Week 3 NCAAF Underdog Picks

[SBR Andy]

Starting a thread for best Week 3 underdog picks.

5 teams I think are live dogs:
Vandy +135
Southern Miss +145
Troy +160
Old Dominion +190
Texas A&M +215

Post your top upset plays here!

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Mike Spector shares his 3 best upset picks for NCAAF Week 3:

Troy (+160 via bet365) vs. Memphis

"Troy put the fear of God into Clemson last week while racing out to a 16-point lead before allowing 27 unanswered points. While the Tigers did play that game without promising young running back Jay Haynes and top wide receiver Antonio Williams, the Trojans’ effort in a tough environment in Death Valley bodes well for their chances of success this year.

Troy finished the game with only 15 fewer total yards and one fewer first down than Clemson, and the result may have been much different if not for committing 10 penalties.

Memphis is on the short list of AAC title contenders after coming off an 11-win season. But its defense still cannot be trusted against better competition, like when it allowed a combined 100 points during losses to Navy and UTSA."


Duke (+105 via Caesars) at Tulane

"Duke squandered a golden opportunity to earn its first win against a ranked nonconference opponent since 1971, when it lost to Illinois as 2.5-point underdogs last week. But I still hold faith in the dangerous dual-threat Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah, who's facing many of his old Tulane teammates this week.

As we saw in the NFL with the shootout between the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets, sometimes the quarterback facing his former team holds the advantage in that scenario. He knows what the defensive play-calling system and tendencies will be that day.

The Illini defense that returned nine starters and added depth through the transfer portal proved to be too much for the Blue Devils. But that shouldn't be the case against a Green Wave team that made the AAC Championship Game last year despite finishing 73rd in Defensive SP+."


California (+110 via Caesars) vs. Minnesota

"I saw everything I needed to know to be a firm believer in California freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele right from the onset. Sagapolutele was an efficient 20-of-30 passing with three touchdowns during a 19-point road win at Oregon State

I'm not as sold on Minnesota’s offense that redshirt freshman Drake Lindsey leads. He led the team to just one touchdown through three quarters in the Week 1 win over Buffalo. And head coach P.J. Fleck continued to be stubborn with the running game, even though the team averaged just 3.5 yards per carry on 44 attempts.

California started 3-0 last season before blowing a 25-point lead at home against Miami. Even though the Golden Bears went 2-5 in one-score games last year, they don't need much positive regression in that regard to pull off this upset."