usual. Raleek Brown’s 75-yard scamper against Texas State balloons his yards per rush attempt to 6.6, but he is averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt against Power Four teams.
It also helps that Raleek Brown is coming off a 21-carry performance at Baylor on Saturday. With so much work and a shorter week to prepare – and Kyson Brown apparently feeling better – Dillingham could also opt to rotate more heavily just to keep his backs fresh. Fade Raleek Brown by buying him to stay Under 57.5 rushing yards."
TCU vs Arizona State Best Odds:
Can TCU pull off the upset on the road?