Friday night ACC action sees the #8 Seminoles take on the 3-1 Cavaliers at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN. SBR's Rob Paul breaks down the action in his Florida State vs Virginia prediction:
Against The Spread Pick: Virginia +7 (-110 DraftKings)
Best Bet: Over 60 (-110 Caesars)
"This should be a fun one under the Friday night lights, with Virginia being for Over lovers so far this season. While the Cavs have struggled throughout Tony Elliott's tenure as head coach, a top 30 transfer portal class that was ranked No. 2 in transfer production coming into the season has helped turn this team around, particularly on offense.
Led by transfers like QB Chandler Morris (North Texas), running backs J'Mari Taylor (NC Central) and Harrison Waylee (Wyoming), and wide receivers Cam Ross (James Madison) and Trell Harris (Kent State), UVA is 4-0 to the Over this year. Des Kitchings' unit is No. 20 in EPA per rush and No. 15 in third-down success.
Virginia's defense, on the other hand, remains an issue - it's ranked outside the top 70 in both EPA per pass and rush. So Florida State should have no issues scoring, with an offensive unit that's top 10 in EPA per rush and pass and led by QB Tommy Castellanos, plus a plethora of playmakers that have the Seminoles 3-0 betting the Over this season.
One thing to keep an eye on for this game is the weather. It's supposed to rain leading up to the game, but not during - a slick field could help these explosive run games."
Player Prop Pick: Tommy Castellanos Over 45.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel)
"One of the most dynamic running QBs in the sport, Castellanos has looked like a prime Pat White in Gus Malzahn's offense this season. The former Boston College starter is top 25 in the country in missed tackles forced (8), 10-plus-yard runs (7), and rushing yards after contact per carry (3.62) among QBs.
Castellanos' ability as a runner is what makes the Seminoles' offense go, and while he's averaging just 46.3 rushing yards per game, a big reason why is that he hasn't had to do all that much. Castellanos played more snaps in Week 1 against Alabama (43), when he rushed for 78 yards on 16 carries, than he has in each of his last two games combined (40). In the wins over Kent State and East Texas A&M, he ran for a combined 61 yards on 11 carries.
With a regular workload against a Virginia defense that gave up over 200 rushing yards in its lone Power Four game this year, Castellanos should clear 54.5 yards with ease."
Florida State vs Virginia Best Odds:
Are the Noles in trouble here or will they stay undefeated and cover the spread?
Against The Spread Pick: Virginia +7 (-110 DraftKings)
Best Bet: Over 60 (-110 Caesars)
"This should be a fun one under the Friday night lights, with Virginia being for Over lovers so far this season. While the Cavs have struggled throughout Tony Elliott's tenure as head coach, a top 30 transfer portal class that was ranked No. 2 in transfer production coming into the season has helped turn this team around, particularly on offense.
Led by transfers like QB Chandler Morris (North Texas), running backs J'Mari Taylor (NC Central) and Harrison Waylee (Wyoming), and wide receivers Cam Ross (James Madison) and Trell Harris (Kent State), UVA is 4-0 to the Over this year. Des Kitchings' unit is No. 20 in EPA per rush and No. 15 in third-down success.
Virginia's defense, on the other hand, remains an issue - it's ranked outside the top 70 in both EPA per pass and rush. So Florida State should have no issues scoring, with an offensive unit that's top 10 in EPA per rush and pass and led by QB Tommy Castellanos, plus a plethora of playmakers that have the Seminoles 3-0 betting the Over this season.
One thing to keep an eye on for this game is the weather. It's supposed to rain leading up to the game, but not during - a slick field could help these explosive run games."
Player Prop Pick: Tommy Castellanos Over 45.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel)
"One of the most dynamic running QBs in the sport, Castellanos has looked like a prime Pat White in Gus Malzahn's offense this season. The former Boston College starter is top 25 in the country in missed tackles forced (8), 10-plus-yard runs (7), and rushing yards after contact per carry (3.62) among QBs.
Castellanos' ability as a runner is what makes the Seminoles' offense go, and while he's averaging just 46.3 rushing yards per game, a big reason why is that he hasn't had to do all that much. Castellanos played more snaps in Week 1 against Alabama (43), when he rushed for 78 yards on 16 carries, than he has in each of his last two games combined (40). In the wins over Kent State and East Texas A&M, he ran for a combined 61 yards on 11 carries.
With a regular workload against a Virginia defense that gave up over 200 rushing yards in its lone Power Four game this year, Castellanos should clear 54.5 yards with ease."
Florida State vs Virginia Best Odds:
Are the Noles in trouble here or will they stay undefeated and cover the spread?